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Asia and Pacific > Maldives

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Maldives: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Maldives
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The 2021 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Maldives is recovering after the historical 2020 fall in tourism, aided by a rapid coronavirus disease 2019-vaccination program rollout. While the prompt and comprehensive policy approach in early 2020 was effective, a more prolonged pandemic and ambitious infrastructure projects are further weakening large pre-pandemic fiscal and external vulnerabilities. The strong (but still partial) recovery in tourism since 2020Q4 has improved the outlook, but fiscal and external positions are projected to remain weak over the medium term, underpinned by current capital expenditure plans. The Maldives has both a high risk of external debt distress and high overall risk of debt distress. The team agreed that a tighter monetary policy stance might be needed to ensure compatibility with the exchange rate peg, lower external imbalances and build-up reserves. They supported the Maldives Monetary Authority’s ongoing efforts to modernize monetary policy and the foreign exchange operations framework, including those aimed at eliminating exchange rate restrictions and multiple currency practices.
Keywords:
positivity rate; program rollout; MMA authorities; staff projection; staff supplement; Maldivian authorities; MMA advance; COVID-19; Capital spending; South Asia; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Maldives: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Maldives
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The 2022 Article IV Consultation discusses that Maldives’ economic activity rebounded strongly from the pandemic-induced contraction, supported by the authorities’ decisive policy measures. Fiscal and external vulnerabilities remain elevated due to rising subsidies, high capital spending, and an increased interest burden. The Maldives has a high risk of external debt distress and a high overall risk of debt distress. Inflation has risen but is relatively contained due to price subsidies. Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside, including a possible sharp slowdown in key source markets for tourism, high commodity prices, and tighter global financial conditions. A resumption of tourist arrivals from China is an upside risk to growth. The ongoing economic recovery provides an opportunity to swiftly implement a comprehensive set of reforms to reduce fiscal, debt, and external vulnerabilities, and strengthen economic resilience. The report recommends that financial sector policies should remain vigilant to safeguard financial stability considering the large exposure of the banking sector to the sovereign and the expiration of pandemic-related lending support schemes.
Keywords:
parliament approval; MMA authorities; staff appraisal; market in the Maldives; SARTTAC mission; government policy; Government debt management; Capital spending; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Maldives: Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Maldives
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This paper focuses on Maldives’ Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility. The pandemic is inflicting significant damage, especially on tourism activity, and is expected to result in substantial weakening of the Maldives’ gross domestic product growth, balance of payments and the fiscal position. The government of the Maldives acted quickly to put in place containment measures and is seeking support from the international community for its crisis response plan. The authorities have responded quickly to the coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak, including specific travel restrictions and subsequently more comprehensive travel measures. They also put together a set of measures to alleviate its social and economic fallout. The temporary fiscal accommodation is appropriate. The authorities will reprioritize and cut capital expenditures, redirecting funds as needed to combat the pandemic and provide temporary and well-targeted support to the most vulnerable households and businesses, while maintaining high standards of transparency and governance. The authorities remain committed to fiscal and debt sustainability over the medium term. They intend to achieve a balanced fiscal adjustment based on the reduction of capital spending to historical averages, recurrent expenditure discipline, and revenue mobilization.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; financing; financing gap; debt; fund assistance; financial support; containment measure; discussion of the Maldives; debt management strategy; Tourism; Debt sustainability; Capital spending; Global; COVID-19; Debt sustainability analysis
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Maldives: Technical Assistance Report-Public Investment Management Assessment
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This Technical Assistance Report discusses that in the Maldives, public investment trends have been influenced by a number of contextual factors including the economic dependency on tourism, the high exposure to climate change, and the recent democratization. The mission assessed the strength and quality of public investment management (PIM) in the Maldives using the IMF Public Investment Management framework, based on the three phases of the PIM cycle. The report highlights that the most significant weakness in the PIM and the wider Public Financial Management system is poor budget credibility and budget execution. However, some progress has been made in improving PIM institutions, and reforms are ongoing in a number of areas. It is imperative to strengthen the project appraisal process by developing a standard methodology for project appraisal, publishing this methodology and verifying that it is consistently applied by the line ministries. It is also important to develop a framework for ex-post evaluations and ensure that lessons learned from past projects are incorporated in revised guidelines and practices.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; cash management; investment project; public investment; address government policy priority; budget process; capital stock; cash flow; procurement regulation; central government; General government investment; oversight body; short term; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Budget planning and preparation; Public investment spending; Capital budget; Capital spending; Asia and Pacific; Global