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Africa > Malawi

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Malawi: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Malawi
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Malawi, a fragile state with one of the highest incidences of poverty, food insecurity and frequent weather-related shocks, has been severely affected by the pandemic. There are signs of gradual recovery and daily COVID-19 positive cases remain relatively low: real GDP growth in 2021 is projected to pick up to 2.2 percent from 0.9 percent in 2020 helped by a good harvest. However, inflation is expected to increase to 9 percent in 2021 from 8.6 percent in 2020, driven by increases in prices of fuel, fertilizer and food, leaving real per capita growth in the negative region.
Keywords:
financing gap; fund advice; private sector investment; governance issue; fiscal policy stance; soft commodity; Debt sustainability; International reserves; Africa; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover Growth and Adjustment in IMF-Supported Programs
Growth and Adjustment in IMF-Supported Programs
International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office

Abstract

This evaluation assesses how well IMF-supported programs helped to sustain economic growth while delivering adjustment needed for external viability over the period 2008–19. The evaluation finds that the Fund’s increasing attention to growth in the programs has delivered some positive results. Specifically, it does not find evidence of a consistent bias towards excessive austerity in IMF-supported programs. Indeed, programs have yielded growth benefits relative to a counterfactual of no Fund engagement and boosted post-program growth performance. Notwithstanding these positive findings, program growth outcomes consistently fell short of program projections. Such shortfalls imply less protection of incomes than intended, fuel adjustment fatigue and public opposition to reforms, and jeopardize progress towards external viability. The evaluation examines how different policy instruments were applied to support better growth outcomes while achieving needed adjustment. Fiscal policies typically incorporated growth-friendly measures but with mixed success. Despite some success in promoting reforms and growth, structural conditionalities were of relatively low depth and their potential growth benefits were not fully realized. Use of the exchange rate as a policy tool to support growth and external adjustment during programs was quite limited. Lastly, market debt operations were useful in some cases to restore debt sustainability and renew market access, yet sometimes were too little and too late to deliver the intended benefits. The evaluation concludes that the IMF should seek to further enhance program countries’ capacity to sustain activity while undertaking needed adjustment during the program and to enhance growth prospects beyond the program. Following this conclusion, the report sets out three recommendations aimed at strengthening attention to growth implications of IMF-supported programs, including the social and distributional consequences.

Keywords:
IMF programs; growth optimism; austerity bias; structural conditionality; debt sustainability; fiscal policy; exchange rate policy; PRGT program; debt operation; IMF support; reviews IMF policy; program objective; Fiscal consolidation; Real effective exchange rates; Structural reforms; Global; Middle East and Central Asia; West Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Caribbean; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
How do Climate Shocks Affect the Impact of FDI, ODA and Remittances on Economic Growth?
Alassane Drabo
The three main financial inflows to developing countries have largely increased during the last two decades, despite the large debate in the literature regarding their effects on economic growth which is not yet clear-cut. An emerging literature investigates the dependence of their effects on some country characteristics such as human and physical capital constraint, macroeconomic policy and institutional capacity. This paper extends the literature by arguing that climate shocks may undermine the effect of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), official development assistance (ODA) and migrants’ remittances on economic expansion. Based on neoclassical growth framework, the theoretical model indicates that FDI, ODA, and remittances improve economic growth, and the size of the effect increases with good absorptive capacity. However, climate shocks reduce this positive effect of financial flows in developing countries. Using a sample of low and middle-income countries from 1995 to 2018, the empirical investigation confirms the theoretical conclusions. Developing countries should build strong resilience to climate change. Actions are also needed at global level to reduce greenhouse gases emissions, and build strong structural resilience to climate shocks especially in developing countries.
Keywords:
inflows-economic growth nexus; effect of ODA; income group; role of Climate; effect of foreign direct investment; Climate change; Absorptive capacity; Foreign direct investment; Human capital; Middle East; East Asia; Asia and Pacific; North Africa; South Asia; Global
Cover IMF How To Notes
How to Assess the Benefits of Nonperforming Loan Disposal in Sub-Saharan Africa Using a Simple Analytical Framework
Irina Bunda
,
Luc Eyraud
, and
Zhangrui Wang
The coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis, which has hit financial systems across Africa, is likely to deteriorate banks’ balance sheets. The largest threat to banks pertains to their loan portfolios, since many borrowers have faced a sharp collapse in their income, and therefore have difficulty repaying their obligations as they come due. This could lead to a sharp increase in nonperforming loans (NPLs) in the short to medium term.
Keywords:
Nonperforming loan disposal; Excel template; disposal strategy; raise capital requirement; loan portfolio; management cost; Nonperforming loans; Loans; Distressed assets; Financial statements; Collateral; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Malawi: Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Malawi
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Presidential elections in June 2020, a re-run of the canceled 2019 elections, resulted in a change of government, with President Chakwera securing 59 percent of the vote. The new administration is facing a rapid acceleration of COVID-19 cases in Malawi and adverse spillovers from continued deterioration of the global and regional economic situation, significantly worsening the macroeconomic outlook. Consequently, an additional urgent balance of payments need of 2.9 percent of GDP has arisen—bringing the total external financing gap in 2020 to 5.0 percent of GDP. The authorities have requested an additional disbursement of 52.1 percent of quota (SDR 72.31 million) under the “exogenous shock” window of the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF), where 30 percent of the disbursement would finance the government budget. This follows the May 1, 2020 Board approval of a 47.9 percent of quota RCF disbursement (without budget support). The authorities have cancelled the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and expressed a strong interest in discussing a new ECF—better aligned with their new long-term growth and reform strategy—once conditions permit.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; emergency financing request; IMF lending tracker; RCF resource; RCF disbursement; IMF's emergency financing; banking supervision effort; disbursement of SDR; RCF II; Debt relief; COVID-19; Budget planning and preparation; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Review of Enhanced Access Limits Under the Rapid Credit Facility and Rapid Financing Instrument
International Monetary Fund
The temporary increase in access limits under IMF emergency financing instruments will expire on October 5, 2020, unless extended. Access limits under emergency instruments (the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) and Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI)) were increased in April 2020 for a period of six months, from 50 to 100 percent of quota annually and from 100 to 150 percent of quota cumulatively. The increased limits are subject to review and can be extended before their expiration. It is proposed to extend the period of higher access limits for emergency financing for a period of six months, through April 6, 2021. Against a background of continued pandemic-related disruption, staff expects there could be significant demand for emergency lending in the October 2020–April 2021 period, including from countries with pending requests and from countries that received emergency support at levels less than the maximum amounts available. A six-month extension would give more time for countries to benefit from higher access limits under emergency financing.
Keywords:
PP; financing; emergency financing instrument; HA procedure; RCF financing request; coronavirus pandemic; misuse of emergency financing; Emergency assistance; Balance of payments need; Credit; Global; COVID-19
Cover IMF Working Papers
Tax Revenues in Fragile and Conflict-Affected States—Why Are They Low and How Can We Raise Them?
Mr. Bernardin Akitoby
,
Mr. Jiro Honda
, and
Keyra Primus
Raising revenues has been a formidable challenge for fragile and conflict-affected states (FCS), a fact confirmed once again in the COVID-19 crisis. Nonetheless, achieving sizable gains in tax collection in fragile environments is not impossible. This paper—with empirical analyses and case studies—contributes to policy discussions on tax reform in such challenging environments. Our analyses show that many FCS achieved some recovery of tax revenues, even though they found it challenging to sustain the momentum beyond three years. We also find that changes in the quality of institutions (e.g., government effectiveness and control of corruption) are a key contributory factor to their tax performance (much more so than for non-FCS). Next, we look into the tax increase episodes of four countries (Liberia, Malawi, Nepal, and the Solomon Islands). Although each FCS is unique, their experiences suggest two lessons: (i) tax reforms can be pursued even with initially weak institutions; and (ii) strong political commitment is important to sustain reform efforts and realize long-lasting, sizable gains.
Keywords:
WP; customs administration reform; reform effort; modernization program; governance issue; revenue administration reform; tax administration modernization program; income tax; tax reform; country authorities; tax administration reform; customs duty; tax reform strategy; governance variable; effectiveness index; Tax administration core functions; Tax collection; Customs administration core functions; Excises; Middle East; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global; Tax Revenue Mobilization; Fragile; Conflict-Affected States; government effectiveness; administration reform
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Malawi: Request for Disbursement under the Rapid Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Malawi
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses Malawi’s Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF). The coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic is having a severe impact on Malawi, creating an urgent balance of payments need. The authorities have been proactive in mitigating the impact of the pandemic, including through increased spending on health care and social assistance, supporting small and medium enterprises, bolstering farmers’ incomes and ensuring food security through purchase and storage of agricultural harvests, and easing liquidity constraints in the banking system. The IMF’s emergency financing under the RCF is expected to help the authorities meet the large external financing gap and catalyze further assistance from the international community. Additional concessional donor support will be critical to close the remaining external financing gap and facilitate the needed interventions to ease the economic and social impacts of the pandemic, while preserving Malawi’s hard-earned macroeconomic stability. A widening of the budget deficit is appropriate in the near-term, given the fiscal costs associated with the economic slowdown and critical additional health care and social spending needs, which should be executed transparently and targeted to the most affected parts of society.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; financing; pandemic; emergency financing request; IMF lending tracker; revenue shortfall; development spending; banking system liquidity constraint; financial support; current account; debt relief; Imports; Debt service; Global; COVID-19
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Malawi: Second and Third Reviews Under the Three-Year Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Requests for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria and Augmentation of Access-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Malawi
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses Malawi’s Second and Third Reviews Under the Three-Year Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Requests for Waivers of NonObservance of Performance Criteria and Augmentation of Access. Program-supported structural reforms advanced, addressing several important gaps that had previously been identified in public financial management. All quantitative performance criteria were met except those on the primary balance, which were missed largely due to faster than envisaged implementation of rural electrification and development projects, unexpected spending for disaster relief and to ensure safety during elections and post-election protests. The authorities aim to entrench macroeconomic stability, preserve debt sustainability, and advance governance reforms while attaining higher, more inclusive, and resilient growth. Essential reconstruction and security spending will be accommodated by reprioritizing spending and a modest relaxation in the FY 2019/20 domestic primary balance target. Monetary policy remains targeted on containing inflation and exchange rate flexibility will buffer shocks and preserve competitiveness. Financial sector resilience continues to be strengthened.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; ECF arrangement; SDR; resilience to climate change; Malawi's resilience; reconstruction; equivalent of SDR; debt service; Fiscal stance; Africa; Global; IMF's transparency policy; IMF arrangement
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Malawi: First Review Under the Three-Year Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Requests for Modification and Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Malawi
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Malawi’s economic growth remains moderate, reflecting a weak agricultural harvest and continued electricity shortages. Fiscal deficits continue to be financed domestically, as donor funding remains constrained by governance concerns since the 2013 cashgate scandal, resulting in an increasing public debt burden. Presidential elections are scheduled for mid-2019. Program performance. Most quantitative performance criteria (QPC) were met at end-June 2018, with significant overperformance on international reserves and the reduction in Reserve Bank of Malawi (RBM) holdings of government securities. The QPC on the primary fiscal balance was missed by 0.9 percent of GDP due to expenditure overruns. The continuous QPC on new non-concessional external debt was missed due to a technical oversight in the Technical Memorandum of Understanding. Based on corrective measures, the authorities request waivers of non-observance. Two structural benchmarks were observed and most of the rest have been completed with delay.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; ECF arrangement; anti-corruption effort; support governance reform; exchange rate; budget support; feasibility study; tax reform measure; Fiscal stance; Budget planning and preparation; Global; Africa