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Europe > Montenegro

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Montenegro: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Montenegro
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation discusses that the Montenegrin economy grew robustly by 6 percent in 2023 as consumption remained strong, tourism revenues exceeded pre-pandemic levels, and the influx of relatively affluent Russian and Ukrainian nationals due to Russia’s war in Ukraine contributed to growth. Growth is expected to moderate to 3.7 percent in 2024 and ease further to about 3 percent over the medium term. While system-wide indicators of financial stability are healthy, the Central Bank Governor needs to remain vigilant regarding lingering pockets of vulnerability. In order to better inform policy judgements, trends in domestic advantage, as well as the banking sector’s growing exposure to foreign securities need to be closely monitored. Diversification both within and away from the tourism sector can help decrease the vulnerability of the economy to shocks. A more conducive environment for a small and medium enterprises sector would enable it to benefit from the presence of skilled migrants in the country.
Keywords:
production GDP estimate; EU integration; economic growth prospects; Policy discussion; CBM balance sheet; European Union initiative; Fiscal stance; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Europe; Global
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Surviving Low Interest Rates Central Banks in Kosovo and Other Western Balkan Countries: Republic of Kosovo
Mr. Si Guo
Interest income from foreign reserves is one of the main revenue sources for most emerging market central banks. For central banks in the Western Balkan region, the low global interest rates during 2008–2021 negatively affected their revenues, and the impact was more pronounced for central banks in Kosovo, Montenegro, and Bosnia and Herzegovina because they cannot use seigniorage to finance their operations. This paper explores how these central banks coped with the long period of low-interest rates. The main finding is that the decline in interest income from foreign reserves was partially compensated by higher fees, commissions, and other regulatory revenues.
Keywords:
Central bank; Low interest rates; Kosovo; Montenegro; Bosinia; Herzegovina; interest income; central banks in Kosovo; emerging market central banks; rising interest rates; personnel cost-to-GDP ratio; Income; International reserves; Central bank rates; Government securities; Exchange rate arrangements; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Kosovo: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on challenges and opportunities in Kosovo’s electricity sector. Energy market pressures in Europe are likely to continue throughout 2023. Higher energy prices represent a heavy blow for Kosovo’s current account. The tariff-setting framework is broadly sound, but the increase in European electricity prices has led to challenges. Higher European electricity prices have stressed the sector’s flows, creating liquidity choke points. Higher European electricity prices and lower domestic electricity supply may result is significant stress for Kosovo’s energy sector and budget. In the short term, more efficient use of electricity should reduce demand and contribute to balance the system in 2023. In the medium term, boosting energy efficiency and diversification away from lignite is priority. To that end, creating a fund for the renewal and expansion of domestic electricity generation capacity in green technologies could be explored. Starting to explore carbon pricing would strengthen price signals and result in more efficient demand and less carbon intensity.
Keywords:
tax revenue growth; policy implication; Electricity supply chain; central banks in Kosovo; electricity sector; Electricity; Income; Natural gas sector; Tax administration core functions; Europe; Global
Cover Negative Euro Area Interest Rates and Spillovers on Western Balkan Central Bank Policies and Instruments
Negative Euro Area Interest Rates and Spillovers on Western Balkan Central Bank Policies and Instruments
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

Proceedings of a conference co-hosted by the Bank of Albania and the International Monetary Fund in May 2017.

Keywords:
SEM; interest rate; euro; central bank; rate; bank; interest rate differential; interest rate environment; ECB monetary policy; FX reserve; risk-taking channel; Currencies; Negative interest rates; Financial sector stability; Exchange rates; Central bank policy rate; Global; Europe; Western Europe; Eastern Europe; Baltics; ECB monetary policy implementation framework; International reserves
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Montenegro: 2015 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Montenegro
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This report highlights the recent economic developments and outlook and risks related to the Montenegro’s economy. It also discusses policies which need to be implemented to boost growth. Montenegro’s economy has rebounded in the past year, and strong growth looks set to continue in 2016, at slightly more than 4 percent. Although the government’s growth strategy can bring substantial gains, it also carries sizable risks, notably to the public finances. The authorities have taken various policy measures to (1) contain fiscal sustainability risks, (2) sustainably revitalize credit conditions, (3) safeguard financial sector stability, and (4) boost competitiveness and economic flexibility.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; asset; production GDP estimate; asset quality; consumer price index; Montenegro; article IV staff; growth strategy; Montenegro's economy; Montenegro authorities; insurance oversight framework; assessment of the resilience; Credit; Public sector wages; Global
Cover Regional Economic Issues, April 2015, Europe
Regional Economic Issues, April 2015, Europe
The Western Balkans: 15 Years of Economic Transition
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Abstract

This report analyses the main economic developments and achievements in the Western Balkan countries, and lays out the key macroeconomic policy challenges for the future.

Keywords:
REO; western Balkan countries; Balkans; country; economy; economic growth; IMF staff estimate; foreign exchange; fiscal policy; IMF assistance; Balkan economy; private sector; Credit; Labor markets; Capital inflows; Credit booms; Inflation; Global; Europe; Baltics
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Montenegro: 2011 Article IV Consultation-Staff Report; Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Montenegro
International Monetary Fund
Since its independence in 2006, Montenegro has experienced an economic and financial roller coaster ride. The baseline is predicated on continued improvements in cost competitiveness and productivity-raising foreign direct investment (FDI). Avoiding a relapse into recession will thus require strengthening the health of the banking system and removing impediments to restructuring the economy. Montenegro’s attractiveness to investors will depend on reducing macroeconomic and structural vulnerabilities. The business environment needs to be further improved. Redressing solvency issues and improving liquidity were jointly seen as priority tasks.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; staff recommendation; authority; staff; authorities of Montenegro; policy effort; swift response; fund team; Commercial banks; Income; Credit; Personal income; Government finance statistics; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Albania: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
Inflation in Southeastern European (SEE) countries has been comparable with euro area inflation, partly owing to on the one hand, high initial price levels. On the other hand, the exchange rate regime is of paramount importance, including the inflation-targeting regime pursued in Albania. The analysis also explores additional heterogeneity between SEE and other regions. Two fiscal rules—a debt rule and an expenditure rule with a debt brake—are discussed in the context of Albania’s current economic outlook. Both rules will contribute toward enhancing fiscal sustainability in Albania.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; expenditure rule; rule; debt rule; SEE region; price level index; SEE country; GDP projection; excl. Serbia; Inflation; Fiscal rules; Exchange rate arrangements; Eastern Europe; Middle East; North Africa; Central Asia; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Montenegro: 2010 Article IV Consultation-Staff Report; Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Montenegro.
International Monetary Fund
This 2010 Article IV Consultation highlights that Montenegro has been hard hit by the global financial crisis. Contagion and concerns about the robustness of the banking system have triggered large deposit withdrawals and a credit crunch. Moreover, the unwinding of the real estate boom has generated strong negative wealth effects that depressed demand. The authorities have taken wide-ranging measures to stabilize the financial system and rekindle lending activity. Foreign parents have also stepped in with substantial liquidity infusion.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; deficit; authority; mall; authorities of Montenegro; priced government service; IMF staff estimate; blanket deposit guarantee measure; further labor market reform; state guarantee; deposit withdrawal; Credit; Wages; Government finance statistics; Monetary statistics; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Montenegro: 2008 Article IV Consultation: Staff Report; Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Montenegro
International Monetary Fund
This 2008 Article IV Consultation highlights that Montenegro has made significant progress in overhauling its economy. The authorities have taken several welcomed steps to help strengthen financial sector stability. Executive Directors have welcomed the structural reforms implemented over the past few years and financial integration that have helped Montenegro attract substantial foreign direct investment and generate rapid growth with moderate inflation. Directors have also supported the authorities’ actions to bolster financial system stability and reduce vulnerabilities by intensifying supervisory oversight, tightening prudential regulations, and lifting bank capitalization requirements.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; FDI inflow; Montenegro; authority; deposit; credit growth; Montenegrin authorities; parent bank; response to the financial crisis; Commercial banks; Credit; Government finance statistics; Foreign direct investment; Global; Europe