Asia and Pacific > Maldives

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Ozlem Aydin
,
Claude P Wendling
,
Bryn Welham
,
Eivind Tandberg
, and
Juana Aristizabal
An IMF Team assessed the green public financial management (PFM) practices, drawing on the IMF’s Green PFM framework, and conducted a Climate Module of the Public Investment Management Assessment (C-PIMA) in the Maldives. It identified strengths related to the recent public investment management (PIM) reforms, but also several remaining priorities along the budget and investment cycle in the Maldives that affect the efficiency, and its capacity to respond to climate change-related challenges. The mission team makes six priority recommendations in integrating climate change considerations in PFM and PIM practices, prioritized based on the country's capacity, financial resources, and ongoing reform initiatives.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The 2021 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Maldives is recovering after the historical 2020 fall in tourism, aided by a rapid coronavirus disease 2019-vaccination program rollout. While the prompt and comprehensive policy approach in early 2020 was effective, a more prolonged pandemic and ambitious infrastructure projects are further weakening large pre-pandemic fiscal and external vulnerabilities. The strong (but still partial) recovery in tourism since 2020Q4 has improved the outlook, but fiscal and external positions are projected to remain weak over the medium term, underpinned by current capital expenditure plans. The Maldives has both a high risk of external debt distress and high overall risk of debt distress. The team agreed that a tighter monetary policy stance might be needed to ensure compatibility with the exchange rate peg, lower external imbalances and build-up reserves. They supported the Maldives Monetary Authority’s ongoing efforts to modernize monetary policy and the foreign exchange operations framework, including those aimed at eliminating exchange rate restrictions and multiple currency practices.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The 2022 Article IV Consultation discusses that Maldives’ economic activity rebounded strongly from the pandemic-induced contraction, supported by the authorities’ decisive policy measures. Fiscal and external vulnerabilities remain elevated due to rising subsidies, high capital spending, and an increased interest burden. The Maldives has a high risk of external debt distress and a high overall risk of debt distress. Inflation has risen but is relatively contained due to price subsidies. Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside, including a possible sharp slowdown in key source markets for tourism, high commodity prices, and tighter global financial conditions. A resumption of tourist arrivals from China is an upside risk to growth. The ongoing economic recovery provides an opportunity to swiftly implement a comprehensive set of reforms to reduce fiscal, debt, and external vulnerabilities, and strengthen economic resilience. The report recommends that financial sector policies should remain vigilant to safeguard financial stability considering the large exposure of the banking sector to the sovereign and the expiration of pandemic-related lending support schemes.
Ms. Mercedes Garcia-Escribano
,
Ms. Tewodaj Mogues
,
Marian Moszoro
, and
Mauricio Soto
South Asia has experienced significant progress in improving human and physical capital over the past few decades. Within the region, India has become a global economic powerhouse with enormous development potential ahead. To foster human and economic development, India has shown a strong commitment to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) Agenda. This paper focuses on the medium-term development challenges that South Asia, and in particular India, faces to ensure substantial progress along the SDGs by 2030. We estimate the additional spending needed in critical areas of human capital (health and education) and physical capital (water and sanitation, electricity, and roads). We document progress on these five sectors for India relative to other South Asian countries and discuss implications for policy and reform.
Mr. Giovanni Melina
and
Marika Santoro
The increased likelihood of adverse climate-change-related shocks calls for building resilient infrastructure in the Maldives. Fulfilling these infrastructure needs requires a comprehensive analysis of investment plans, including with respect to their degree of climate resilience, their impact on future economic prospects, and their funding costs and sources. This paper analyzes these challenges, through calibrating a general equilibrium model. The main finding is that there is a significant dividend associated with building resilient infrastructure. Under worsened climate conditions, the cumulative output gain from investing in more resilient technologies increases up to a factor of two. However, given the Maldives’ limited fiscal space, particularly after COVID-19, the international community should also step up cooperation efforts. We also show that it is financially convenient for donors to help build resilience prior to the occurrence of a natural disasters rather than helping finance the reconstruction ex-post.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This paper focuses on Maldives’ Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility. The pandemic is inflicting significant damage, especially on tourism activity, and is expected to result in substantial weakening of the Maldives’ gross domestic product growth, balance of payments and the fiscal position. The government of the Maldives acted quickly to put in place containment measures and is seeking support from the international community for its crisis response plan. The authorities have responded quickly to the coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak, including specific travel restrictions and subsequently more comprehensive travel measures. They also put together a set of measures to alleviate its social and economic fallout. The temporary fiscal accommodation is appropriate. The authorities will reprioritize and cut capital expenditures, redirecting funds as needed to combat the pandemic and provide temporary and well-targeted support to the most vulnerable households and businesses, while maintaining high standards of transparency and governance. The authorities remain committed to fiscal and debt sustainability over the medium term. They intend to achieve a balanced fiscal adjustment based on the reduction of capital spending to historical averages, recurrent expenditure discipline, and revenue mobilization.
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This Technical Assistance Report discusses that in the Maldives, public investment trends have been influenced by a number of contextual factors including the economic dependency on tourism, the high exposure to climate change, and the recent democratization. The mission assessed the strength and quality of public investment management (PIM) in the Maldives using the IMF Public Investment Management framework, based on the three phases of the PIM cycle. The report highlights that the most significant weakness in the PIM and the wider Public Financial Management system is poor budget credibility and budget execution. However, some progress has been made in improving PIM institutions, and reforms are ongoing in a number of areas. It is imperative to strengthen the project appraisal process by developing a standard methodology for project appraisal, publishing this methodology and verifying that it is consistently applied by the line ministries. It is also important to develop a framework for ex-post evaluations and ensure that lessons learned from past projects are incorporated in revised guidelines and practices.
International Monetary Fund
This 2008 Article IV Consultation highlights that the main challenge for Maldives is to contain fiscal expenditures that have increased sharply following the tsunami. Expenditure has reached extraordinarily high levels by international and historical standards, with the majority of the increase in domestically financed expenditure unrelated to the tsunami. Executive Directors were encouraged that Maldives’ economy has rebounded strongly from the December 2004 tsunami. Directors have commended the authorities for implementing the Maldives Monetary Authority Act by appointing an independent governor.