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Africa > Madagascar, Republic of

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Madagascar: Fourth Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility and Request for Waiver of Performance Criteria, Modification of Performance Criteria, and Augmentation of Access-Staff Report; Staff Supplement and Statement; Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Madagascar
International Monetary Fund
This paper discusses key findings of the Fourth Review Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) for Madagascar. Program performance has been generally good. The authorities have continued to implement sound fiscal and monetary policies that have resulted in good macroeconomic outcomes. They met all of the quantitative performance criteria (PCs) for end-January 2008, but missed two structural PCs. The international reserves cover is expected to deteriorate markedly, prompting the authorities to ask for an augmentation of 15 percent of quota, a request that IMF staff supports.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; growth facility; staff appraisal; authority; Three-Year arrangement; directorate General; IMF staff representative; International reserves; Inflation; Global; Southern Africa; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Madagascar: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper on the Republic of Madagascar reports on the several key themes associated with longer-term development issues in Madagascar. As one of the poorest countries in sub-Saharan Africa, Madagascar suffers from low levels of social indicators across all fronts including education, health, water and sanitation, and infrastructure. To make progress toward the Millennium Development Goals, the country will need to scale up substantially both public and private investment while taking actions to increase absorptive and institutional capacity and implementing supportive policies in each of the priority sectors.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Madagascar; trade; tariff; core inflation measure; Madagascar imports; core rate; inflation trend; SADC imports; Inflation; Imports; Tariffs; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Money Demand and Inflation in Madagascar
Koffie Ben Nassar
This paper uses a two-sector model to estimate the relationship between prices, money, and the exchange rate in Madagascar during the period 1982-2004. The estimated model, using quarterly data, finds a stable long-run relationship among monetary aggregates, domestic prices, real income, and foreign interest rates. In addition, the error-correction model shows that changes in the monetary aggregates, the exchange rate, and foreign interest rates exert a significant impact on inflation. The results also suggest that a disequilibrium in the money market has a lasting impact on inflation. The paper concludes with policy recommendations.
Keywords:
WP; real GDP
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Madagascar: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper and Statistical Appendix analyzes the relationship among prices, income, and money in Madagascar over the period 1982–2004. It finds that a stable long-run relationship for the price level exists, but that the adjustment toward this long-term equilibrium is quite slow. The paper presents an assessment of the real effective exchange rate. It also presents some qualitative competitiveness indicators and examines the performance of exports in Madagascar at an aggregate and product level.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; exchange rate; inflation expectation; chapter III; exchange rate regime; export base; inflation inertia; competitiveness indicator; Real effective exchange rates; Exchange rate arrangements; Exports; Terms of trade; Inflation; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Inflation Dynamics in Madagascar, 1971-2000
Mr. Emilio Sacerdoti
and
Mr. Yuan Xiao
The paper analyzes the dynamics of inflation in Madagascar in the period 1971-2000, applying cointegration analysis and error correction modeling. The empirical results, based on quarterly data, confirm that there exists a stable money demand relationship, as well as a purchasing power relationship in the long run. The former enters the short-run dynamics of inflation and money growth, while the latter affects the short-run dynamics of the exchange rate only. We also find that an appreciation has a direct negative impact on inflation and that inflation inertia is important. In addition, we conduct FIML estimation of the system and trace the impulse responses to various shocks.
Keywords:
WP; nominal exchange rate; rate of return; Madagascar; inflation; money demand; exchange rate; cointegration; error correction model; money growth; inflation inertia; inflation equation; price equation; error correction term; growth equation; Exchange rates; Exchange rate adjustments; Demand for money; Monetary base; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Madagascar: Selected Issues and Statistical Annex
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper and Statistical Annex analyzes the inflation and monetary policy in Madagascar during the 1990s. The paper highlights that in 1995, Madagascar’s inflation performance was somewhat disappointing, although 12-month price increases slowed from 60 percent at end-1994 to 38 percent at end-1995. The paper provides selected stylized facts concerning money and prices. A simple model of price formation in a small open economy is presented. The paper also addresses issues in estimating long-term relationships, discusses the results, and presents a forecast for inflation in 1996.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; broad money; exchange rate; central bank; broad money money supply; repurchase facility rate; error-correction term; penalty rate; opportunity cost; exchange rate fluctuation; rate of inflation; Monetary base; Inflation; Commercial banks; Real exchange rates; Agroindustries