The COVID-19 pandemic will hit Montenegro hard, as tourism is a key industry. Fiscal space has eroded in recent years due to large public capital outlays, and the COVID-19 crisis is creating new budgetary strains as health spending and other expenditures rise, while the economic contraction lowers revenues.
The economic expansion in Montenegro is proceeding at full strength. The economy is overheating. Rapid credit growth is overstretching banks, and has contributed to ballooning asset prices. Eroding competitiveness is a concern. Management of the boom falls on fiscal policy. Tax cuts have been procyclical and potentially destabilizing. Fiscal risks need to be contained. The main focus of credit policy should be to strengthen banking sector supervision. Completing the transition to a market economy should be kept at the top of the policy agenda.