Africa > Madagascar, Republic of

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Dominique Fayad
Food insecurity dramatically increased in Madagascar over the last 10 years, hampering human development. Using most recent data and surveys conducted by UN Agencies and local authorities, this paper analyzes the root causes of food insecurity in Madagascar related to demographic vulnerabilities, multidimensional poverty, lack of education, as well as structural weaknesses in the food value chain and the lack of basic infrastructure, such as irrigation and transportation, that hamper agricultural activity development. Moreover, Madagascar is exposed to a large variety of climate shocks that climate change will likely exacerbate. This paper formulates country specific macroeconomic and operational policy recommendations in collaboration with the World Food Program to reduce food insecurity, which include i) measures to improve the emergency response and preparedness, ii) policies to address structural food insecurity, by improving the food chain and addressing challenges posed by climate shocks, and iii) measures to improve Green PFM and climate related public investment management to invest in long-term resilience and mobilize external financing.
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Madagascar is exposed to a multitude of climate hazards such as tropical cyclones, droughts, and floods, which cause significant damage to key sectors, thereby undermining development efforts. Madagascar continues to develop strategies and policies for addressing climate change, including commitments under the Nationally Determined Contribution, natural disaster risk management, adaptation measures, and ongoing public financial management and public investment management reforms. Resilience to climate shocks and natural disasters can only be achieved through a combination of climate measures, public investment efficiency measures and public investments in both human capital and resilient infrastructure.
International Monetary Fund. Office of Budget and Planning
The paper presents highlights from the FY 2020 budget, followed by a discussion of outputs based on the Fund Thematic Categories and of inputs.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents 2019 Article IV Consultation with the Republic of Madagascar and its Sixth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement. Madagascar’s performance under its economic program supported by the ECF arrangement has been broadly satisfactory with solid growth, moderate single digit inflation, and a robust external position. As a fragile, low-income country, Madagascar continues to face risks associated with weak implementation capacity, potential fiscal slippages, social fragility in a context of widespread poverty, and vulnerability to exogenous shocks including to terms of trade and natural disasters. Going forward, a commitment to strong policies and an ambitious agenda to complete outstanding structural reforms remains crucial to mitigate internal and external risks, strengthen macroeconomic stability, and achieve higher, sustainable, and inclusive growth. The authorities’ economic reform agenda summarized in the Plan Emergence Madagascar aims to raise economic growth through increased public and private investment, strengthening human capital, and improving governance. Creating additional fiscal space by further improving revenue mobilization through a medium-term tax revenue strategy, containing lower priority spending, and enhancing investment implementation capacity is essential for scaling-up priority investment and social spending in education, health, and housing.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyses tax revenue mobilization potential in Madagascar and lessons learned from successful episodes in sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. The analysis shows that there is a significant tax potential including through a possible broadening of the tax base, notably for consumption taxation; and underscores the importance of a comprehensive revenue strategy, including by combining reforms in tax policy and in tax and customs administrations. Significant progress has been made in terms of organization, simplification of procedures, management, and dialogue with the taxpayers. Communication between the two tax administrations could be improved. The tax administrations should notify each other if a case of fraud. Also, the domestic tax administration should have access to customs import/export data: many importers are active and make customs declarations without being identified by the domestic tax administration. Given the weaknesses in the provision of public services, social dialogue and consultation are important to explain the rationality of the tax system and the use of the tax revenue by the State.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Despite some electoral cycle-related uncertainties—the preparation and holding of the Presidential election in December 2018 and Parliamentary elections in May 2019—economic developments remained favorable in 2018 and the first months of 2019. Macroeconomic slippages were limited, with spending strictly contained within budget limits. The stable functioning of public institutions allowed for continued implementation of the economic reform program.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses Republic of Madagascar’s Fifth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement. Madagascar’s performance under its economic program supported by the ECF arrangement has remained generally strong. Discussions focused on the recently adopted 2019 revised budget law, which reflects the priorities of the new government and accommodates additional investment spending without undermining the main program objectives, as well as on the two main challenges relating to fuel pricing and the losses of the public utility JIRAMA. Other issues discussed included the strengthening of social safety nets, reforms in the financial sector, and progress on governance. Growth has been solid, inflation has been moderate, and the external position has remained robust. Going forward, the authorities’ continued commitment to strong policies and an ambitious structural reform agenda will be key to mitigating internal and external risks, strengthening macroeconomic stability, and achieving higher, sustainable, and inclusive growth.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Madagascar’s economic recovery continued in 2018, notwithstanding challenges related to the presidential election in November/December 2018. While some economic pressures developed in the second half of 2018, economic conditions remained generally positive. Completion of the presidential election, continued implementation of the economic reform program, and stable functioning of public institutions have buttressed confidence, and the newly-elected President has committed to pursuing the country’s reform program, including plans to address some slippages.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses Madagascar’s Fourth Review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria. Madagascar’s economic recovery continued in 2018, notwithstanding challenges related to the presidential election in November/December 2018. While some economic pressures developed in the second half of 2018, economic conditions remained generally positive. The discussions focused on maintaining progress on the key objectives of the program, especially boosting fiscal space for priority investment and social spending by containing lower priority spending. The main challenges involved fuel pricing and transfers to the public utility, JIRAMA. Other issues included structural reforms to promote inclusive growth, most notably in investment capacity, the financial sector, and governance. The outlook continues to be generally positive. Pursuit of economic reforms should yield results, while the pressures in 2018 from higher oil prices and pre-electoral weakness in confidence abate under the baseline. As a low-income country with an open economy, Madagascar remains vulnerable to exogenous shocks.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The gradual economic recovery in this fragile state has persisted, with solid growth for the second consecutive year. Fiscal performance has been strong, inflation contained, and the external position robust. Implementation of the authorities’ economic program, supported by an Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement approved in July 2016, has been generally strong, buttressing the recovery.