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Africa > Malawi

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Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Malawi: Technical Assistance Report-Report on the Improving Estimates of Gross Domestic Product Mission (June 24–July 5, 2024)
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
The mission assisted the National Statistical Office of Malawi improve the quality of the published annual estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), progressed the use of Value Added Tax (VAT) data as a basis for developing quarterly series and supported development of current price estimates of GDP based on the expenditure approach (GDP-E). Specially, the mission reviewed the quality of the published GDP series and finalized Supply and Use Tables for 2017. This allowed the development of annual current price estimates of GDP-E. In addition, the mission initiated estimation of quarterly current price estimates of GDP for some activities based on data for company sales from Malawi’s VAT system.
Keywords:
GDP; Supply and Use Tables; expenditure GDP; quarterly GDP; administrative data; value added tax; Malawi.; business processing documentation; STA Department; estimates of GDP-E; consumption expenditure; VAT data; Value-added tax; Consumer price indexes; Gross fixed investment
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
Macro-Structural Policies and Income Inequality in Low-Income Developing Countries
Ms. Stefania Fabrizio
,
Davide Furceri
,
Mr. Rodrigo Garcia-Verdu
,
Ms. Grace B Li
,
Mrs. Sandra V Lizarazo Ruiz
,
Ms. Marina Mendes Tavares
,
Mr. Futoshi Narita
, and
Adrian Peralta
Despite sustained economic growth and rapid poverty reductions, income inequality remains stubbornly high in many low-income developing countries. This pattern is a concern as high levels of inequality can impair the sustainability of growth and macroeconomic stability, thereby also limiting countries’ ability to reach the Sustainable Development Goals. This underscores the importance of understanding how policies aimed at boosting economic growth affect income inequality. Using empirical and modeling techniques, the note confirms that macro-structural policies aimed at raising growth payoffs in low-income developing countries can have important distributional consequences, with the impact dependent on both the design of reforms and on country-specific economic characteristics. While there is no one-size-fits-all recipe, the note explores how governments can address adverse distributional consequences of reforms by designing reform packages to make pro-growth policies also more inclusive.
Keywords:
SDN; productivity; rate; revenue; Income inequality; growth; macro-structural policies; resource mobilization; infrastructure investment; financial sector reform; financial inclusion; agriculture; cash transfer program; higher-productivity sector; inequality in low-income developing countries; productivity gap; cost of capital; income fluctuation; Value-added tax; Income; Agricultural sector; Income distribution; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
Aid and Growth at the Regional Level
Axel Dreher
and
Steffen Lohmann
This paper brings the aid effectiveness debate to the sub-national level. We hypothesize the nonrobust results regarding the effects of aid on development in the previous literature to arise due to the effects of aid being insufficiently large to measurably affect aggregate outcomes. Using geocoded data for World Bank aid to a maximum of 2,221 first-level administrative regions (ADM1) and 54,167 second-level administrative regions (ADM2) in 130 countries over the 2000-2011 period, we test whether aid affects development, measured as nighttime light growth. Our preferred identification strategy exploits variation arising from interacting a variable that indicates whether or not a country has passed the threshold for receiving IDA's concessional aid with a recipient region's probability to receive aid, in a sample of 478 ADM1 regions and almost 8,400 ADM2 regions from 21 countries. Controlling for the levels of the interacted variables, the interaction provides a powerful and excludable instrument. Overall, we find significant correlations between aid and growth in ADM2 regions, but no causal effects.
Keywords:
WP; effect of aid; IDA-threshold effect; level of significance; term growth-effect; Aid Effectiveness; Geo-coding; World Bank; rainfall growth; aid-growth regression; growth OLS; IDA threshold; Agroindustries; Personal income; Population growth; Africa; Central Asia; South Asia; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
On the First-Round Effects of International Food Price Shocks: the Role of the Asset Market Structure
Mr. Rafael A Portillo
and
Luis-Felipe Zanna
We develop a tractable small open-economy model to study the first-round effects of international food price shocks in developing countries. We define first-round effects as changes in headline inflation that, holding core inflation constant, help implement relative price adjustments. The model features three goods (food, a generic traded good and a non-traded good), varying degrees of tradability of the food basket, and alternative international asset market structures (complete and incomplete markets, and financial autarky). First-round effects depend crucially on the asset market structure and the different transmission mechanisms they trigger. Under complete markets, inter-temporal substitution prevails, making the inflationary impact of international food prices proportional to the food share in consumption, which in developing economies is typically large. Under financial autarky, the income channel is dominant, and first-round effects are instead proportional to the country's food balance—the difference between the country's food endowment and its consumption—which in developing countries is typically small. The latter result holds regardless of the degree of food tradability. Incomplete markets yield a combination of the two extremes. Our results cast some doubt on the view that international food price shocks are inherently inflationary in developing countries.
Keywords:
WP; core inflation; Food Price Shocks; First-Round Effects; Developing Countries; New-Keynesian Models; Asset Market Structure; IM solution; nominal exchange rate; headline inflation; solution nest; inflation dynamics; market clearing condition; nominal price; Inflation; Consumption; Food prices; Securities markets; Commodity price shocks; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover Departmental Papers
Mozambique Rising: Building a New Tomorrow
Ms. Doris C Ross
,
Victor Duarte Lledo
,
Mr. Alex Segura-Ubiergo
,
Mr. Yuan Xiao
,
Ms. Iyabo Masha
,
Mr. Alun H. Thomas
, and
Mr. Keiichiro Inui
This publication highlights Mozambique’s remarkably strong growth over the two decades since the end of the civil war in 1992, as well as the major challenges that remain for the country to rise out of poverty and further its economic development. Chapters explore such topics as the role of megaprojects and their relationship to jobs and growth; infrastructure and public investment; Mozambique's quest for inclusive growth; developing the agricultural sector; and building a social protection floor.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; natural resource; foreign direct investment; private sector; exchange rate; economic growth; resource revenue; civil war; management system; primary sector; per capita income; distribution network; investment project; stabilization fund; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Public investment spending; Natural resources; Infrastructure; Agricultural sector; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa; Global; Southern Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Quality of the Recent High-Growth Episode in Sub-Saharan Africa
Mr. Marcelo Martinez
and
Mr. Montfort Mlachila
The paper explores the quality of the recent high-growth episode in sub-Saharan Africa by examining the following two questions: (i) what has been the nature and pattern of SSA growth over the past 15 years and how does it compare with previous episodes? (ii) has this growth had an impact on socially desirable outcomes, for example, improvements in health, education and poverty indicators? To do this, the paper first examines various aspects of the fundamentals of growth in SSA—levels, volatility, sources, etc.—according to various country analytical groupings. Second, it explores the extent to which the growth has been accompanied by improvements in social indicators. The paper finds that the quality of growth in SSA over the past 15 years has unambiguously improved, although progress in social indicators has been uneven.
Keywords:
WP; Real GDP growth; health outcome; TFP improvement; poverty-growth nexus; Quality of growth; social indicators; sub-Saharan Africa; income gain; per capita income; mortality rate; poverty-reducing pattern; gross investment; poverty outcome; Capita Real GDP growth; physical capital; poverty indicator; income difference; Total factor productivity; Personal income; Poverty reduction; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Malawi: Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper
International Monetary Fund
The Malawi Growth and Development Strategy II (MGDS-II) is a poverty reduction strategy for the period 2006–11, which is aimed at fulfilling Malawi’s future developmental aspiration—Vision 2020. The strategy identifies broad thematic areas and key priority areas to bring about sustained economic growth. A striking feature of this strategy is that the various governmental organizations, private sector, and general public are equal stakeholders. However, successful implementation of MGDS-II will largely depend on sound macroeconomic management and a stable political environment.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; economic growth; natural resources; private sector; climate change; MGDS II; community development; Infrastructure; Transportation; Global
Cover IMF Survey
IMF Survey, Volume 37, Issue 12
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Global financial crisis, Iceland, Poul Thomsen, IMF work program, IMF Shocks Facility, Kyrgyz Republic; Malawi; Exogenous Shocks Facility, Pakistan loan, IMF and social safety nets, gains against poverty in jeopardy, commodity prices slump, Latin America withstands shocks, Improved policies help Latin America, Asian Regional Outlook, Bosnia and Herzegovina, news briefs.
Keywords:
SV; print edition; IMF Survey; price; support bank recapitalization; IMF statement; oil demand World oil consumption; Social assistance spending; Commodity prices; Fuel prices; Oil consumption; Global; Asia and Pacific; Africa; Europe; Central Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Malawi: Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper: Growth and Development Strategy
International Monetary Fund
This paper focuses on the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) and the Malawi Growth and Development Strategy (MGDS). The MGDS is the overarching strategy for Malawi from fiscal year 2006/07 to 2010/2011. The purpose of the MGDS is to serve as a single reference document for policymakers in government; the private sector; civil society organizations; donors and cooperating partners and the general public on socioeconomic growth and development priorities for Malawi. The overriding philosophy of the MGDS is poverty reduction through sustainable economic growth and infrastructure development.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; natural resource; risk management; public goods; local government; net exporter; quality of life; transaction costs; value chain; corporate governance; civil society; exchange rate; HIV and AIDS; Infrastructure; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover Educating Children in Poor Countries
Educating Children in Poor Countries
Ms. Eva Jenkner
and
Mr. Arye L. Hillman

Abstract

In an ideal world, primary education would be universal and publicly financed, and all children would be able to attend school regardless of their parents’ ability or willingness to pay. In many poor countries, however, governments lack either the financial resources or the political will to provide each child with a basic education, despite the benefits that would accrue not only to individuals but to society as a whole. In some of these countries, parents cover part or all of the cost of their children’s education. This paper explores the pros and cons of user payments.

Keywords:
EI; user payment; school; School enrollment; school attendance; government; Community-managed school; school supplies; School fee; school administrator; school management; Personal income; South Asia; East Asia; Sub-Saharan Africa