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Africa > Madagascar, Republic of

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Building Statistical Capacity in Fragile and Conflict-Affected States
Yasmin Alem
and
Jacinta Bernadette Shirakawa
Based on internal data, this paper finds that the capacity development program of the IMF’s Statistics Department has prioritized technical assistance and training to fragile and conflict-affected states. These interventions have yielded only slightly weaker results in fragile states than in other states. However, capacity development is constantly needed to make up for the dissipation of progress resulting from insufficient resources that fragile and conflict-affected states allocate to the statistical function, inadequate inter-agency coordination, and the pervasive impact of shocks exogenous to the statistical system. Greater coordination with other capacity development providers and within the IMF can help partially overcome low absorptive capacity in fragile states. Statistical capacity development is more effective when it is tailored to countries’ level of fragility.
Keywords:
Capacity Development; Statistics; Data; Fragile States; Sta CD mission; government finance statistics manual; Sta CD delivery; Sta CD spending; World Bank methodology assessment; Income; Government finance statistics; External sector statistics; Information and data management; Middle East and Central Asia; Pacific Islands; Middle East; West Africa; Africa; Central Africa; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Madagascar: 2017 Article IV Consultation, First Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, and Request for Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion, Modification of Performance Criterion and Augmentation of Access-Press Release; Staff Report; Informational Annex, Debt Sustainability Analysis, and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Madagascar
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that economic developments in Madagascar were encouraging in 2016. Driven by public investment, increasing textile exports, and accelerating activity in agroindustry, economic growth reached 4.2 percent in 2016—the highest level since 2008. Reforms continued in revenue administration, and fiscal revenue exceeded targets. Inflation was contained at 7.0 percent at end-2016. The external position strengthened significantly, benefitting from a positive shock to vanilla export prices and strong growth in manufacturing exports. In spite of current challenges, the medium term outlook is favorable. Growth is projected to accelerate, driven by the investment scaling up, tourism, garments and other light manufacturing, mining, and productivity gains in agriculture.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; authority; public utility company JIRAMA; current account; exchange rate; ECF arrangement; Executive Board assessment; investment program; one-off recapitalization; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Madagascar: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
KEY ISSUES Context: Madagascar is one of the poorest countries in the world. Weak economic growth has contributed to persistent and increasing poverty with deteriorating social indicators. In a fragile environment, the uncertainty linked to political instability, weak institutions, and weak governance has eroded the foundation for solid economic growth, with short-term rent-seeking having taken precedence over longer-term nation building. Outlook and Risks: The authorities are at a crossroads. A well-prioritized medium-term economic program that is implemented concertedly would increase growth and reduce poverty. This will require resources in order to undertake essential investment in infrastructure, as well as to increase social spending on education and health. However, there are downside risks, whereby a slow pace of reform implementation would keep Madagascar on a path of economic stagnation and persistent poverty. Fiscal Policy: There is a need to increase fiscal space in order to raise the level and efficiency of pro-poor/pro-growth spending while preserving debt sustainability. This will involve a broadening of the tax base, supported by a comprehensive revenue mobilization strategy, improving the composition and quality of budgetary spending, and reinforcing public financial management. Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies: To facilitate an active monetary policy and safeguard macroeconomic stability, it will be important to increase central bank independence, strengthen its oversight mechanisms, and recapitalize the central bank. A floating regime remains appropriate, but it will be important to ensure that the foreign exchange market is liquid and reflects market conditions. Structural Reforms: There is a need to strengthen the economic climate, including through improved governance and social development policies that would send a clear signal, both within society and to development partners, confirming the government’s commitment to reform. To help build public support for continued reforms, it would be advisable to build an early track record of “small victories/quick wins”.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; financing; government; government transfer; policy; private sector growth; pressing infrastructure needs; budget financing; balance of payments; government institution; addressing Madagascar's challenge; transition regime; Credit; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global; Middle East; Europe; Africa