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International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Context. The gradual economic recovery has continued, with solid growth despite the drought and cyclone that hit Madagascar in early 2017. Fiscal performance has been roughly as planned, with strong revenue performance offsetting unexpected spending pressures in 2017. Monetary and exchange rate policy has successfully managed the challenges from external developments. Focus. Discussions focused on creating fiscal space for priority investment and social spending, promoting investment for inclusive and sustainable growth, maintaining stable inflation, and advancing key structural reforms in economic governance and financial sector development.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses Madagascar’s Second Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria (PC). Madagascar’s implementation of its economic program supported by the ECF has remained strong. All quantitative PCs and indicative targets were met at end-June 2017, and the program’s structural agenda is also advancing. The gradual economic recovery has continued, with solid growth and continued macroeconomic stability despite the drought and cyclone that affected Madagascar in early 2017. Fiscal performance has been roughly as planned, with strong revenue performance offsetting some unexpected spending pressures in 2017.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Economic Development Document describes the strategy adopted by the government of Madagascar to reverse the trend of modest economic performance, deteriorating social conditions, and persistent poverty observed in recent years. This strategy addresses the underlying causes of poverty. The primary aim of the fiscal policy is to increase revenue and rationalize budget expenditure to provide ample margins to finance priority spending, specifically social and infrastructure spending. The priorities are to expand the tax base and continuing reform of tax and customs administration, and to eliminate the causes of inefficient public expenditure. The monetary policy is given the role of regulating domestic liquidity to normalize trends in economic activities and achieve the inflation targets of less than 10.0 percent.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that economic developments in Madagascar were encouraging in 2016. Driven by public investment, increasing textile exports, and accelerating activity in agroindustry, economic growth reached 4.2 percent in 2016—the highest level since 2008. Reforms continued in revenue administration, and fiscal revenue exceeded targets. Inflation was contained at 7.0 percent at end-2016. The external position strengthened significantly, benefitting from a positive shock to vanilla export prices and strong growth in manufacturing exports. In spite of current challenges, the medium term outlook is favorable. Growth is projected to accelerate, driven by the investment scaling up, tourism, garments and other light manufacturing, mining, and productivity gains in agriculture.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper surveys the economic costs of corruption in Madagascar, and provides a few ideas on how to advance anticorruption reforms. Madagascar’s governance indicators weakened significantly during the transition period 2009–13. Governance indicators that generally were on par with middle-income countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) ten years ago have regressed and converged to the average of fragile SSA countries. After the return of constitutional order in 2014, the government has started to address corruption, mainly through the introduction of new laws so far. More emphasis is needed on effective implementation and raising sufficient resources to fight corruption.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Le défi posé aux autorités malgaches est de développer le système financier tout en préservant la stabilité financière. Le secteur financier a survécu relativement bien aux turbulences économiques et politiques des dix dernières années grâce à une stratégie prudente, mais peu de progrès ont été accomplis dans l’approfondissement du marché financier ou l’inclusion financière. Le passage à un régime plus dynamique et ouvert pourrait s’accompagner de risques importants si les règlementations et pratiques prudentielles ne sont pas très sensiblement renforcées.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This paper discusses key findings of the Financial System Stability Assessment concerning Madagascar. The analysis reveals that the Madagascar’s banking sector is exposed to significant risks, though it has certain buffers, such as high profitability and a stable deposit base. Currently the economy is recovering, and enjoys the prospect of resumption in inflows of foreign aid and investment; inflation is coming down and the balance of payments has strengthened. Banking supervision is not yet able to proactively detect and address emerging risks; doing so will require additional resources and political will. Efforts are also needed to promote financial deepening and inclusion, consistent with the maintenance of stability and consumer protection.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Madagascar est un pays fragile qui s’efforce de se remettre d’une longue période (2009-2013) de crise politique et d’isolement international pendant laquelle les principaux indicateurs sociaux et de développement se sont dégradés. Le redressement pâtit de la faiblesse du recouvrement des recettes, du niveau élevé de dépenses publiques non prioritaires et de problèmes de gouvernance. Toutefois, les résultats, généralement satisfaisants, du programme de référence sur six mois qui s’est achevé en mars 2016, constituent un signe d’amélioration des capacités d’exécution.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses the Republic of Madagascar’s request for an arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and first review under the Staff Monitored Program (SMP). Madagascar’s macroeconomic performance was broadly satisfactory under the SMP, which ran from September 2015 to the end of March 2016. The authorities’ ECF-supported program, anchored on their National Development Plan, aims to reinforce macroeconomic stability and promote sustainable and inclusive growth. It focuses on promoting robust and inclusive growth, combining improved access to education, health care, and social protection with infrastructure and private sector development. The IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for an ECF.