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Europe > Montenegro

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Cover Regional Economic Outlook, October 2020, Europe
Regional Economic Outlook, October 2020, Europe
Whatever It Takes: Europe’s Response to COVID-19
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused dramatic loss of human life and major damage to the European economy, but thanks to an exceptionally strong policy response, potentially devastating outcomes have been avoided.

Keywords:
lockdowns; pandemic; corporate liquidity; recovery; reopening; economic outlook; forecasting; REO; policy support; infection curve; job retention program; Europe transform; financial market disruption; pandemic economy; solvency risks in Europe; time trend; reopening indices; infection incidence; reinfection risk; infection rate; credit access; containment policy; COVID-19; Liquidity; Solvency; Infrastructure; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Montenegro: Request for Purchase under the Rapid Financing Instrument; Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Montenegro
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The COVID-19 pandemic will hit Montenegro hard, as tourism is a key industry. Fiscal space has eroded in recent years due to large public capital outlays, and the COVID-19 crisis is creating new budgetary strains as health spending and other expenditures rise, while the economic contraction lowers revenues.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; financing; emergency financing request; IMF lending tracker; assistance; liquidity withdrawal requirement rate; financing gap; Executive Board discussion; Fiscal stance; Capital spending; Tourism; Global; COVID-19; Financial sector
Cover Departmental Papers
Public Infrastructure in the Western Balkans: Opportunities and Challenges
Mr. Ruben V Atoyan
,
Ms. Dora Benedek
,
Ezequiel Cabezon
,
Mr. Giuseppe Cipollone
,
Mr. Jacques A Miniane
,
Ms. Nhu Nguyen
,
Mr. Martin Petri
,
Mr. Jens Reinke
, and
Mr. James Roaf
An assessment of public infrastructure development in the Western Balkans. The paper quantifies the large gaps across various sectors/dimensions, evaluates current infrastructure plans, and discusses funding options available to countries in the region. The paper also identifies important bottlenecks for increased infrastructure investment. Finally, the paper quantifies potential growth benefits from addressing infrastructure gaps, concluding that boosting the quantity and quality of infrastructure is vital for raising economic growth and accelerating income convergence with the EU. The paper concludes with country-specific policy recommendations.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; capital stock; crowding in; private sector; EU country; IMF staff calculation; infrastructure investment; single market; financial support; management framework; EU accession prospect; investment plan; country's investment attractiveness; investment goods; IFI financing; accession prospect; Infrastructure; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Public investment spending; Capital spending; Europe; Central and Eastern Europe; Global; Baltics; EU integration process
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Montenegro: 2015 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Montenegro
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This report highlights the recent economic developments and outlook and risks related to the Montenegro’s economy. It also discusses policies which need to be implemented to boost growth. Montenegro’s economy has rebounded in the past year, and strong growth looks set to continue in 2016, at slightly more than 4 percent. Although the government’s growth strategy can bring substantial gains, it also carries sizable risks, notably to the public finances. The authorities have taken various policy measures to (1) contain fiscal sustainability risks, (2) sustainably revitalize credit conditions, (3) safeguard financial sector stability, and (4) boost competitiveness and economic flexibility.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; asset; production GDP estimate; asset quality; consumer price index; Montenegro; article IV staff; growth strategy; Montenegro's economy; Montenegro authorities; insurance oversight framework; assessment of the resilience; Credit; Public sector wages; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Montenegro: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
KEY ISSUES Context: Moderate growth is continuing; however credit and wage growth are weak. The level of nonperforming loans (NPLs) remains high and public debt has risen sharply in recent years. Fiscal policy: Medium-term funding needs to roll over existing debt and to fund budget deficits are large. A new highway, budgeted to cost about one quarter of GDP, will cause deficits to widen and add to public debt. The draft 2015 budget shows appropriate restraint on other spending, but a long period of strong fiscal discipline will be needed to manage fiscal risks. Laying out clear long-term plans for managing the public finances would boost credibility and reduce risks to market access. Fundamental expenditure reform, especially of the pension system and the public sector wage bill, would be an essential part of such plans. Financial sector: The banking system’s liquidity appears comfortable; however, profitability is low and lending spreads are high. Regulatory provisioning is set higher than that reported under international accounting standards, but a wide range of provisioning levels across banks and weak incentives to take losses remain concerns. A more transparent and comprehensive reporting environment would be beneficial. Reforms to ensure better enforcement of contracts and collateral would help bring down structural lending risk premia. Structural reform: Higher levels of labor participation and employment are needed to boost potential growth and safeguard the public finances. Ensuring that wages adjust in line with productivity alongside reforms to achieve better employment outcomes and boost productivity would enhance the economy’s ability to respond to macroeconomic shocks, and are even more important in a country that lacks its own currency and with decreasing fiscal buffers.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; authority; growth potential; public-sector wage bill; growth; banking system health indicator; Montenegrin authority; credit condition; financial asset; Loans; Current account balance; Income; Personal income; Global; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Montenegro: 2013 Article IV Consultation
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that Montenegro’s recovery from the collapse of the lending boom in 2008 has been slowed by the debt overhang that remains in the private sector. Output contracted in 2012 because of unusually severe winter weather early in the year, as well as a sharp decline in aluminum production as the financial position of the troubled aluminum company (KAP) continued to worsen. Activity picked up in early 2013 as more favorable weather conditions resulted in a sharp increase in hydro-based electricity production. A sustained, multi-year fiscal consolidation effort is needed to reduce the public debt burden to an appropriately low level in the medium term.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; debt; Montenegro; current account; private sector balance sheets; lending boom; labor market; sluggish private sector demand; financial asset; debt accumulation; Credit; Tourism; External sector statistics; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Montenegro: Staff Report for the 2012 Article IV Consultation
International Monetary Fund
This 2012 Article IV Consultation highlights that three years after the sudden end of Montenegro’s boom, there has been considerable progress toward recovery. Fiscal imbalances have proved difficult to rein in, reflecting a large fall in revenue after the collapse of the boom. Executive Directors have commended the authorities’ efforts to stabilize the economy, and welcomed the progress made since the financial crisis. Directors have also recognized the sizable public expenditure adjustment over the past few years, but underscored the need for further high-quality deficit reducing measures.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; commercial bank loan; staff appraisal; IMF staff representative; financing risk; deficit; privatization contract; Loan guarantees; Labor markets; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Albania: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
Inflation in Southeastern European (SEE) countries has been comparable with euro area inflation, partly owing to on the one hand, high initial price levels. On the other hand, the exchange rate regime is of paramount importance, including the inflation-targeting regime pursued in Albania. The analysis also explores additional heterogeneity between SEE and other regions. Two fiscal rules—a debt rule and an expenditure rule with a debt brake—are discussed in the context of Albania’s current economic outlook. Both rules will contribute toward enhancing fiscal sustainability in Albania.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; expenditure rule; rule; debt rule; SEE region; price level index; SEE country; GDP projection; excl. Serbia; Inflation; Fiscal rules; Exchange rate arrangements; Eastern Europe; Middle East; North Africa; Central Asia; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global
Cover IMF Survey
IMF Survey, Volume 36 Issue 02
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Montenegro, IMF membership, Peru loan, Lebanon, Murilo Portugal interview, IMF technical assistance (TA), Vietnam and WTO, Colombia, foreign direct investment, gender and economics, Arab economies, France and 35-hour week.
Keywords:
SV; SDR; SDR interest rate; center; FDI; IMF quota; UNDP Inter-American Development Bank; WTO accession; Washington conference; Foreign direct investment; Women; Labor force; East Asia; Africa; Global; Middle East; North Africa; East Africa