Asia and Pacific > Maldives

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Ozlem Aydin
,
Claude P Wendling
,
Bryn Welham
,
Eivind Tandberg
, and
Juana Aristizabal
An IMF Team assessed the green public financial management (PFM) practices, drawing on the IMF’s Green PFM framework, and conducted a Climate Module of the Public Investment Management Assessment (C-PIMA) in the Maldives. It identified strengths related to the recent public investment management (PIM) reforms, but also several remaining priorities along the budget and investment cycle in the Maldives that affect the efficiency, and its capacity to respond to climate change-related challenges. The mission team makes six priority recommendations in integrating climate change considerations in PFM and PIM practices, prioritized based on the country's capacity, financial resources, and ongoing reform initiatives.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The 2024 Article IV Consultation highlights that despite headwinds from the war in Ukraine, the Maldives’ economic recovery from coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic has shown resilience. Real gross domestic product growth is estimated to moderate to 4.4 percent in 2023, before gradually rising to 5.2 percent in 2024. The discussions focus on comprehensive policy reforms to address fiscal vulnerabilities, stem rising balance of payments pressures, and safeguard financial stability, while supporting sustained strong and inclusive growth. Front-loaded fiscal adjustments, accompanied by tighter monetary and macroprudential policies, are urgently needed to reduce vulnerabilities and restore sustainability of public finances. Adopting macroprudential policies will help mitigate systemic risks stemming from sovereign-bank nexus. Financial sector oversight and crisis management should be further enhanced. Strengthening institutions to support climate adaptation and mitigation efforts and mobilize climate finance is crucial. Improving the business climate, addressing governance and corruption vulnerabilities, and enhancing skill developments will help support strong and inclusive growth.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This paper presents a technical note on bank stress testing and climate risks analysis in Maldives. Although the Maldives’ economy has rebounded strongly from the pandemic-induced contraction, macro and financial vulnerabilities remain. The stress test results broadly corroborated the identified vulnerabilities and quantified them. The climate risk analysis considered a micro approach that shocks banks’ immovable asset related loans under three climate scenarios. The system appears well capitalized, although capital ratios are biased upward by large government paper holdings with zero risk weights. The results of the solvency stress test corroborate that banks are less vulnerable to credit risk than they are to the impact of a possible unraveling of the sovereign–bank nexus. Banks’ nonperforming loans (NPL) ratios are projected to increase slightly in the baseline and moderately under stress. The resulting additional loan loss provisions are easily offset by ample pre-provision income.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The 2022 Article IV Consultation discusses that Maldives’ economic activity rebounded strongly from the pandemic-induced contraction, supported by the authorities’ decisive policy measures. Fiscal and external vulnerabilities remain elevated due to rising subsidies, high capital spending, and an increased interest burden. The Maldives has a high risk of external debt distress and a high overall risk of debt distress. Inflation has risen but is relatively contained due to price subsidies. Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside, including a possible sharp slowdown in key source markets for tourism, high commodity prices, and tighter global financial conditions. A resumption of tourist arrivals from China is an upside risk to growth. The ongoing economic recovery provides an opportunity to swiftly implement a comprehensive set of reforms to reduce fiscal, debt, and external vulnerabilities, and strengthen economic resilience. The report recommends that financial sector policies should remain vigilant to safeguard financial stability considering the large exposure of the banking sector to the sovereign and the expiration of pandemic-related lending support schemes.
Ruchir Agarwal
,
Vybhavi Balasundharam
,
Patrick Blagrave
,
Mr. Eugenio M Cerutti
,
Ragnar Gudmundsson
, and
Racha Mousa
The South Asia region is both a large contributor to climate change and also one of the regions most vulnerable to climate change. This paper provides an overview of the region’s vulnerabilities, national committments to mitigate emissions, and national policies to adapt to a changing climate. The paper also discusses policy measures that may be needed to make further progress on both mitigation and adapatation. Our analysis suggests that while substantial progress is being made, there remains scope to adopt a more cohesive strategy to achieve the region’s goals—including by improving the monitoring and tracking of adaptation spending, and by laying the groundwork to equitably increase the effective price of carbon while protecting low-income and vulnerable households in the region.
International Monetary Fund
Small developing states are disproportionately vulnerable to natural disasters. On average, the annual cost of disasters for small states is nearly 2 percent of GDP—more than four times that for larger countries. This reflects a higher frequency of disasters, adjusted for land area, as well as greater vulnerability to severe disasters. About 9 percent of disasters in small states involve damage of more than 30 percent of GDP, compared to less than 1 percent for larger states. Greater exposure to disasters has important macroeconomic effects on small states, resulting in lower investment, lower GDP per capita, higher poverty, and a more volatile revenue base.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This paper discusses recent economic developments, outlook, and risks of Maldives’ economy. Maldives living standards have risen to middle-income levels over the past two decades driven by tourism development. The country’s geography creates fiscal challenges, and the economy has faced persistent fiscal deficits over the past decade. The economy is highly exposed to climate change, a fact that further adds to fiscal costs. The real economy outperformed its peers in the past few years, but tourism slowed last year. Public debt is high and on a rising trajectory. A detailed national development strategy would ensure that investment plans are well coordinated and bring about bigger growth dividends.
International Monetary Fund
The Seventh National Development Plan of the Maldives envisages sustainable development with economic growth, social equity, environment protection, and good governance. The report assesses the policies and strategies needed to achieve the goals as well as the agencies responsible to implement the policies. It also summarizes the principles, vision, and goals of the National Development Plan (NDP) and assesses the economic, spatial, social development, and governing factors of the plan. It discusses the priorities, responsibilities, and accountabilities for development, and assessed that monitoring and evaluation is necessary for higher performance and greater accountability.