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Asia and Pacific > Maldives

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Maldives: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note on Macroprudential Policy
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This Technical Note on Maldives discusses macroprudential policy. The creation of a macroprudential committee with a clear mandate and decision-making powers is recommended. This committee would rely on a well-resourced financial stability unit, acting as a secretariat and providing data-driven recommendations. The Maldives Monetary Authority (MMA) should consider creating a set of early warning indicators and further develop its macroprudential toolkit. A comprehensive dashboard of both broad-based and sectoral indicators would help monitor systemic risks. Indicators of credit, real-estate development, corporate performance, and household indebtedness should be considered for implementation. In addition, the introduction of several key macroprudential instruments would help prevent the emergence of systemic risk. MMA should follow through on its plan to introduce two household-related instruments. The Financial Sector Assessment Program team recommends the development of additional instruments to safeguard bank liquidity and reduce the currency mismatch of banks as well as other instruments recommended by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision.
Keywords:
IMF-World Bank Financial Sector Assessment Program; housing development finance corporation; capital market development authority; FSAP's finding; Maldives finance; Financial sector stability; Financial Sector Assessment Program; Macroprudential policy; Systemic risk; Liquidity requirements; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Maldives: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Maldives
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The 2022 Article IV Consultation discusses that Maldives’ economic activity rebounded strongly from the pandemic-induced contraction, supported by the authorities’ decisive policy measures. Fiscal and external vulnerabilities remain elevated due to rising subsidies, high capital spending, and an increased interest burden. The Maldives has a high risk of external debt distress and a high overall risk of debt distress. Inflation has risen but is relatively contained due to price subsidies. Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside, including a possible sharp slowdown in key source markets for tourism, high commodity prices, and tighter global financial conditions. A resumption of tourist arrivals from China is an upside risk to growth. The ongoing economic recovery provides an opportunity to swiftly implement a comprehensive set of reforms to reduce fiscal, debt, and external vulnerabilities, and strengthen economic resilience. The report recommends that financial sector policies should remain vigilant to safeguard financial stability considering the large exposure of the banking sector to the sovereign and the expiration of pandemic-related lending support schemes.
Keywords:
parliament approval; MMA authorities; staff appraisal; market in the Maldives; SARTTAC mission; government policy; Government debt management; Capital spending; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Spending Challenge of Achieving the SDGs in South Asia: Lessons from India
Ms. Mercedes Garcia-Escribano
,
Ms. Tewodaj Mogues
,
Marian Moszoro
, and
Mauricio Soto
South Asia has experienced significant progress in improving human and physical capital over the past few decades. Within the region, India has become a global economic powerhouse with enormous development potential ahead. To foster human and economic development, India has shown a strong commitment to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) Agenda. This paper focuses on the medium-term development challenges that South Asia, and in particular India, faces to ensure substantial progress along the SDGs by 2030. We estimate the additional spending needed in critical areas of human capital (health and education) and physical capital (water and sanitation, electricity, and roads). We document progress on these five sectors for India relative to other South Asian countries and discuss implications for policy and reform.
Keywords:
Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs); Human Capital; Infrastructure; India; spending estimation; health outcome; spending challenge; physical capital; SDG sector; Sustainable Development Goals (SDG); Electricity; South Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
Climate Change in South Asia: Further Need for Mitigation and Adaptation
Ruchir Agarwal
,
Vybhavi Balasundharam
,
Patrick Blagrave
,
Mr. Eugenio M Cerutti
,
Ragnar Gudmundsson
, and
Racha Mousa
The South Asia region is both a large contributor to climate change and also one of the regions most vulnerable to climate change. This paper provides an overview of the region’s vulnerabilities, national committments to mitigate emissions, and national policies to adapt to a changing climate. The paper also discusses policy measures that may be needed to make further progress on both mitigation and adapatation. Our analysis suggests that while substantial progress is being made, there remains scope to adopt a more cohesive strategy to achieve the region’s goals—including by improving the monitoring and tracking of adaptation spending, and by laying the groundwork to equitably increase the effective price of carbon while protecting low-income and vulnerable households in the region.
Keywords:
South Asia region; mitigation policy; policy measure; climate change in South Asia; power generation; Climate change; Climate finance; Natural disasters; Greenhouse gas emissions; South Asia; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
A Diversification Strategy for South Asia
Weicheng Lian
,
Fei Liu
,
Katsiaryna Svirydzenka
, and
Biying Zhu
While South Asia has gone a long way in diversifying their economies, there is substantial scope to do more. Some countries – India, Nepal, and Sri Lanka – can build on their existing production capabilities; others – Bangladesh, Bhutan, and the Maldives – would need to undertake a more concerted push. We identify key policies from a large set of potential determinants that explain the variation in export diversification and complexity across 189 countries from 1962 to 2018. Our analysis suggests that South Asia needs to invest in infrastructure, education, and R&D, facilitate bank credit to productive companies, and open to trade in order to diversify and move up the value chains. Given the COVID-19 pandemic, investing in digital technologies as part of the infrastructure push and improving education are of even greater importance to facilitate the ability to work remotely and assist resource reallocation away from the less viable sectors.
Keywords:
summary statistic; outlook index; Economics complexity; South Asia's progress; diversification of export; Export diversification; Exports; Infrastructure; Income; South Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Maldives: Technical Assistance Report-Fiscal Transparency Evaluation
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Reflecting an ongoing commitment to enhancing fiscal transparency, Maldives is the first small island state, and the second country in Asia, to have undertaken a Fiscal Transparency Evaluation (FTE). The Government of the Maldives (GoM) recognizes the importance of transparency in fiscal management and in delivering on its ambitious policy agenda, while responding to current challenges within a tight fiscal environment. This report assesses fiscal transparency practices in Maldives against the first three pillars of the IMF’s Fiscal Transparency Code (FTC).
Keywords:
IMF team; FAD expert; staff team of the International Monetary Fund; Maldives pension administration office; housing development finance corporation; Budget planning and preparation; Fiscal risks; Financial statements; Global; South Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
Enhancing Resilience to Climate Change in the Maldives
Mr. Giovanni Melina
and
Marika Santoro
The increased likelihood of adverse climate-change-related shocks calls for building resilient infrastructure in the Maldives. Fulfilling these infrastructure needs requires a comprehensive analysis of investment plans, including with respect to their degree of climate resilience, their impact on future economic prospects, and their funding costs and sources. This paper analyzes these challenges, through calibrating a general equilibrium model. The main finding is that there is a significant dividend associated with building resilient infrastructure. Under worsened climate conditions, the cumulative output gain from investing in more resilient technologies increases up to a factor of two. However, given the Maldives’ limited fiscal space, particularly after COVID-19, the international community should also step up cooperation efforts. We also show that it is financially convenient for donors to help build resilience prior to the occurrence of a natural disasters rather than helping finance the reconstruction ex-post.
Keywords:
IMF working paper Asia-Pacific; climate condition; climate resilience; adaptation infrastructure; disaster shock; Infrastructure; Natural disasters; Public investment spending; Private investment; South Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
Designing Fiscal Redistribution: The Role of Universal and Targeted Transfers
Mr. David Coady
and
Nghia-Piotr Le
There is a growing debate on the relative merits of universal and targeted social assistance transfers in achieving income redistribution objectives. While the benefits of targeting are clear, i.e., a larger poverty impact for a given transfer budget or lower fiscal cost for a given poverty impact, in practice targeting also comes with various costs, including incentive, administrative, social and political costs. The appropriate balance between targeted and universal transfers will therefore depend on how countries decide to trade-off these costs and benefits as well as on the potential for redistribution through taxes. This paper discusses the trade-offs that arise in different country contexts and the potential for strengthening fiscal redistribution in advanced and developing countries, including through expanding transfer coverage and progressive tax financing.
Keywords:
WP; income; cost; earned income; taxation framework; consumption taxation; transfer program; income tax schedule; efficiency cost; poverty impact; redistribution objective; means testing; income share; public spending; income redistribution objective; progressive tax; poverty line; Personal income; Income tax systems; Fiscal redistribution; Income inequality; Middle East; North Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global; East Africa; transfers; taxes; targeted; universal; income transfer
Cover Departmental Papers
Is South Asia Ready for Take Off?: A Sustainable and Inclusive Growth Agenda
Ms. Manuela Goretti
,
Mr. Daisaku Kihara
,
Mr. Ranil M Salgado
, and
Ms. Anne Marie Gulde
Since the mid-1980s, durable reforms coupled with prudent macroeconomic management have brought steady progress to the South Asia region, making it one of the world’s fastest growing regions. Real GDP growth has steadily increased from an average of about 3 percent in the 1970s to 7 percent over the last decade. Although growth trajectories varied across countries, reforms supported strong per capita income growth in the region, lifting over 200 million people out of poverty in the last three decades. Today, South Asia accounts for one-fifth of the world’s population and, thanks to India’s increasing performance, contributes to over 15 percent of global growth. Looking ahead, the authors find that South Asia is poised to play an even bigger role in the global economy, in both relative and absolute terms. India has overtaken China as the fastest growing large economy and South Asia’s contribution to global growth is set to increase, while more mature economies decelerate. Greater economic diversification, with an expansion of the service sector, improvements in education, and a still sizable demographic dividend are among the key elements underpinning this performance. Based on demographic trends, more than 150 million people in the region are expected to enter the labor market by 2030. This young and large workforce can be South Asia’s strength, if supported by a successful high-quality and job-rich growth strategy. Amid a changing global economic landscape, the authors argue that South Asia will need to leverage on all sectors of the economy in a balanced way, supporting improvements in agricultural productivity and a sustainable expansion of manufacturing, while promoting higher-skill services, to achieve this goal.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; India; economy; IMF staff calculation; service sector; South Asia region; FDI liberalization; growth strategy; employment elasticity; liberalization path; pro-business reform; reform scenario; export-led growth; Labor force; Income; Productivity; South Asia; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Maldives: 2002 Article IV Consultation-Public Information Notice; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Maldives
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2002 Article IV Consultation with Maldives discusses that the performance of the Maldivian economy was strong through most of the past decade, despite handicaps arising from its small size and vulnerability to external developments. The devaluation and the weaker dollar have brought the effective real exchange rate closer to that of main competitors. Reserves have clawed back some of the losses in the aftermath of the devaluation. The 2002 Article IV discussions presented the opportunity to reassess progress toward restoring the soundness of macroeconomic and structural policies. In order to ensure a favorable medium-term performance for the Maldives, policies need to support the fixed exchange rate and adapt to ongoing structural changes—notably, the progressive liberalization of the financial sector, further private sector participation in activities still dominated by state-owned enterprises, and the likely tapering off of external assistance. The authorities have made some progress in responding to key policy challenges. Recent consultations have stressed the need for a stronger fiscal position and independent monetary management.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; authority; financing; deficit; central bank financing; staffs appraisal; percentage points of GDP; government activity; Maldivian authorities; capital revenue; automatic resort; Exports; Global; Asia and Pacific