Africa > Madagascar, Republic of

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International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper and Statistical Appendix analyzes the relationship among prices, income, and money in Madagascar over the period 1982–2004. It finds that a stable long-run relationship for the price level exists, but that the adjustment toward this long-term equilibrium is quite slow. The paper presents an assessment of the real effective exchange rate. It also presents some qualitative competitiveness indicators and examines the performance of exports in Madagascar at an aggregate and product level.
International Monetary Fund
This paper examines Madagascar’s Fifth Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility, and Requests for Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria. Madagascar’s performance under the program was broadly satisfactory, taking into account the impact of the exogenous shocks and corrective actions taken by the authorities. Efforts to bring tax revenue and net foreign assets—the two indicative targets missed at end-June—back on track over the summer were successful. Progress was also made in structural reform, although with some delays.
International Monetary Fund
Madagascar showed satisfactory performance under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) program. Executive Directors agreed that the crisis has undermined the timely achievement of the program, requiring the government to redouble its efforts. They welcomed the 2003 budget and stressed the need for strengthening fiscal and monetary policies and accelerating structural reforms. They urged the need to address the problems of inefficiency and corruption in the public administration. They emphasized the need to decisively implement the strategy, and successfully complete the third review under the PRGF arrangement.
Mr. John Cady
Employing cointegration techniques, the long-run determinants of Madagascar's real exchange rate are examined from a stock-flow perspective. The long-run behavior of the real effective exchange rate is explained by the net foreign asset position and factors affecting trade flows. An index of the long-run equilibrium real exchange rate is developed to assess the degree of misalignment. The general conclusions are that the Malagasy franc has experienced significant misalignment in the past, but that the recent appreciation of the real effective exchange rate is consistent with changes in the fundamentals, particularly anticipated improvements in the net foreign assets position stemming from Madagascar's eligibility for assistance under the enhanced HIPC Initiative.
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper analyzes recent economic developments and policies in Madagascar. Real GDP growth in 2001 was 6 percent, continuing the trend of sustained increase in per capita real GDP that began during the period 1997–2000. The secondary and tertiary sectors were the main sources of growth. The value added of the secondary sector, which accounts for only 13.3 percent of output, increased by 7.6 percent in 2001, following an annual average increase of 5 percent in 1997–2000.
International Monetary Fund
This paper analyzes the basic data, social and demographic indicators of Madagascar. The study outlines the institutional arrangements for the determination and management of the Malagasy franc, and reviews the foreign exchange market developments. The paper assesses the country's international price competitiveness and developments in the export processing zone. This report also provides a Statistical Appendix for the country.
Mr. Emilio Sacerdoti
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Mr. Yuan Xiao
The paper analyzes the dynamics of inflation in Madagascar in the period 1971-2000, applying cointegration analysis and error correction modeling. The empirical results, based on quarterly data, confirm that there exists a stable money demand relationship, as well as a purchasing power relationship in the long run. The former enters the short-run dynamics of inflation and money growth, while the latter affects the short-run dynamics of the exchange rate only. We also find that an appreciation has a direct negative impact on inflation and that inflation inertia is important. In addition, we conduct FIML estimation of the system and trace the impulse responses to various shocks.
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper and Statistical Annex analyzes the inflation and monetary policy in Madagascar during the 1990s. The paper highlights that in 1995, Madagascar’s inflation performance was somewhat disappointing, although 12-month price increases slowed from 60 percent at end-1994 to 38 percent at end-1995. The paper provides selected stylized facts concerning money and prices. A simple model of price formation in a small open economy is presented. The paper also addresses issues in estimating long-term relationships, discusses the results, and presents a forecast for inflation in 1996.
International Monetary Fund
This paper describes the economic developments in Madagascar during the 1990s. In early 1994, the authorities prepared a medium-term policy statement with an outward orientation. Accordingly, a sweeping reform of the exchange and trade system was implemented in May 1994, including the floating of the Malagasy franc. However, financial policy was not sufficiently supportive: ad hoc tax exemptions were granted, particularly to foodstuffs and petroleum products, and other taxes were not fully collected. Thus, the fiscal deficit deteriorated, leading to a sharp acceleration in money creation and inflation, which rose to 61 percent by end-1994.
Mr. Arend Kouwenaar
The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and national and international economic developments.