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Africa > Madagascar, Republic of

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
République de Madagascar : consultations de 2014 au titre de l’article IV –– rapport des services du FMI; communiqué de presse et déclaration de l’administrateur pour la République de Madagascar
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
PRINCIPAUX THÈMES Contexte: Madagascar est l’un des pays les plus pauvres du monde. Une faible croissance économique a concouru à la persistance et à la progression de la pauvreté et à la dégradation des indicateurs sociaux. Dans un environnement fragile, l’incertitude liée à l’instabilité politique, à la faiblesse des institutions et à la médiocrité de la gouvernance a érodé les fondements d’une croissance économique vigoureuse, la recherche de rentes à court terme ayant pris le pas sur l’édification à plus long terme de la nation. Perspectives et risques: les autorités sont à la croisée des chemins. Un programme économique à moyen terme, aux priorités clairement définies et appliqué de manière concertée, stimulerait la croissance et résorberait la pauvreté. Cette démarche requerrait des ressources pour procéder aux investissements indispensables dans l’infrastructure et relever les dépenses sociales consacrées à l’éducation et à la santé. Des risques d’évolution négative existent toutefois, dans la mesure où une mise en œuvre lente des réformes maintiendrait le pays dans une situation de stagnation économique et de pauvreté persistante. Politique budgétaire: il faut accroître l’espace budgétaire pour relever le niveau et l’efficience des dépenses en faveur des pauvres et de la croissance tout en préservant la viabilité de la dette. Cela supposera l’élargissement de l’assiette fiscale, dans le cadre d’une stratégie globale de mobilisation des recettes, l’amélioration de la composition et de la qualité des dépenses budgétaires ainsi que la consolidation de la gestion des finances publiques. Politiques monétaire et de change: pour favoriser une politique monétaire volontariste et préserver la stabilité macroéconomique, il conviendra de renforcer l’indépendance de la banque centrale, de consolider ses dispositifs de contrôle et de la recapitaliser. Le régime flottant demeure approprié, mais il importera de s’assurer que le marché des devises est liquide et reflète les conditions du marché. Réformes structurelles: une amélioration du climat économique s’impose, notamment par le renforcement de la gouvernance et des politiques de développement social qui enverraient un message clair, à la société comme aux partenaires de développement, confirmant la détermination des autorités à conduire des réformes. Pour mobiliser le soutien du public à la poursuite des réformes, il serait judicieux de dresser dès les phases initiales un bilan des «petites victoires/gains rapides».
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; financing; government; government transfer; policy
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Madagascar: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
KEY ISSUES Context: Madagascar is one of the poorest countries in the world. Weak economic growth has contributed to persistent and increasing poverty with deteriorating social indicators. In a fragile environment, the uncertainty linked to political instability, weak institutions, and weak governance has eroded the foundation for solid economic growth, with short-term rent-seeking having taken precedence over longer-term nation building. Outlook and Risks: The authorities are at a crossroads. A well-prioritized medium-term economic program that is implemented concertedly would increase growth and reduce poverty. This will require resources in order to undertake essential investment in infrastructure, as well as to increase social spending on education and health. However, there are downside risks, whereby a slow pace of reform implementation would keep Madagascar on a path of economic stagnation and persistent poverty. Fiscal Policy: There is a need to increase fiscal space in order to raise the level and efficiency of pro-poor/pro-growth spending while preserving debt sustainability. This will involve a broadening of the tax base, supported by a comprehensive revenue mobilization strategy, improving the composition and quality of budgetary spending, and reinforcing public financial management. Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies: To facilitate an active monetary policy and safeguard macroeconomic stability, it will be important to increase central bank independence, strengthen its oversight mechanisms, and recapitalize the central bank. A floating regime remains appropriate, but it will be important to ensure that the foreign exchange market is liquid and reflects market conditions. Structural Reforms: There is a need to strengthen the economic climate, including through improved governance and social development policies that would send a clear signal, both within society and to development partners, confirming the government’s commitment to reform. To help build public support for continued reforms, it would be advisable to build an early track record of “small victories/quick wins”.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; financing; government; government transfer; policy; private sector growth; pressing infrastructure needs; budget financing; balance of payments; government institution; addressing Madagascar's challenge; transition regime; Credit; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global; Middle East; Europe; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
République de Madagascar: Quatrième revue de l'accord triennal au titre de la facilité pour la réduction de la pauvreté et pour la croissance, demande de dérogation à des critères de réalisation, demande de modification de critères de réalisation, et demande d'augmentation de l'accès : rapport des services du FMI ; suppléments et déclaration des services du FMI ; communiqué de presse sur les délibérations du conseil d'administration ; et déclaration de l'administrateur pour la République de Madagascar
International Monetary Fund
Depuis plusieurs années, le FMI publie un nombre croissant de rapports et autres documents couvrant l'évolution et les tendances économiques et financières dans les pays membres. Chaque rapport, rédigé par une équipe des services du FMI à la suite d'entretiens avec des représentants des autorités, est publié avec l'accord du pays concerné.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; growth facility; staff appraisal; authority
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Madagascar: Fourth Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility and Request for Waiver of Performance Criteria, Modification of Performance Criteria, and Augmentation of Access-Staff Report; Staff Supplement and Statement; Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Madagascar
International Monetary Fund
This paper discusses key findings of the Fourth Review Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) for Madagascar. Program performance has been generally good. The authorities have continued to implement sound fiscal and monetary policies that have resulted in good macroeconomic outcomes. They met all of the quantitative performance criteria (PCs) for end-January 2008, but missed two structural PCs. The international reserves cover is expected to deteriorate markedly, prompting the authorities to ask for an augmentation of 15 percent of quota, a request that IMF staff supports.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; growth facility; staff appraisal; authority; Three-Year arrangement; directorate General; IMF staff representative; International reserves; Inflation; Global; Southern Africa; Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Macroeconomic Effects of Counterpart Funds and the Underlying Foreign Aid
Mr. Christian B. Mulder
Counterpart funds generated through foreign currency or commodity aid have again become an issue of interest, in view of the substantial buildup of these funds. Contrary to the usual approach a model is developed in this paper, which takes account of the budgetary impact, supply-side and money demand effects of counterpart funds and the underlying foreign aid. This model is used to show that counterpart funds need not have any economic impact if their creation, use, and effects are adequately monitored and understood, both by donors and by the authorities in the recipient country. The policy rules that ensure an inflation- and foreign reserves-neutral result from expected and unexpected foreign aid are derived and contrasted with a policy rule regarding unexpected foreign aid that is sometimes observed in IMF programs. A feasible alternative is developed. Various real world complications are shown not to alter the conclusions.
Keywords:
WP; money supply; counterpart funds; foreign currency; commodity aid; money supply equation; counterpart fund creation; counterpart fund spending; foreign currency aid; Monetary base; Credit; International reserves; Reserve positions; Africa
Cover Selected Decisions (7th Ed)
Selected Decisions (7th Ed)
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

This volume is the Seventh Issue of Selected Decisions of the IMF and Selected Documents. It contains the decisions, interpretations, and resolutions of the Executive Directors and the Board of Governors of the IMF to which frequent reference is made in the current activities of the Fund. In addition, the volume contains certain documents relating to the IMF and the United Nations. This issue contains most of the decisions that were published in earlier issues but not decisions that have ceased to be effective or that are referred to less frequently than in the past. A substantial part of this volume is devoted to decisions taken by the IMF since the last issue. With few exceptions, the decisions in this volume are general in application and relate to obligations, policies, or procedures under the Articles of Agreement. Subject to the few exceptions referred to, decisions that affect individual members are not included. Decisions of the Fund that are included in the By-Laws and the Rules and Regulations are general in application but are not reproduced in this volume.

Keywords:
SELD; fund; matter of interpretation; net income of the fund; capital transfer; decision No. 1238; exchange transaction; Currencies; Gold; Multiple currency practices; Credit; Exchange rates; Global; Reserve assets; International monetary system
Cover IMF Staff Papers
IMF Staff papers: Volume 16 No. 2
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
This paper shows how to utilize the data on trade structure to achieve the best possible estimates of the effects of price changes, given any reasonable array of elasticity estimates. The credibility of estimates of price effects depends on thorough and systematic use of these data, as well as on the statistical credentials of the elasticities assumed. The observations show that the impact of a given price change on a country's exports will be greater, the more that country's exports are concentrated in markets in which substitution elasticities are high, and vice versa, but for most countries strong correlations of this kind are not probable. The general conclusion to be drawn from the paper would seem to be that the information implicit in the base-period matrix is not enough to yield results in which a high degree of confidence can be placed. It remains essential to employ substitution elasticities that are supported by the historical record. Nevertheless, the role of trade structure is vitally important.
Keywords:
SP; investment; price change; income velocity; CFA country; credit model; balance of payments position; dinero más cuasi-dinero; Personal income; Exports; Imports; Agricultural commodities; Capital spending; Global; West Africa; Africa; South America