Europe > Montenegro

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International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that Montenegro’s recovery from the collapse of the lending boom in 2008 has been slowed by the debt overhang that remains in the private sector. Output contracted in 2012 because of unusually severe winter weather early in the year, as well as a sharp decline in aluminum production as the financial position of the troubled aluminum company (KAP) continued to worsen. Activity picked up in early 2013 as more favorable weather conditions resulted in a sharp increase in hydro-based electricity production. A sustained, multi-year fiscal consolidation effort is needed to reduce the public debt burden to an appropriately low level in the medium term.
International Monetary Fund
Failed corporate structures lie at the heart of Serbia’s economic difficulties. But the government emphasized instead the need for public investment and labor tax cuts. Capital inflows pose additional challenges. External concerns leave little room to fiscal maneuver. This puts the focus on public expenditure reform. Recent changes in monetary arrangements are appropriate. These steps would best be taken further—toward inflation targeting. However, the envisaged fiscal relaxation calls much of this into question. Serbia has made significant progress in recent years.
International Monetary Fund
This 2005 Article IV Consultation highlights that macroeconomic imbalances in Serbia and Montenegro widened in 2004, putting at risk some of the impressive earlier achievements. Growth, about 5 percent in nonagriculture since 2002, has been fueled by a surge in domestic demand. Lack of competitive domestic production has led to increased imports and a widening current account deficit. The main policy challenge is to maintain macroeconomic stability while accelerating structural reform. Fiscal policy needs to be tightened substantially, and its flexibility increased by reducing the large share of nondiscretionary spending.
International Monetary Fund
This paper examines Serbia and Montenegro’s Third Review Under the Extended Arrangement and Requests for Waiver of Performance Criterion. Serbia and Montenegro’s recent economic performance has been mixed, combining excellent progress in some areas with an uncomfortably large current account deficit and modest growth in output and exports from low levels. The envisaged tightening of fiscal policy is broadly appropriate—albeit overly reliant on revenue measures. Achieving the fiscal deficit target will help narrow the current account deficit and place the fiscal and external accounts on sustainable paths.
International Monetary Fund
Economic performance in 2002 was generally favorable with good policy implementation, but considerable risks remain. Structural reforms have fallen behind program expectations, but the delays are being addressed. The discussions highlighted the need for prudent policies and strengthening of structural reforms. The structural reforms will focus on tax administration and expenditure management, banking supervision and resolution, and privatization. Monetary and exchange rate policies in Serbia should continue to balance the inflation and external objectives. Serbia and Montenegro's performance under the Extended Arrangement has remained good.
International Monetary Fund
This paper assesses Serbia and Montenegro’s First Review Under the Extended Arrangement (EA). Serbia and Montenegro’s economic and policy performance has remained good under the current EA, but daunting challenges lie ahead. Macroeconomic policies need to be carefully calibrated to address potential risks to macroeconomic and financial instability, while the task of economic restructuring will be increasingly difficult. The IMF staff welcomes the authorities’ commitment to address delays in the adoption of reform legislation that led to nonobservance of some structural benchmarks and notes the need to avoid new slippages.