Europe > Montenegro

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Francesco Spadafora
,
Mr. Emidio Cocozza
, and
Mr. Andrea Colabella
This paper analyzes the impact of the global crisis on six South-Eastern European countries. The main objective is to compare macro-financial conditions and policies in the run-up to the crisis as well as to compare the policy responses to it, so as to highlight, inter alia, possible country-specific constraints. While sharing a common pre-crisis pattern of strong capital inflows and robust growth, a key difference in the conduct of macroeconomicpolicies is that some countries adopted expansionary (and procyclical) fiscal policies. These moves exacerbated external vulnerabilities and compromised the ability to discretionarily use the fiscal instrument in acountercyclical fashion.
International Monetary Fund
The Fourth Review Under the Extended Arrangement, Financing Assurances Review, and Request for Waiver of Performance Criteria for Serbia and Montenegro are discussed. The agreed tighter fiscal, monetary, and incomes policies should cool off wage and credit growth, which are driving the demand for imports. The bold resumption of structural reforms should over time help increase exports, which remain exceptionally low in reference to GDP. The fragile political situation could affect the ability of the reformist minority government to press ahead with bold reforms.
International Monetary Fund
This paper examines Serbia and Montenegro’s Third Review Under the Extended Arrangement and Requests for Waiver of Performance Criterion. Serbia and Montenegro’s recent economic performance has been mixed, combining excellent progress in some areas with an uncomfortably large current account deficit and modest growth in output and exports from low levels. The envisaged tightening of fiscal policy is broadly appropriate—albeit overly reliant on revenue measures. Achieving the fiscal deficit target will help narrow the current account deficit and place the fiscal and external accounts on sustainable paths.
International Monetary Fund
This paper assesses Serbia and Montenegro’s First Review Under the Extended Arrangement (EA). Serbia and Montenegro’s economic and policy performance has remained good under the current EA, but daunting challenges lie ahead. Macroeconomic policies need to be carefully calibrated to address potential risks to macroeconomic and financial instability, while the task of economic restructuring will be increasingly difficult. The IMF staff welcomes the authorities’ commitment to address delays in the adoption of reform legislation that led to nonobservance of some structural benchmarks and notes the need to avoid new slippages.
International Monetary Fund
This paper assesses the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia’s (FRY) 2002 Article IV Consultation, Third Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA), and a Request for an Extended Arrangement. Despite the impressive achievements since late 2000, when FRY succeeded to membership in the IMF, the challenges facing the authorities remain daunting. The FRY authorities’ medium-term program of stabilization sets a good basis for achieving sustainable growth and a viable external position, and deserves the continued support of the IMF through completion of the third review under the current SBA and approval of the proposed extended arrangement.
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper and Statistical Appendix for the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia outlines the progress made in the fiscal area since late 2000, focusing on the overall fiscal adjustment (developments in revenue and expenditure) and reforms of the tax system and social spending. The paper also presents an overview of financial sector reforms in Serbia and Montenegro, elaborates on the closure of the four largest state-owned banks in Serbia, and outlines progress in strengthening prudential supervision in both republics.
International Monetary Fund
This paper highlights the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia’s Second Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Modification of Performance Criteria. Economic activity is recovering from low levels in the Republic, while progress has been made in lowering inflation. Adjusting for large increases in administered prices and indirect taxes, core inflation is tentatively estimated at about 15–20 percent. The balance of payments feature a widening trade deficit and robust invisible receipts. The authorities are grateful for the wide range of technical assistance they received from the IMF and the World Bank.
International Monetary Fund
The government has implemented the IMF-supported program with impressive firmness and has moved quickly to adopt corrective measures as needed to ensure that it stays on track. Much has been accomplished in stabilization and structural reform within a short period. Achievement of the fiscal objectives will be challenging, in both Serbia and Montenegro. Continued progress in structural reform is important. The Federal Republic of Yugoslavia needs the continued support of donors and creditors. The World Bank is closely involved in the reconstruction efforts.
International Monetary Fund
The Federal Republic of Yugoslavia is faced with the task of stabilizing and reviving a devastated economy after years of military conflicts, sanctions, and economic mismanagement. A weakened institutional capacity and the still evolving political situation is a cause for concern. A short-term macroeconomic strategy is required to bring down inflation. The fiscal position should be improved, and the continued incurrence of expenditure arrears should be avoided. The government should adopt a comprehensive economic program of stabilization and reform that can be supported by the IMF.