A further deterioration of the global environment and a deepening of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic have worsened the macroeconomic outlook significantly, with growth now projected to be negative in 2020. As a result, urgent balance of payments needs arising from the pandemic are now estimated at 4.2 percent of GDP (compared to 1.8 percent), and the authorities have requested an additional disbursement under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) of 50 percent of quota
(SDR 122.2 million) under the “exogenous shock” window of the RCF. This follows Board approval on April 3, 2020 of the authorities’ request for 50 percent of quota, which took place before the annual access of the RCF was doubled to 100 percent of quota on April 6, 2020. This additional request, if approved, will bring total disbursements under the RCF to 100 percent of quota in 2020. The authorities have also requested temporary debt servicing relief under the G-20 Debt Service Suspension Initiative, supported by the G-20 and Paris Club.
Mindaugas Leika, Hector Perez-Saiz, Ms. Olga Ilinichna Stankova, and Torsten Wezel
The paper finds that supervisory stress tests are conducted in more than half of sub-Saharan African countries, particularly in western and southern Africa, and that the number of individual stress tests has grown exponentially since the early 2010s. By contrast, few central banks publish assessments of macro-financial linkages; the focus leans more toward discussing trends and weaknesses within the financial sector than on outside risks that may negatively affect its performance.
This paper discusses Republic of Madagascar’s Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF). The coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic is having a severe impact on Madagascar’s economy. Due to dramatic declines in tourism and disruptions to manufacturing and extractive industry exports, as well as transport, communications, and services, real gross domestic product growth is likely to decline sharply. The fiscal situation is also deteriorating rapidly with additional health and social spending outlays and a significant shortfall in tax revenue. Fund support under the RCF is expected to help the authorities meet the urgent fiscal and external financing needs to mitigate the impact of the pandemic. The authorities are taking immediate measures to address the human and economic impact of the pandemic, while preserving macroeconomic stability. These include increases in health spending, help to the most vulnerable, support to the private sector, and actions to preserve the stability of the financial sector and maintain the flexible exchange rate regime.
This paper presents 2019 Article IV Consultation with the Republic of Madagascar and its Sixth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement. Madagascar’s performance under its economic program supported by the ECF arrangement has been broadly satisfactory with solid growth, moderate single digit inflation, and a robust external position. As a fragile, low-income country, Madagascar continues to face risks associated with weak implementation capacity, potential fiscal slippages, social fragility in a context of widespread poverty, and vulnerability to exogenous shocks including to terms of trade and natural disasters. Going forward, a commitment to strong policies and an ambitious agenda to complete outstanding structural reforms remains crucial to mitigate internal and external risks, strengthen macroeconomic stability, and achieve higher, sustainable, and inclusive growth. The authorities’ economic reform agenda summarized in the Plan Emergence Madagascar aims to raise economic growth through increased public and private investment, strengthening human capital, and improving governance. Creating additional fiscal space by further improving revenue mobilization through a medium-term tax revenue strategy, containing lower priority spending, and enhancing investment implementation capacity is essential for scaling-up priority investment and social spending in education, health, and housing.
This Technical Assistance paper on the Republic of Madagascar explains the need for the Malagasy authorities to adopt the Government Finance Statistics Manual (GFSM) 2014 concepts, definitions, and methodology as part of the macroeconomic statistics improvement Project. The report recommends that it is important to improve macroeconomic analysis and monitoring of the overall impact of government finances on the country’s economy, something that other public finance ‘figures’ of a budgetary and accounting nature are not intended to do. The report shows that steady progress continues with the preparation of a bridge table between the chart of accounts and the GFSM 2014 classifications. Notable improvements have been made in the presentation of Other Net Treasury Operations, the detailed components of which were identified and can now be presented on a gross basis. Based on the progress made, the prospect of compiling consolidated GFS covering all subsectors of the Malagasy general government in a not-too-distant future is encouraging.
Despite some electoral cycle-related uncertainties—the preparation and holding of the Presidential election in December 2018 and Parliamentary elections in May 2019—economic developments remained favorable in 2018 and the first months of 2019. Macroeconomic slippages were limited, with spending strictly contained within budget limits. The stable functioning of public institutions allowed for continued implementation of the economic reform program.
This paper discusses Republic of Madagascar’s Fifth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement. Madagascar’s performance under its economic program supported by the ECF arrangement has remained generally strong. Discussions focused on the recently adopted 2019 revised budget law, which reflects the priorities of the new government and accommodates additional investment spending without undermining the main program objectives, as well as on the two main challenges relating to fuel pricing and the losses of the public utility JIRAMA. Other issues discussed included the strengthening of social safety nets, reforms in the financial sector, and progress on governance. Growth has been solid, inflation has been moderate, and the external position has remained robust. Going forward, the authorities’ continued commitment to strong policies and an ambitious structural reform agenda will be key to mitigating internal and external risks, strengthening macroeconomic stability, and achieving higher, sustainable, and inclusive growth.
This Technical Assistance report highlights that the mission visited Madagascar to aid in the external sector statistics (ESS), including the balance of payments and international investment position (IIP). The mission focused on assisting improving the coverage of IIP by better using the administrative sources or by identifying new data sources for private sector. A more sustained effort must be applied to the collection system to ensure the timelier submission of data of adequate quality. The compilation of the quarterly ESS, which is one of the main ESS objectives, requires both an increase in the number of compilers and a change of approach in the collection of source data. The quarterly data are compiled on the basis of the ESRI and should be supplemented by the collection of quarterly data using a simple survey of major public and private enterprises. The mission recommended a detailed one-year action plan with a set of priority recommendations carrying particular weight to make headway in improving the ESS.