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Middle East and Central Asia > Mauritania, Islamic Republic of

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Measuring and Mending Monetary Policy Effectiveness Under Capital Account Restrictions: Lessons from Mauritania
Mr. Robert Blotevogel
I propose a new approach to identifying exogenous monetary policy shocks in low-income countries with capital account restrictions. In the case of Mauritania, a domestic repatriation requirement is the key institutional characteristic that allows me to establish exogeneity. Unlike in advanced countries, I find no evidence for a statistically significant impact of exogenous monetary policy shocks on bank lending. Using a unique bank-level dataset on monthly balance sheets of six Mauritanian banks over the period 2006–11, I estimate structural vector autoregressions and two-stage least square panel models to demonstrate the ineffectiveness of monetary policy. Finally, I discuss how a reduction in banks’ loan concentration ratios and improvements in the liquidity management framework could make monetary stimuli more effective.
Keywords:
WP; bank lending; central bank; bank reserves; refinancing possibility; monetary policy effectiveness; exogenous monetary policy shocks; capital account restrictions; low-income countries; liquidity management; loan concentration; monetary policy shock; fish export; balance sheet equity; liquidity position; private-sector credit; transmission mechanism; banks' holding; loan portfolio; excess reserves; risk management capability; Credit; Bank credit; Agroindustries; Exports; Loans; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Trade Flows, Multilateral Resistance, and Firm Heterogeneity
Mr. Alberto Behar
and
Benjamin D. Nelson
We present a gravity model that accounts for multilateral resistance, firm heterogeneity and country-selection into trade, while accommodating asymmetries in trade flows. A new equation for the proportion of exporting firms takes a gravity form, such that the extensive margin is also affected by multilateral resistance. We develop Taylor approximated multilateral resistance terms with which to capture the comparative static effects of changes in trade costs. For isolated bilateral changes in trade frictions, multilateral resistance effects are small for most countries. However, if all countries reduce their trade frictions, the impact of multilateral resistance is so strong that bilateral trade falls in most cases, despite the larger trade elasticities implied by firm heterogeneity. As a consequence, the world-wide trade response, though positive, is much lower.
Keywords:
WP; trade cost; Gravity models; multilateral resistance; firm heterogeneity; trade elasticity; trade flow; World trade resistance; trade response; trade elasticities net; trade friction; Plurilateral trade; Trade balance; Exports; Multilateral trade; Imports; Global; Country-pair GDP share
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Islamic Republic of Mauritania: Fifth Review Under the three-Year Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Requests for Modification of Performance Criteria and Extension of the Arrangement—Staff Report and Press Release
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Mauritania successfully weathered several exogenous shocks during 2011–12. Political upheaval in neighboring countries has not had detrimental economic effects so far, but political uncertainty remains high. Resilient growth and a continued buildup of external and fiscal buffers characterize better-than-expected macroeconomic developments. Ambitious structural reforms are vital for generating broad-based inclusive growth, promoting employment, and reducing poverty. The authorities will continue to improve transparency and economic statistics. Policy actions laid the foundation for a sound macroeconomic performance, although important challenges and vulnerabilities remain.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; SDR; government; GDP; exchange rate; price; procurement code; foreign exchange; current account; monetary policy; private sector; Credit; Loans; Nonperforming loans; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Global Risks, Vulnerabilities, and Policy Challenges Facing Low-Income Countries
International Monetary Fund
The rapid recovery in many low-income countries (LICs) following the global crisis has been sustained in 2012. Softening commodity prices have led to moderating inflation pressures in most LICs. However, progress in rebuilding policy buffers has halted over the past two years, despite continued strong growth in LICs.
Keywords:
PP; Resource-Rich LICs; price; price shock; growth recovery; shock scenario; near-term risk; IMF staff estimate; dollarized LICs; oil price shock; commodity-exporting LICs; near-term vulnerability; food price scenario; LICs in Asia; 'near term risk; food price; Commodity price shocks; Fiscal space; Inflation; Food prices; Commodity prices; Global; Middle East; Asia and Pacific; Eastern Europe; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Mauritanie: Consultations de 2012 au titre de l’article IV et quatrième revue de l’accord triennal au titre de la facilité élargie de crédit, et demandes de dérogations pour la non-observation et la modification de critères de réalisation—Rapport des services du FMI, note d’information au public et communiqué de presse sur les délibérations du Conseil d’administration, et déclaration de l’Administrateur pour la Mauritanie
International Monetary Fund
Depuis plusieurs années, le FMI publie un nombre croissant de rapports et autres documents couvrant l'évolution et les tendances économiques et financières dans les pays membres. Chaque rapport, rédigé par une équipe des services du FMI à la suite d'entretiens avec des représentants des autorités, est publié avec l'accord du pays concerné.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; debt; government; SDR; real GDP
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Mauritanie: Questions choisies
International Monetary Fund
Depuis plusieurs années, le FMI publie un nombre croissant de rapports et autres documents couvrant l'évolution et les tendances économiques et financières dans les pays membres. Chaque rapport, rédigé par une équipe des services du FMI à la suite d'entretiens avec des représentants des autorités, est publié avec l'accord du pays concerné.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Mauritania; bank
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Islamic Republic of Mauritania: Selected Issues Paper
International Monetary Fund
Despite a relatively high GDP growth rate over the past decade (2000–10), economic growth in Mauritania has not been able to make a significant dent in poverty. Rapid and sustained poverty reduction requires inclusive growth that allows people to contribute to and benefit from expanding economic activity. Mauritania needs to make greater progress toward inclusive growth by enhancing the distributional impact of public spending and by improving the quality of pro-poor spending. The Executive Board recommends effective monetary policies to meet the challenges.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Mauritania; bank; poverty incidence; bank lending channel; poverty perception; public spending; subsidy reform; funding constraint; Inclusive growth; Credit; Bank credit; Exports; Europe; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; Middle East; North Africa; East Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Islamic Republic of Mauritania: 2012 Article IV Consultation and Fourth Review Under the Three-Year Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, and Requests for Waivers of Nonobservance and Modification of Performance Criteria-Staff Report and Supplement; Public Information Notice and Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Islamic Republic of Mauritania
International Monetary Fund
The 2012 Article IV Consultation and Fourth Review under the three-year Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement discusses the macroeconomic conditions of the Islamic Republic of Mauritania. Mauritania’s economy has performed well in 2011, despite significant challenges. Economic activity is likely to pick up and inflation to remain low. However, Mauritania faces important short- and medium-term policy challenges, notably in the social area, where progress in reducing poverty has been slow and unemployment is still high. The performance under the ECF-supported program has remained strong.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; debt; government; SDR; real GDP; Extended Credit Facility arrangement; commodity export; nonmetals commodity prices fall; IMF's board; anchor inflation expectation; commodity price boom; Fiscal stance; Mining sector; Monetary statistics; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Public Investment, Growth, and Debt Sustainability: Putting together the Pieces
Mr. Andrew Berg
,
Mr. Rafael A Portillo
,
Mr. Edward F Buffie
,
Ms. Catherine A Pattillo
, and
Luis-Felipe Zanna
We develop a model to study the macroeconomic effects of public investment surges in low-income countries, making explicit: (i) the investment-growth linkages; (ii) public external and domestic debt accumulation; (iii) the fiscal policy reactions necessary to ensure debt-sustainability; and (iv) the macroeconomic adjustment required to ensure internal and external balance. Well-executed high-yielding public investment programs can substantially raise output and consumption and be self-financing in the long run. However, even if the long run looks good, transition problems can be formidable when concessional financing does not cover the full cost of the investment program. Covering the resulting gap with tax increases or spending cuts requires sharp macroeconomic adjustments, crowding out private investment and consumption and delaying the growth benefits of public investment. Covering the gap with domestic borrowing market is not helpful either: higher domestic rates increase the financing challenge and private investment and consumption are still crowded out. Supplementing with external commercial borrowing, on the other hand, can smooth these difficult adjustments, reconciling the scaling up with feasibility constraints on increases in tax rates. But the strategy may be also risky. With poor execution, sluggish fiscal policy reactions, or persistent negative exogenous shocks, this strategy can easily lead to unsustainable public debt dynamics. Front-loaded investment programs and weak structural conditions (such as low returns to public capital and poor execution of investments) make the fiscal adjustment more challenging and the risks greater.
Keywords:
WP; risk premium; Public Investment; Growth; Debt Sustainability; Fiscal Policy; Infrastructure; Aid; crowding in; real GDP; investment surge; rate of return; private sector; crowding out; capital stock; scaling-up scenario; growth linkage; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Public investment spending; Africa; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Country Stress Events: Does Governance Matter?
Ms. Anna Kochanova
and
Carlos Caceres
This paper analyzes the linkages between governance quality and country stress events. It focuses on two types of events: fiscal and political stress events, for which two innovative stress indicators are introduced. The results suggest that weaker governance quality is associated with a higher incidence of both fiscal and political stress events. In particular, internal accountability, which measures the responsiveness of governments to improving the quality of the bureaucracy, public service provision, and respect for the institutional framework in place, is positively associated with fiscal stress events. However, external accountability, which captures government accountability before the public in general, through elections and the democratic process, seems to be more important for political stress events. These results hold when using balanced country samples where region, oil-exporter status, income level, and time are taken into account.
Keywords:
WP; governance measure; stress event; governance quality; governance indicator; governance effectiveness