Europe > Montenegro

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Francesco Spadafora
,
Mr. Emidio Cocozza
, and
Mr. Andrea Colabella
This paper analyzes the impact of the global crisis on six South-Eastern European countries. The main objective is to compare macro-financial conditions and policies in the run-up to the crisis as well as to compare the policy responses to it, so as to highlight, inter alia, possible country-specific constraints. While sharing a common pre-crisis pattern of strong capital inflows and robust growth, a key difference in the conduct of macroeconomicpolicies is that some countries adopted expansionary (and procyclical) fiscal policies. These moves exacerbated external vulnerabilities and compromised the ability to discretionarily use the fiscal instrument in acountercyclical fashion.
International Monetary Fund
Failed corporate structures lie at the heart of Serbia’s economic difficulties. But the government emphasized instead the need for public investment and labor tax cuts. Capital inflows pose additional challenges. External concerns leave little room to fiscal maneuver. This puts the focus on public expenditure reform. Recent changes in monetary arrangements are appropriate. These steps would best be taken further—toward inflation targeting. However, the envisaged fiscal relaxation calls much of this into question. Serbia has made significant progress in recent years.
International Monetary Fund
This paper discusses Serbia and Montenegro’s Sixth Review Under the Extended Arrangement, Financing Assurances Review, Request for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, and Proposed Post-Program Monitoring. Program implementation since the fifth review has been mixed, delaying the conclusion of the sixth and final review. Growth in 2005 reflected strong net exports, with an increasing contribution of domestic demand after mid-year. The slow structural transformation of the economy remains a major constraint on potential growth and stabilization.
International Monetary Fund
This 2005 Article IV Consultation highlights that macroeconomic imbalances in Serbia and Montenegro widened in 2004, putting at risk some of the impressive earlier achievements. Growth, about 5 percent in nonagriculture since 2002, has been fueled by a surge in domestic demand. Lack of competitive domestic production has led to increased imports and a widening current account deficit. The main policy challenge is to maintain macroeconomic stability while accelerating structural reform. Fiscal policy needs to be tightened substantially, and its flexibility increased by reducing the large share of nondiscretionary spending.