Asia and Pacific > Maldives

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Ruchir Agarwal
,
Vybhavi Balasundharam
,
Patrick Blagrave
,
Mr. Eugenio M Cerutti
,
Ragnar Gudmundsson
, and
Racha Mousa
The South Asia region is both a large contributor to climate change and also one of the regions most vulnerable to climate change. This paper provides an overview of the region’s vulnerabilities, national committments to mitigate emissions, and national policies to adapt to a changing climate. The paper also discusses policy measures that may be needed to make further progress on both mitigation and adapatation. Our analysis suggests that while substantial progress is being made, there remains scope to adopt a more cohesive strategy to achieve the region’s goals—including by improving the monitoring and tracking of adaptation spending, and by laying the groundwork to equitably increase the effective price of carbon while protecting low-income and vulnerable households in the region.
Mr. Giovanni Melina
and
Marika Santoro
The increased likelihood of adverse climate-change-related shocks calls for building resilient infrastructure in the Maldives. Fulfilling these infrastructure needs requires a comprehensive analysis of investment plans, including with respect to their degree of climate resilience, their impact on future economic prospects, and their funding costs and sources. This paper analyzes these challenges, through calibrating a general equilibrium model. The main finding is that there is a significant dividend associated with building resilient infrastructure. Under worsened climate conditions, the cumulative output gain from investing in more resilient technologies increases up to a factor of two. However, given the Maldives’ limited fiscal space, particularly after COVID-19, the international community should also step up cooperation efforts. We also show that it is financially convenient for donors to help build resilience prior to the occurrence of a natural disasters rather than helping finance the reconstruction ex-post.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2005 Article IV Consultation with Maldives highlights that the Maldives suffered devastating damage from the December 2004 tsunami. Although human casualties were limited, damage to infrastructure has been extensive, with the cost of reconstruction estimated at nearly a half of gross domestic product. Reconstruction work has progressed slowly in 2005 but the pace is picking up. Recovery work has been slow due to insufficient coordination, problems in local consultation, and limited management capacity. The government and donors have been addressing these problems and the pace of implementation is finally accelerating. The 2006 budget is highly expansionary and threatens sustainability. The government has added to the fiscal deficit through new recruits, expansion of untargeted social programs, and a large domestically funded public investment program while using optimistic revenue projection. Fiscal reforms are of high priority. The report also explains that monetary policy should be geared to sustaining the peg arrangement based on indirect management. The objective of monetary policy should be to support the peg arrangement, which has served well as a credible nominal anchor.
International Monetary Fund
Small developing states are disproportionately vulnerable to natural disasters. On average, the annual cost of disasters for small states is nearly 2 percent of GDP—more than four times that for larger countries. This reflects a higher frequency of disasters, adjusted for land area, as well as greater vulnerability to severe disasters. About 9 percent of disasters in small states involve damage of more than 30 percent of GDP, compared to less than 1 percent for larger states. Greater exposure to disasters has important macroeconomic effects on small states, resulting in lower investment, lower GDP per capita, higher poverty, and a more volatile revenue base.
International Monetary Fund
The Joint Staff Advisory Note report assesses that Maldives has achieved notable development progress through sound macroeconomic management, tourism development, and public service provision improvement under the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP). Executive Directors emphasized the need to strengthen the fiscal policy framework, develop institutions, implement structural reforms and a realistic budget to mitigating risks, and ensure macroeconomic stability. Directors welcomed the Seventh National Development Plan, the new Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper, and stressed the need for significant efforts to ensure the successful implementation of the economic development program.
International Monetary Fund
This paper reviews the Maldives’s Use of IMF Resources and Request for Emergency Assistance. The authorities have requested a purchase of an amount equivalent to SDR 4.1 million (50 percent of quota) under the IMF’s policy on emergency assistance related to natural disasters. The authorities have requested the provision of subsidies to reduce the rate of charge on these resources. IMF staff supports these requests given the exceptional severity of the tsunami’s economic impact and the authorities’ record of sound macroeconomic management and good cooperation with the IMF.