Europe > Montenegro

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International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The COVID-19 pandemic will hit Montenegro hard, as tourism is a key industry. Fiscal space has eroded in recent years due to large public capital outlays, and the COVID-19 crisis is creating new budgetary strains as health spending and other expenditures rise, while the economic contraction lowers revenues.
International Monetary Fund
This 2010 Article IV Consultation highlights that the authorities’ adjustment program has contributed to limiting the fallout of the global crisis on Serbia. Although the output slump has been limited relative to regional peers, the decline in domestic demand has been significant, resulting in a strong external adjustment. The outlook for 2010 points to a slow but balanced recovery. The pickup in growth will likely be moderate, reflecting slow trading-partner recovery, protracted corporate deleveraging, nominal freezes in public wages and pensions, and lagging labor market adjustment.
International Monetary Fund
Failed corporate structures lie at the heart of Serbia’s economic difficulties. But the government emphasized instead the need for public investment and labor tax cuts. Capital inflows pose additional challenges. External concerns leave little room to fiscal maneuver. This puts the focus on public expenditure reform. Recent changes in monetary arrangements are appropriate. These steps would best be taken further—toward inflation targeting. However, the envisaged fiscal relaxation calls much of this into question. Serbia has made significant progress in recent years.
International Monetary Fund
This paper discusses Serbia and Montenegro’s Sixth Review Under the Extended Arrangement, Financing Assurances Review, Request for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, and Proposed Post-Program Monitoring. Program implementation since the fifth review has been mixed, delaying the conclusion of the sixth and final review. Growth in 2005 reflected strong net exports, with an increasing contribution of domestic demand after mid-year. The slow structural transformation of the economy remains a major constraint on potential growth and stabilization.
International Monetary Fund
This 2005 Article IV Consultation highlights that macroeconomic imbalances in Serbia and Montenegro widened in 2004, putting at risk some of the impressive earlier achievements. Growth, about 5 percent in nonagriculture since 2002, has been fueled by a surge in domestic demand. Lack of competitive domestic production has led to increased imports and a widening current account deficit. The main policy challenge is to maintain macroeconomic stability while accelerating structural reform. Fiscal policy needs to be tightened substantially, and its flexibility increased by reducing the large share of nondiscretionary spending.
International Monetary Fund
The Fourth Review Under the Extended Arrangement, Financing Assurances Review, and Request for Waiver of Performance Criteria for Serbia and Montenegro are discussed. The agreed tighter fiscal, monetary, and incomes policies should cool off wage and credit growth, which are driving the demand for imports. The bold resumption of structural reforms should over time help increase exports, which remain exceptionally low in reference to GDP. The fragile political situation could affect the ability of the reformist minority government to press ahead with bold reforms.
International Monetary Fund
Economic performance in 2002 was generally favorable with good policy implementation, but considerable risks remain. Structural reforms have fallen behind program expectations, but the delays are being addressed. The discussions highlighted the need for prudent policies and strengthening of structural reforms. The structural reforms will focus on tax administration and expenditure management, banking supervision and resolution, and privatization. Monetary and exchange rate policies in Serbia should continue to balance the inflation and external objectives. Serbia and Montenegro's performance under the Extended Arrangement has remained good.