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Africa > Madagascar, Republic of

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Building Statistical Capacity in Fragile and Conflict-Affected States
Yasmin Alem
and
Jacinta Bernadette Shirakawa
Based on internal data, this paper finds that the capacity development program of the IMF’s Statistics Department has prioritized technical assistance and training to fragile and conflict-affected states. These interventions have yielded only slightly weaker results in fragile states than in other states. However, capacity development is constantly needed to make up for the dissipation of progress resulting from insufficient resources that fragile and conflict-affected states allocate to the statistical function, inadequate inter-agency coordination, and the pervasive impact of shocks exogenous to the statistical system. Greater coordination with other capacity development providers and within the IMF can help partially overcome low absorptive capacity in fragile states. Statistical capacity development is more effective when it is tailored to countries’ level of fragility.
Keywords:
Capacity Development; Statistics; Data; Fragile States; Sta CD mission; government finance statistics manual; Sta CD delivery; Sta CD spending; World Bank methodology assessment; Income; Government finance statistics; External sector statistics; Information and data management; Middle East and Central Asia; Pacific Islands; Middle East; West Africa; Africa; Central Africa; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
How do Climate Shocks Affect the Impact of FDI, ODA and Remittances on Economic Growth?
Alassane Drabo
The three main financial inflows to developing countries have largely increased during the last two decades, despite the large debate in the literature regarding their effects on economic growth which is not yet clear-cut. An emerging literature investigates the dependence of their effects on some country characteristics such as human and physical capital constraint, macroeconomic policy and institutional capacity. This paper extends the literature by arguing that climate shocks may undermine the effect of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), official development assistance (ODA) and migrants’ remittances on economic expansion. Based on neoclassical growth framework, the theoretical model indicates that FDI, ODA, and remittances improve economic growth, and the size of the effect increases with good absorptive capacity. However, climate shocks reduce this positive effect of financial flows in developing countries. Using a sample of low and middle-income countries from 1995 to 2018, the empirical investigation confirms the theoretical conclusions. Developing countries should build strong resilience to climate change. Actions are also needed at global level to reduce greenhouse gases emissions, and build strong structural resilience to climate shocks especially in developing countries.
Keywords:
inflows-economic growth nexus; effect of ODA; income group; role of Climate; effect of foreign direct investment; Climate change; Absorptive capacity; Foreign direct investment; Human capital; Middle East; East Asia; Asia and Pacific; North Africa; South Asia; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Will the Economic Impact of COVID-19 Persist? Prognosis from 21st Century Pandemics
Johannes Emmerling
,
Davide Furceri
,
Francisco Líbano Monteiro
,
Mr. Prakash Loungani
,
Mr. Jonathan David Ostry
,
Pietro Pizzuto
, and
Massimo Tavoni
COVID-19 has had a disruptive economic impact in 2020, but how long its impact will persist remains unclear. We offer a prognosis based on an analysis of the effects of five previous major epidemics in this century. We find that these pandemics led to significant and persistent reductions in disposable income, along with increases in unemployment, income inequality and public debt-to-GDP ratios. Energy use and CO2 emissions dropped, but mostly because of the persistent decline in the level of economic activity rather than structural changes in the energy sector. Applying our empirical estimates to project the impact of COVID-19, we foresee significant scarring in economic performance and income distribution through 2025, which be associated with an increase in poverty of about 75 million people. Policy responses more effective than those in the past would be required to forestall these outcomes.
Keywords:
impulse response; effects of pandemic; list of pandemic; pandemic event; baseline estimate; impact of COVID-19; COVID-19; Greenhouse gas emissions; Income inequality; Income distribution; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Madagascar: A Competitiveness and Exchange Rate Assessment
Luc Eyraud
The purpose of this paper is to assess Madagascar's competitiveness in recent years, using both price and nonprice indicators and an exchange rate assessment of the currency. We estimate the distance between the equilibrium and the actual real exchange rates using three methods: the macroeconomic balance approach, the external sustainability approach, and the reduced-form equilibrium real exchange rate approach. These methods suggest that in the medium term the real exchange rate is only slightly overvalued. We also carry out a comparative analysis of nonprice indicators and find that Madagascar performs less favorably than its competitors on structural competitiveness.
Keywords:
WP; exchange rate; Madagascar; current account; price
Cover IMF Working Papers
How does a domestic tax reform affect protection against imports? The case of the Republic of Madagascar
Mr. Jean-Jacques Hallaert
In 2008, Madagascar reformed its domestic tax system. Because the excise duties and VAT regimes were reformed, the taxation of imports has changed. This paper quantifies how the reform changes the protection against imports and the fiscal revenues from taxation of imports. It shows that, even if the reform has only a limited impact on the average rate of protection, it substantially alters the structure of protection across goods. Moreover, because the reform further increases the already high rate of taxation of imports, it will also boost revenue from taxes on imports and reduce the fiscal losses from the SADC FTA.
Keywords:
WP; import; tariff; rate; taxation of imports
Cover IMF Working Papers
Financial Development and Poverty Reduction: Can There Be a Benefit Without a Cost?
Sylviane Guillaumont Jeanneney
and
Mr. Kangni R Kpodar
This article investigates how financial development helps to reduce poverty directly through the McKinnon conduit effect and indirectly through economic growth. The results obtained with data for a sample of developing countries from 1966 through 2000 suggest that the poor benefit from the ability of the banking system to facilitate transactions and provide savings opportunities but to some extent fail to reap the benefit from greater availability of credit. Moreover, financial development is accompanied by financial instability, which is detrimental to the poor. Nevertheless, the benefits of financial development for the poor outweigh the cost.
Keywords:
WP; GDP; poverty gap; headcount poverty
Cover IMF Working Papers
Evaluating Alternative Approaches to Poverty Alleviation: Rice Tariffs Versus Targeted Transfers in Madagascar
Paul A. Dorosh
,
Mr. David Coady
, and
Bart Minten
This paper uses a partial equilibrium framework to evaluate the relative efficiency, distributional and revenue implications of rice tariffs and targeted transfers in Madagascar, especially in the context of identifying their respective roles for poverty alleviation. Although there are likely to be substantial efficiency gains from tariff reductions, these accrue mainly to higher income households. In addition, poor net rice sellers will lose from lower tariffs. Developing a system of well designed and implemented targeted direct transfers to poor households is thus likely to be a substantially more costeffective approach to poverty alleviation. Such an approach should be financed by switching revenue raising from rice tariffs to more efficient tax instruments. These policy conclusions are likely to be robust to the incorporation of general equilibrium considerations.
Keywords:
WP; transfer program; demand and supply
Cover IMF Working Papers
Can Regional Integration Accelerate Development in Africa? CGE Model Simulations of the Impact of the SADC FTA on the Republic of Madagascar
Mr. Jean-Jacques Hallaert
Madagascar plans to start phasing out its customs tariffs on imports from the Southern African Development Community in 2007. This paper uses a CGE model to evaluate the impact of the SADC FTA on Madagascar economy. The results suggest that the SADC FTA would only have a limited impact on Madagascar's real GDP because the liberalization affects only a small share of its total imports. However, Madagascar's trade and production pattern would change and benefit the textile and clothing sector. Removing rigidities in the labor and capital market would increase the gains but they would remain limited. Gains from the SADC FTA become substantial only when the regional liberalization is accompanied by a multilateral liberalization.
Keywords:
WP; Madagascar; trade diversion; SADC FTA; liberalization
Cover IMF Working Papers
Money Demand and Inflation in Madagascar
Koffie Ben Nassar
This paper uses a two-sector model to estimate the relationship between prices, money, and the exchange rate in Madagascar during the period 1982-2004. The estimated model, using quarterly data, finds a stable long-run relationship among monetary aggregates, domestic prices, real income, and foreign interest rates. In addition, the error-correction model shows that changes in the monetary aggregates, the exchange rate, and foreign interest rates exert a significant impact on inflation. The results also suggest that a disequilibrium in the money market has a lasting impact on inflation. The paper concludes with policy recommendations.
Keywords:
WP; real GDP
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate of the Malagasy Franc: Estimation and Assessment
Mr. John Cady
Employing cointegration techniques, the long-run determinants of Madagascar's real exchange rate are examined from a stock-flow perspective. The long-run behavior of the real effective exchange rate is explained by the net foreign asset position and factors affecting trade flows. An index of the long-run equilibrium real exchange rate is developed to assess the degree of misalignment. The general conclusions are that the Malagasy franc has experienced significant misalignment in the past, but that the recent appreciation of the real effective exchange rate is consistent with changes in the fundamentals, particularly anticipated improvements in the net foreign assets position stemming from Madagascar's eligibility for assistance under the enhanced HIPC Initiative.
Keywords:
WP; estimation; coefficient; Madagascar; vector; real exchange rate; cointegration; exchange rate misalignment; coefficient estimate; Engle-granger estimation technique; Johansen estimation technique; integration vector; cointigration estimation technique; Johansen method estimate; estimation period; test statistics; Real exchange rates; Real effective exchange rates; Terms of trade; Estimation techniques; Foreign assets