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Africa > Madagascar, Republic of

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Building Statistical Capacity in Fragile and Conflict-Affected States
Yasmin Alem
and
Jacinta Bernadette Shirakawa
Based on internal data, this paper finds that the capacity development program of the IMF’s Statistics Department has prioritized technical assistance and training to fragile and conflict-affected states. These interventions have yielded only slightly weaker results in fragile states than in other states. However, capacity development is constantly needed to make up for the dissipation of progress resulting from insufficient resources that fragile and conflict-affected states allocate to the statistical function, inadequate inter-agency coordination, and the pervasive impact of shocks exogenous to the statistical system. Greater coordination with other capacity development providers and within the IMF can help partially overcome low absorptive capacity in fragile states. Statistical capacity development is more effective when it is tailored to countries’ level of fragility.
Keywords:
Capacity Development; Statistics; Data; Fragile States; Sta CD mission; government finance statistics manual; Sta CD delivery; Sta CD spending; World Bank methodology assessment; Income; Government finance statistics; External sector statistics; Information and data management; Middle East and Central Asia; Pacific Islands; Middle East; West Africa; Africa; Central Africa; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Madagascar: Request for a 40-Month Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Madagascar
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The COVID-19 pandemic has hit Madagascar hard, reversing recent progress in per capita income and poverty reduction. GDP is estimated to have contracted by 4.2 percent in 2020. Two RCF disbursements approved on April 3 and July 30 (totaling 2.4 percent of GDP) helped close short-term financing gaps, supported mitigation measures, and contributed to catalyzing donor budget support. The authorities are seeking renewed Fund assistance to help the country face protracted balance of payment needs aggravated by the impact of the pandemic and support the authorities’ reform agenda summarized in the Plan Emergence Madagascar (PEM).
Keywords:
ECF arrangement; financing gap; reform strategy; financing needs; frontloaded disbursement; COVID-19; Credit; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
How do Climate Shocks Affect the Impact of FDI, ODA and Remittances on Economic Growth?
Alassane Drabo
The three main financial inflows to developing countries have largely increased during the last two decades, despite the large debate in the literature regarding their effects on economic growth which is not yet clear-cut. An emerging literature investigates the dependence of their effects on some country characteristics such as human and physical capital constraint, macroeconomic policy and institutional capacity. This paper extends the literature by arguing that climate shocks may undermine the effect of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), official development assistance (ODA) and migrants’ remittances on economic expansion. Based on neoclassical growth framework, the theoretical model indicates that FDI, ODA, and remittances improve economic growth, and the size of the effect increases with good absorptive capacity. However, climate shocks reduce this positive effect of financial flows in developing countries. Using a sample of low and middle-income countries from 1995 to 2018, the empirical investigation confirms the theoretical conclusions. Developing countries should build strong resilience to climate change. Actions are also needed at global level to reduce greenhouse gases emissions, and build strong structural resilience to climate shocks especially in developing countries.
Keywords:
inflows-economic growth nexus; effect of ODA; income group; role of Climate; effect of foreign direct investment; Climate change; Absorptive capacity; Foreign direct investment; Human capital; Middle East; East Asia; Asia and Pacific; North Africa; South Asia; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Fund Concessional Financial Support For Low-Income Countries—Responding To The Pandemic
International Monetary Fund
This paper proposes a package of policy reforms and a funding strategy to ensure that the Fund has the capacity to respond flexibly to LICs’ needs during the pandemic and recovery. The key policy reforms proposed include: • raising the normal annual/cumulative limits on access to PRGT resources to 145/435 percent of quota, the same thresholds for normal access in the GRA; • eliminating the hard limits on exceptional access (EA) to PRGT resources for the poorest LICs, enabling them to obtain all financing on concessional terms if the EA criteria are met; • changes to the framework for blending concessional and non-concessional resources to make it more robust and less complex; • stronger safeguards to address concerns regarding debt sustainability and capacity to repay the Fund; and • retaining zero interest rates on PRGT loans, consistent with the established rules for setting these interest rates.
Keywords:
PRGT lending; PRGT subsidization; fund financing commitment; PRGT account; PRGT resource; WB financing; COVID-19; Income; Loans; Credit; Concessional external borrowing; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Madagascar: Request for a 40-Month Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Madagascar
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The COVID-19 pandemic has hit Madagascar hard, reversing recent progress in per capita income and poverty reduction. GDP is estimated to have contracted by 4.2 percent in 2020. Two RCF disbursements approved on April 3 and July 30 (totaling 2.4 percent of GDP) helped close short-term financing gaps, supported mitigation measures, and contributed to catalyzing donor budget support. The authorities are seeking renewed Fund assistance to help the country face protracted balance of payment needs aggravated by the impact of the pandemic and support the authorities’ reform agenda summarized in the Plan Emergence Madagascar (PEM).
Keywords:
ECF arrangement; financing gap; reform strategy; financing needs; frontloaded disbursement; COVID-19; Credit; Global
Cover Policy Papers
FY2020 - Output Cost Estimates and Budget Outturn
International Monetary Fund. Office of Budget and Planning
The paper presents highlights from the FY 2020 budget, followed by a discussion of outputs based on the Fund Thematic Categories and of inputs.
Keywords:
PP; expenditures FY; dollar spending; spending execution; unspent FY 18; digitalization strategy; management fee; Medium-term budget; Budget planning and preparation; Capital spending; Financial Sector Assessment Program; COVID-19; Middle East and Central Asia; Global; Asia and Pacific; Western Hemisphere
Cover Departmental Papers
Stress Testing in Sub-Saharan Africa: Practices, Communications, and Capacity Development
Mindaugas Leika
,
Hector Perez-Saiz
,
Ms. Olga Ilinichna Stankova
, and
Torsten Wezel
The paper finds that supervisory stress tests are conducted in more than half of sub-Saharan African countries, particularly in western and southern Africa, and that the number of individual stress tests has grown exponentially since the early 2010s. By contrast, few central banks publish assessments of macro-financial linkages; the focus leans more toward discussing trends and weaknesses within the financial sector than on outside risks that may negatively affect its performance.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; risk; financial risk; bank; market; process; liquidity risk; market risk; interest rate; macro-financial risk assessment; risk analysis; Stress testing; Financial sector stability; Communications in revenue administration; Credit risk; Commercial banks; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global; stress test result; risk weight; IMF TA; banking sector risk; bank supervisor; concentration risk; banking risk; macro-financial risk analysis; asset concentration risk; risk driver
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Madagascar: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyses tax revenue mobilization potential in Madagascar and lessons learned from successful episodes in sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. The analysis shows that there is a significant tax potential including through a possible broadening of the tax base, notably for consumption taxation; and underscores the importance of a comprehensive revenue strategy, including by combining reforms in tax policy and in tax and customs administrations. Significant progress has been made in terms of organization, simplification of procedures, management, and dialogue with the taxpayers. Communication between the two tax administrations could be improved. The tax administrations should notify each other if a case of fraud. Also, the domestic tax administration should have access to customs import/export data: many importers are active and make customs declarations without being identified by the domestic tax administration. Given the weaknesses in the provision of public services, social dialogue and consultation are important to explain the rationality of the tax system and the use of the tax revenue by the State.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; investment; country; public investment; theorical tax potential; audit performance; tax frontier; PPP investment portfolio; investment-growth linkage; Public investment spending; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Credit; Central bank policy rate; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Madagascar: Fifth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Madagascar
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Despite some electoral cycle-related uncertainties—the preparation and holding of the Presidential election in December 2018 and Parliamentary elections in May 2019—economic developments remained favorable in 2018 and the first months of 2019. Macroeconomic slippages were limited, with spending strictly contained within budget limits. The stable functioning of public institutions allowed for continued implementation of the economic reform program.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; spending; agenda; reform agenda; priority investment spending
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Madagascar: Fifth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Madagascar
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses Republic of Madagascar’s Fifth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement. Madagascar’s performance under its economic program supported by the ECF arrangement has remained generally strong. Discussions focused on the recently adopted 2019 revised budget law, which reflects the priorities of the new government and accommodates additional investment spending without undermining the main program objectives, as well as on the two main challenges relating to fuel pricing and the losses of the public utility JIRAMA. Other issues discussed included the strengthening of social safety nets, reforms in the financial sector, and progress on governance. Growth has been solid, inflation has been moderate, and the external position has remained robust. Going forward, the authorities’ continued commitment to strong policies and an ambitious structural reform agenda will be key to mitigating internal and external risks, strengthening macroeconomic stability, and achieving higher, sustainable, and inclusive growth.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; spending; agenda; reform agenda; priority investment spending; executive board discussion; disbursement of SDR; priority spending; Debt sustainability analysis; Public and publicly-guaranteed external debt; Global; Southern Africa