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Europe > Montenegro

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Montenegro: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Montenegro
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation discusses that the Montenegrin economy grew robustly by 6 percent in 2023 as consumption remained strong, tourism revenues exceeded pre-pandemic levels, and the influx of relatively affluent Russian and Ukrainian nationals due to Russia’s war in Ukraine contributed to growth. Growth is expected to moderate to 3.7 percent in 2024 and ease further to about 3 percent over the medium term. While system-wide indicators of financial stability are healthy, the Central Bank Governor needs to remain vigilant regarding lingering pockets of vulnerability. In order to better inform policy judgements, trends in domestic advantage, as well as the banking sector’s growing exposure to foreign securities need to be closely monitored. Diversification both within and away from the tourism sector can help decrease the vulnerability of the economy to shocks. A more conducive environment for a small and medium enterprises sector would enable it to benefit from the presence of skilled migrants in the country.
Keywords:
production GDP estimate; EU integration; economic growth prospects; Policy discussion; CBM balance sheet; European Union initiative; Fiscal stance; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Montenegro: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Montenegro
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2019 Article IV Consultation with Montenegro highlights that while the implementation of large publicly financed infrastructure projects has added economic growth, the accompanying use of fiscal resources has contributed to a large increase in government debt including guarantees, which reached 79 percent of gross domestic product in 2018. Despite the recent intervention in two non-systemic domestic banks, the overall banking sector exhibits improving asset quality, strong credit growth, high liquidity, and is well capitalized. Efforts to improve banking and Anti-Money Laundering/Combating the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) supervision are paramount. The emphasis should be a shift to risk-based tools for supervision in both off-site and on-site functions, and the establishment of a stronger supervisory structure within the central bank. The main priorities are reduction of the labor tax wedge and implementation of the new labor law that aims to increase labor market flexibility. Future decisions on the minimum wage should consider a broad set of indicators and require careful analyses of the impact of past increases.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; authority; debt; CBM balance sheet; development goal; MONSTAT; Montenegro; Montenegrin authorities; banking sector supervision; liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; authorities' effort; MONSTAT report; Fiscal stance; Fiscal consolidation; Capital spending; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Montenegro: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that Montenegro’s economy is growing strongly, boosted by the implementation of large investment projects, including the construction of the Bar-Boljare highway. Growth should continue over the medium term, albeit at a more moderate pace as highway construction ends. The IMF staff projects the economy to expand by 3 percent in 2018 and 2.5 percent in 2019, with fiscal consolidation also acting as a moderate drag on growth. Although the implementation of large publicly financed infrastructure projects has added to economic growth, the accompanying use of fiscal resources has contributed to a large increase in government debt. Economic growth should remain strong in 2018, notwithstanding fiscal consolidation, and maintain momentum over the medium term.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; government; Montenegro; debt; GDP; surplus; CPI indexation; IMF TA; pension sustainability; government finances; Montenegrin authorities; government debt; public-sector workforce; Fiscal consolidation; Fiscal stance; Capital spending; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Serbia: Staff Report for the 2010 Article IV Consultation, Third Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement, and Financing Assurances Review
International Monetary Fund
This 2010 Article IV Consultation highlights that the authorities’ adjustment program has contributed to limiting the fallout of the global crisis on Serbia. Although the output slump has been limited relative to regional peers, the decline in domestic demand has been significant, resulting in a strong external adjustment. The outlook for 2010 points to a slow but balanced recovery. The pickup in growth will likely be moderate, reflecting slow trading-partner recovery, protracted corporate deleveraging, nominal freezes in public wages and pensions, and lagging labor market adjustment.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; policy; tolerance band; policy action; adjustment strategy; regime; inflation expectation; consumer cash loan; growth potential; Pension spending; Fiscal stance; Balance of payments statistics; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Montenegro: 2008 Article IV Consultation: Staff Report; Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Montenegro
International Monetary Fund
This 2008 Article IV Consultation highlights that Montenegro has made significant progress in overhauling its economy. The authorities have taken several welcomed steps to help strengthen financial sector stability. Executive Directors have welcomed the structural reforms implemented over the past few years and financial integration that have helped Montenegro attract substantial foreign direct investment and generate rapid growth with moderate inflation. Directors have also supported the authorities’ actions to bolster financial system stability and reduce vulnerabilities by intensifying supervisory oversight, tightening prudential regulations, and lifting bank capitalization requirements.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; FDI inflow; Montenegro; authority; deposit; credit growth; Montenegrin authorities; parent bank; response to the financial crisis; Commercial banks; Credit; Government finance statistics; Foreign direct investment; Global; Europe