Africa > Madagascar, Republic of

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International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents Republic of Madagascar’s Request for an Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and Cancellation of the Current Arrangement under the ECF and Request for an Arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). The RSF arrangement will underpin reforms to strengthen adaptation to climate change and resilience against natural disasters, support climate change mitigation efforts, enhance the protection of ecosystems, and create conditions for green private sector investment. Madagascar continues to face challenges, with economic growth easing in a context of weak fiscal performance and gradual reform progress. Going forward, climate change poses significant risks to Madagascar’s economy. The authorities are implementing measures to create fiscal space for much needed social spending and investment. These include medium-term revenue mobilization efforts through tax policy and revenue administration measures. Tackling climate change challenges will be critical for Madagascar’s medium-term macroeconomic resilience. The report suggests that the authorities should take full advantage of the support provided by the IMF and the World Bank through the Enhanced Cooperation Framework for Climate Action, and by other development partners to catalyze private climate financing.
Jean-François Wen
Turnover taxes are prevalent in developing countries as a simple form of presumptive taxation of business income. Such simplified tax regimes can reduce the relatively high compliance costs of micro and small enterprises, which might otherwise discourage entrepreneurs from formalizing their activities and paying taxes. The note addresses design issues for a turnover tax regime—which taxes it replaces, what the criteria are for eligibility, how to determine the optimal threshold, and how to set the tax rate. A key observation is that, although low turnover tax rates may incite larger firms to artificially reduce their sales, the rate should also not be so high as to discourage formalization of activities. A table of tax rates and turnover thresholds observed internationally is provided. The note concludes by suggesting analytical steps to guide practitioners in designing turnover tax regimes.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses Republic of Madagascar’s Fourth Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Requests for a Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria and Modification of Performance Criteria. Madagascar’s growth has decelerated, and inflation remains high. Program performance remains mixed with a breach of the 2022 deficit target but progress on the structural reform agenda. The authorities have also adopted the necessary changes to the public procurement legal framework to allow for the collection and publication of ultimate beneficiary owner information and submitted a revised mining code in line with IMF staff recommendations to Parliament. The authorities are taking measures to adjust non-priority spending in the face of lower-than-expected revenue in 2023. It is proposed to relax the 2023 domestic primary deficit target to accommodate higher transfers to the electricity state-owned enterprises that reported record losses in 2022 and accumulated large arrears. Related modifications of other quantitative performance criteria are also proposed. Improvement in budget execution, transparency, and governance are critically needed to foster stronger and sustainable growth.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
En 2022, le PIB réel a dépassé son niveau antérieur à la pandémie. Cela étant, le repli de la demande émanant des partenaires commerciaux, les phénomènes météorologiques récents et le risque d’accentuation des tensions politiques à l’approche des élections présidentielles, prévues en novembre 2023, continueront de peser sur les perspectives en 2023. Le déficit budgétaire s’est creusé dernièrement, mais le règlement des dettes croisées avec les distributeurs de pétrole devrait améliorer le solde budgétaire en 2023 et réduire les risques budgétaires à l’avenir.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper focuses on Republic of Madagascar’s 2022 Article IV Consultation, Third Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, and Requests for a Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria and Modification of Performance Criteria. Two years of pandemic and multiple climate shocks have aggravated Madagascar’s fragility. The outlook is highly uncertain with risks tilted to the downside. Madagascar continues to face risks associated with social fragility, weak state capacity, and climate shocks. While Madagascar’s economy rebounded faster than expected in 2021, growth is projected at 4.2 percent in 2022–2023. The authorities should further their efforts to enhance budget credibility and fiscal transparency. Recently adopted public financial management reforms are expected to contribute to better budget execution in 2023. Measures to enhance the legal framework for public procurement contracts would be welcome. Overall program performance is mixed. Despite some macroeconomic slippages, the implementation of structural reforms is gaining momentum. Improving governance and accelerating reforms to increase transparency and accountability are key to deliver higher and more inclusive growth.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper focuses on Republic of Madagascar’s 2022 Article IV Consultation, Third Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, and Requests for a Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria and Modification of Performance Criteria. Two years of pandemic and multiple climate shocks have aggravated Madagascar’s fragility. The outlook is highly uncertain with risks tilted to the downside. Madagascar continues to face risks associated with social fragility, weak state capacity, and climate shocks. While Madagascar’s economy rebounded faster than expected in 2021, growth is projected at 4.2 percent in 2022–2023. The authorities should further their efforts to enhance budget credibility and fiscal transparency. Recently adopted public financial management reforms are expected to contribute to better budget execution in 2023. Measures to enhance the legal framework for public procurement contracts would be welcome. Overall program performance is mixed. Despite some macroeconomic slippages, the implementation of structural reforms is gaining momentum. Improving governance and accelerating reforms to increase transparency and accountability are key to deliver higher and more inclusive growth.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Madagascar has not yet recovered from the pandemic and is struggling with the aftermath of a severe cyclone season and the fallout of Russia’s war in Ukraine. After a sharp contraction of GDP in 2020 (-7.1 percent) and a modest recovery in 2021 (4.3 percent), growth is projected to stall in 2022. Lower demand from trading partners, higher fuel and food prices, and recent weather events are weighing on economic activity and leading to widening fiscal and external deficits in the short term.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Madagascar has not yet recovered from the pandemic and is struggling with the aftermath of a severe cyclone season and the fallout of Russia’s war in Ukraine. After a sharp contraction of GDP in 2020 (-7.1 percent) and a modest recovery in 2021 (4.3 percent), growth is projected to stall in 2022. Lower demand from trading partners, higher fuel and food prices, and recent weather events are weighing on economic activity and leading to widening fiscal and external deficits in the short term.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Madagascar continues to be severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. After a contraction of GDP estimated at 7.1 percent in 2020, the economic recovery has been sluggish, partly reflecting a delayed reopening of the economy. Postponement of some external budget support, following delays in structural reforms, will open a fiscal financing gap in 2022.
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
This management implementation plan (MIP) proposes actions in response to the Independent Evaluation Office (IEO)’s report on growth and adjustment in IMF-supported programs. The full implementation of the MIP package will help ensure that, at a time when many countries face strong headwinds, IMF-supported programs not only deliver necessary adjustment to address balance of payments needs but also pay greater attention to their growth effects. While the policy-related deliverables are already incorporated into current departmental work plans and budgets, the operational implementation of these recommendations may require mobilizing additional resources.