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Africa > Madagascar, Republic of

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Cover Selected Issues Papers
Social Spending and Outcomes in Madagascar: Republic of Madagascar
Samah Mazraani
The paper examines Madagascar's education, health, and social assistance spending and outcomes. Government spending on education is relatively low compared to peers, and the quality of education has deteriorated. The paper recommends allocating more resources to the sector, ensuring transparent and merit-based teacher recruitment mechanisms, and strengthening teacher training and incentives. Health spending is also low, and the health system faces challenges in malnutrition, immunization, and service delivery. Additional domestic resources and large-scale structural reforms are needed. Social safety net programs have limited coverage and low spending, and expanding them should be a top priority to reduce poverty and support vulnerable populations.
Keywords:
Social spending; Education; Health; Social Protection; Poverty; Madagascar; health system faces challenge; government health spending; commitment process; government education spending; recruitment mechanism; teacher training; Social assistance spending; Education spending; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Building Statistical Capacity in Fragile and Conflict-Affected States
Yasmin Alem
and
Jacinta Bernadette Shirakawa
Based on internal data, this paper finds that the capacity development program of the IMF’s Statistics Department has prioritized technical assistance and training to fragile and conflict-affected states. These interventions have yielded only slightly weaker results in fragile states than in other states. However, capacity development is constantly needed to make up for the dissipation of progress resulting from insufficient resources that fragile and conflict-affected states allocate to the statistical function, inadequate inter-agency coordination, and the pervasive impact of shocks exogenous to the statistical system. Greater coordination with other capacity development providers and within the IMF can help partially overcome low absorptive capacity in fragile states. Statistical capacity development is more effective when it is tailored to countries’ level of fragility.
Keywords:
Capacity Development; Statistics; Data; Fragile States; Sta CD mission; government finance statistics manual; Sta CD delivery; Sta CD spending; World Bank methodology assessment; Income; Government finance statistics; External sector statistics; Information and data management; Middle East and Central Asia; Pacific Islands; Middle East; West Africa; Africa; Central Africa; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Madagascar: Request for a 40-Month Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Madagascar
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The COVID-19 pandemic has hit Madagascar hard, reversing recent progress in per capita income and poverty reduction. GDP is estimated to have contracted by 4.2 percent in 2020. Two RCF disbursements approved on April 3 and July 30 (totaling 2.4 percent of GDP) helped close short-term financing gaps, supported mitigation measures, and contributed to catalyzing donor budget support. The authorities are seeking renewed Fund assistance to help the country face protracted balance of payment needs aggravated by the impact of the pandemic and support the authorities’ reform agenda summarized in the Plan Emergence Madagascar (PEM).
Keywords:
ECF arrangement; financing gap; reform strategy; financing needs; frontloaded disbursement; COVID-19; Credit; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Fund Concessional Financial Support For Low-Income Countries—Responding To The Pandemic
International Monetary Fund
This paper proposes a package of policy reforms and a funding strategy to ensure that the Fund has the capacity to respond flexibly to LICs’ needs during the pandemic and recovery. The key policy reforms proposed include: • raising the normal annual/cumulative limits on access to PRGT resources to 145/435 percent of quota, the same thresholds for normal access in the GRA; • eliminating the hard limits on exceptional access (EA) to PRGT resources for the poorest LICs, enabling them to obtain all financing on concessional terms if the EA criteria are met; • changes to the framework for blending concessional and non-concessional resources to make it more robust and less complex; • stronger safeguards to address concerns regarding debt sustainability and capacity to repay the Fund; and • retaining zero interest rates on PRGT loans, consistent with the established rules for setting these interest rates.
Keywords:
PRGT lending; PRGT subsidization; fund financing commitment; PRGT account; PRGT resource; WB financing; COVID-19; Income; Loans; Credit; Concessional external borrowing; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Will the Economic Impact of COVID-19 Persist? Prognosis from 21st Century Pandemics
Johannes Emmerling
,
Davide Furceri
,
Francisco Líbano Monteiro
,
Mr. Prakash Loungani
,
Mr. Jonathan David Ostry
,
Pietro Pizzuto
, and
Massimo Tavoni
COVID-19 has had a disruptive economic impact in 2020, but how long its impact will persist remains unclear. We offer a prognosis based on an analysis of the effects of five previous major epidemics in this century. We find that these pandemics led to significant and persistent reductions in disposable income, along with increases in unemployment, income inequality and public debt-to-GDP ratios. Energy use and CO2 emissions dropped, but mostly because of the persistent decline in the level of economic activity rather than structural changes in the energy sector. Applying our empirical estimates to project the impact of COVID-19, we foresee significant scarring in economic performance and income distribution through 2025, which be associated with an increase in poverty of about 75 million people. Policy responses more effective than those in the past would be required to forestall these outcomes.
Keywords:
impulse response; effects of pandemic; list of pandemic; pandemic event; baseline estimate; impact of COVID-19; COVID-19; Greenhouse gas emissions; Income inequality; Income distribution; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Madagascar: Request for a 40-Month Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Madagascar
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The COVID-19 pandemic has hit Madagascar hard, reversing recent progress in per capita income and poverty reduction. GDP is estimated to have contracted by 4.2 percent in 2020. Two RCF disbursements approved on April 3 and July 30 (totaling 2.4 percent of GDP) helped close short-term financing gaps, supported mitigation measures, and contributed to catalyzing donor budget support. The authorities are seeking renewed Fund assistance to help the country face protracted balance of payment needs aggravated by the impact of the pandemic and support the authorities’ reform agenda summarized in the Plan Emergence Madagascar (PEM).
Keywords:
ECF arrangement; financing gap; reform strategy; financing needs; frontloaded disbursement; COVID-19; Credit; Global
Cover Policy Papers
FY2020 - Output Cost Estimates and Budget Outturn
International Monetary Fund. Office of Budget and Planning
The paper presents highlights from the FY 2020 budget, followed by a discussion of outputs based on the Fund Thematic Categories and of inputs.
Keywords:
PP; expenditures FY; dollar spending; spending execution; unspent FY 18; digitalization strategy; management fee; Medium-term budget; Budget planning and preparation; Capital spending; Financial Sector Assessment Program; COVID-19; Middle East and Central Asia; Global; Asia and Pacific; Western Hemisphere
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Madagascar: Request for Disbursement under the Rapid Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Madagascar
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
A further deterioration of the global environment and a deepening of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic have worsened the macroeconomic outlook significantly, with growth now projected to be negative in 2020. As a result, urgent balance of payments needs arising from the pandemic are now estimated at 4.2 percent of GDP (compared to 1.8 percent), and the authorities have requested an additional disbursement under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) of 50 percent of quota (SDR 122.2 million) under the “exogenous shock” window of the RCF. This follows Board approval on April 3, 2020 of the authorities’ request for 50 percent of quota, which took place before the annual access of the RCF was doubled to 100 percent of quota on April 6, 2020. This additional request, if approved, will bring total disbursements under the RCF to 100 percent of quota in 2020. The authorities have also requested temporary debt servicing relief under the G-20 Debt Service Suspension Initiative, supported by the G-20 and Paris Club.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; financing; RCF resource; fund support; financing needs; financing gap; RCF request; IMF Policy paper No. 20/018; Credit; Budget planning and preparation; Global; Africa; COVID-19
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Madagascar: Request for Disbursement under the Rapid Credit Facility-Press Release and Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Madagascar
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses Republic of Madagascar’s Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF). The coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic is having a severe impact on Madagascar’s economy. Due to dramatic declines in tourism and disruptions to manufacturing and extractive industry exports, as well as transport, communications, and services, real gross domestic product growth is likely to decline sharply. The fiscal situation is also deteriorating rapidly with additional health and social spending outlays and a significant shortfall in tax revenue. Fund support under the RCF is expected to help the authorities meet the urgent fiscal and external financing needs to mitigate the impact of the pandemic. The authorities are taking immediate measures to address the human and economic impact of the pandemic, while preserving macroeconomic stability. These include increases in health spending, help to the most vulnerable, support to the private sector, and actions to preserve the stability of the financial sector and maintain the flexible exchange rate regime.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; IMF support; financing; RCF disbursement; SDR; disbursement; executive board discussion; SDR exchange rate; disbursement under the Rapid Credit Facility; Credit; COVID-19; Imports; Fiscal stance; Global; Budget planning and preparation
Cover IMF Working Papers
Dominance Testing of Social Sector Expenditures and Taxes in Africa
Mr. David E. Sahn
and
Mr. Stephen D. Younger
This paper examines the progressivity of social sector expenditures and taxes in eight sub-Saharan African countries. It uses dominance tests to determine whether health and education expenditures redistribute resources to the poor. The paper finds that social services are poorly targeted. Among the services examined, primary education tends to be most progressive, and university education is least progressive. The paper finds that many taxes are progressive as well as efficient, including some broad-based taxes such as the VAT and wage taxation. Taxes on kerosene and exports appear to be the only examples of regressive taxes.
Keywords:
WP; demand; tax; function estimate; Lorenz curve; Taxes; health; education; income distribution; expenditure data; government of Guinea; test result; primary education; government of Côte d'Ivoire; government of Madagascar; government Uganda; Gini coefficient; government of Tanzania; budget data; dominance result; Health care; Income; Africa