Africa > Madagascar, Republic of

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Mindaugas Leika
,
Hector Perez-Saiz
,
Ms. Olga Ilinichna Stankova
, and
Torsten Wezel
The paper finds that supervisory stress tests are conducted in more than half of sub-Saharan African countries, particularly in western and southern Africa, and that the number of individual stress tests has grown exponentially since the early 2010s. By contrast, few central banks publish assessments of macro-financial linkages; the focus leans more toward discussing trends and weaknesses within the financial sector than on outside risks that may negatively affect its performance.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Despite some electoral cycle-related uncertainties—the preparation and holding of the Presidential election in December 2018 and Parliamentary elections in May 2019—economic developments remained favorable in 2018 and the first months of 2019. Macroeconomic slippages were limited, with spending strictly contained within budget limits. The stable functioning of public institutions allowed for continued implementation of the economic reform program.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses Republic of Madagascar’s Fifth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement. Madagascar’s performance under its economic program supported by the ECF arrangement has remained generally strong. Discussions focused on the recently adopted 2019 revised budget law, which reflects the priorities of the new government and accommodates additional investment spending without undermining the main program objectives, as well as on the two main challenges relating to fuel pricing and the losses of the public utility JIRAMA. Other issues discussed included the strengthening of social safety nets, reforms in the financial sector, and progress on governance. Growth has been solid, inflation has been moderate, and the external position has remained robust. Going forward, the authorities’ continued commitment to strong policies and an ambitious structural reform agenda will be key to mitigating internal and external risks, strengthening macroeconomic stability, and achieving higher, sustainable, and inclusive growth.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Le défi posé aux autorités malgaches est de développer le système financier tout en préservant la stabilité financière. Le secteur financier a survécu relativement bien aux turbulences économiques et politiques des dix dernières années grâce à une stratégie prudente, mais peu de progrès ont été accomplis dans l’approfondissement du marché financier ou l’inclusion financière. Le passage à un régime plus dynamique et ouvert pourrait s’accompagner de risques importants si les règlementations et pratiques prudentielles ne sont pas très sensiblement renforcées.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This paper discusses key findings of the Financial System Stability Assessment concerning Madagascar. The analysis reveals that the Madagascar’s banking sector is exposed to significant risks, though it has certain buffers, such as high profitability and a stable deposit base. Currently the economy is recovering, and enjoys the prospect of resumption in inflows of foreign aid and investment; inflation is coming down and the balance of payments has strengthened. Banking supervision is not yet able to proactively detect and address emerging risks; doing so will require additional resources and political will. Efforts are also needed to promote financial deepening and inclusion, consistent with the maintenance of stability and consumer protection.
International Monetary Fund
The insurance sector is underdeveloped and has been inadequately supervised to date, as the regulator lacks the requisite independence, skills, and resources. The three public pension systems, which cover less than 10 percent of the active population, appear to be fiscally unsustainable. The banking regulatory and supervisory framework is broadly adequate, although implementation and enforcement need further strengthening. The weak financial position of the Central Bank of Madagascar (BCM) could undermine macroeconomic and financial policies and contribute to economic and financial instability.