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Europe > Montenegro

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Montenegro: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Montenegro
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation discusses that the Montenegrin economy grew robustly by 6 percent in 2023 as consumption remained strong, tourism revenues exceeded pre-pandemic levels, and the influx of relatively affluent Russian and Ukrainian nationals due to Russia’s war in Ukraine contributed to growth. Growth is expected to moderate to 3.7 percent in 2024 and ease further to about 3 percent over the medium term. While system-wide indicators of financial stability are healthy, the Central Bank Governor needs to remain vigilant regarding lingering pockets of vulnerability. In order to better inform policy judgements, trends in domestic advantage, as well as the banking sector’s growing exposure to foreign securities need to be closely monitored. Diversification both within and away from the tourism sector can help decrease the vulnerability of the economy to shocks. A more conducive environment for a small and medium enterprises sector would enable it to benefit from the presence of skilled migrants in the country.
Keywords:
production GDP estimate; EU integration; economic growth prospects; Policy discussion; CBM balance sheet; European Union initiative; Fiscal stance; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Europe; Global
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Surviving Low Interest Rates Central Banks in Kosovo and Other Western Balkan Countries: Republic of Kosovo
Mr. Si Guo
Interest income from foreign reserves is one of the main revenue sources for most emerging market central banks. For central banks in the Western Balkan region, the low global interest rates during 2008–2021 negatively affected their revenues, and the impact was more pronounced for central banks in Kosovo, Montenegro, and Bosnia and Herzegovina because they cannot use seigniorage to finance their operations. This paper explores how these central banks coped with the long period of low-interest rates. The main finding is that the decline in interest income from foreign reserves was partially compensated by higher fees, commissions, and other regulatory revenues.
Keywords:
Central bank; Low interest rates; Kosovo; Montenegro; Bosinia; Herzegovina; interest income; central banks in Kosovo; emerging market central banks; rising interest rates; personnel cost-to-GDP ratio; Income; International reserves; Central bank rates; Government securities; Exchange rate arrangements; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Kosovo: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on challenges and opportunities in Kosovo’s electricity sector. Energy market pressures in Europe are likely to continue throughout 2023. Higher energy prices represent a heavy blow for Kosovo’s current account. The tariff-setting framework is broadly sound, but the increase in European electricity prices has led to challenges. Higher European electricity prices have stressed the sector’s flows, creating liquidity choke points. Higher European electricity prices and lower domestic electricity supply may result is significant stress for Kosovo’s energy sector and budget. In the short term, more efficient use of electricity should reduce demand and contribute to balance the system in 2023. In the medium term, boosting energy efficiency and diversification away from lignite is priority. To that end, creating a fund for the renewal and expansion of domestic electricity generation capacity in green technologies could be explored. Starting to explore carbon pricing would strengthen price signals and result in more efficient demand and less carbon intensity.
Keywords:
tax revenue growth; policy implication; Electricity supply chain; central banks in Kosovo; electricity sector; Electricity; Income; Natural gas sector; Tax administration core functions; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Montenegro: Technical Assistance Report - Public Investment Management Assessment
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Public investment is expected to play a significant role in the post-pandemic economic recovery in Montenegro. Due to the importance of the tourism sector, the pandemic has had a deep economic impact. In addition, as government debt already exceeds one hundred percent of GDP, fiscal space to increase public investment is limited. Nevertheless, the completion of the first phase of the Bar-Boljare Highway (BBH), by the end of 2021, should free up public resources within the budget constraint, that could be used for public investments. In this context, a strengthened public investment management (PIM) framework would contribute to maximize its impact on economic growth.
Keywords:
IMF's Fiscal Affairs Department; management framework; I. Public investment; efficiency frontier; staff team of the International Monetary Fund; staff from the IMF's Fiscal Affairs Department; Budget planning and preparation; Capital budget; Public investment spending; Capital spending; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Montenegro: Technical Assistance Report-External Sector Statistics
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s Statistics Department (STA) conducted a technical assistance (TA) mission to the Central Bank of Montenegro (CBM) for the compilation of external sector statistics (ESS) during April 28–May 13, 2021. The mission was funded by Eurostat to meet the European Union (EU)’s acquis1 from the ESS perspective. The mission focused on the compilation of quarterly international investment position (IIP),2 and assisted the CBM in preparing the Reserves Data Template (RDT) as well as in recording of financial intermediary services indirectly measured (FISIM) in balance of payments statistics.
Keywords:
BIS LBS; CBM data; IMF's Statistics Department; CBM staff; data template; International investment position; Balance of payments statistics; Foreign direct investment; External sector statistics
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Montenegro: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Montenegro
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
COVID-19 hit the economy hard, but a strong recovery is underway. Public debt, already elevated before the pandemic, has increased further. The government has embarked on a reform program ‘Europe Now’, which aims to arrest outward migration through a sharp minimum wage increase, labor tax wedge reduction, and the introduction of a progressive tax code. The financial sector appears to have withstood the COVID-19 shock well.
Keywords:
production GDP estimate; staff growth estimate; authorities' baseline scenario; Montenegrin authority; taxation regime; Government debt management; Labor taxes; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of North Macedonia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
growth acceleration plan; investment trend; deviation from baseline; IMF government finance statistics database; investment plan; Public investment spending; Value-added tax; Infrastructure; Global
Cover Negative Euro Area Interest Rates and Spillovers on Western Balkan Central Bank Policies and Instruments
Negative Euro Area Interest Rates and Spillovers on Western Balkan Central Bank Policies and Instruments
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

Proceedings of a conference co-hosted by the Bank of Albania and the International Monetary Fund in May 2017.

Keywords:
SEM; interest rate; euro; central bank; rate; bank; interest rate differential; interest rate environment; ECB monetary policy; FX reserve; risk-taking channel; Currencies; Negative interest rates; Financial sector stability; Exchange rates; Central bank policy rate; Global; Europe; Western Europe; Eastern Europe; Baltics; ECB monetary policy implementation framework; International reserves
Cover IMF Staff Papers
IMF Staff papers, Volume 46 No. 3
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
This paper examines determinants and leading indicators of banking crises. The paper examines episodes of banking system distress and crisis in a large sample of countries to identify which macroeconomic and financial variables can be useful leading indicators. The best warning signs of the recent Asian crises were proxies for the vulnerability of the banking and corporate sector. Full-blown banking crises are shown to be associated more with external developments, and domestic variables are the main leading indicators of severe but contained banking distress.
Keywords:
SP; central bank; Uzbekistan; inflation target; income elasticity; exchange rate volatility; export demand equation; Uzbek growth puzzle; financing requirement; Uzbek experience; Exchange rates; Inflation targeting; Inflation; Commercial banks; Exports; Baltics; Western Europe; East Asia; Africa