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Europe > Montenegro

You are looking at 1 - 7 of 7 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Price Level; Inflation; Deflation x
  • Foreign exchange x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Inflation Dynamics in the Western Balkans
Gohar Minasyan
,
Ezgi O. Ozturk
,
Magali Pinat
,
Mengxue Wang
, and
Zeju Zhu
After trailing Euro Area inflation closely in the recent past, inflation in the Western Balkans has accelerated faster since early 2022 on the back of the shocks to global commodity prices, strong recovery from the pandemic, and lingering supply bottlenecks. This paper employs two complementary empirical approaches of an augmented Phillips curve and structural VAR, adapting them to the data availability and country specificities of the Western Balkans, to analyze the inflation dynamics in the region. It finds that international food prices affect not only headline but also core inflation as well as inflation expectations. Further, inflation in the Western Balkans is not just determined by foreign shocks, and domestic factors, aggregate demand shocks in particular, have a significant impact on inflation. These findings imply a possible role for policies to temporarily limit an immediate and complete pass-through of international to domestic food prices while also stressing the importance of an appropriate domestic macroeconomic policy mix to keep inflation expectations anchored and safeguard credibility in the face of high inflation persistence.
Keywords:
Inflation; Western Balkans; international food price shocks; commodity price shocks; Phillips curve; panel data; structural VAR; inflation expectation; inflation dynamics; inflations determinant; inflation development; inflation in the Western Balkans; Food prices; Energy prices; Nominal effective exchange rate; Global; Europe
Cover Regional Economic Issues, April 2015, Europe
Regional Economic Issues, April 2015, Europe
The Western Balkans: 15 Years of Economic Transition
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Abstract

This report analyses the main economic developments and achievements in the Western Balkan countries, and lays out the key macroeconomic policy challenges for the future.

Keywords:
REO; western Balkan countries; Balkans; country; economy; economic growth; IMF staff estimate; foreign exchange; fiscal policy; IMF assistance; Balkan economy; private sector; Credit; Labor markets; Capital inflows; Credit booms; Inflation; Global; Europe; Baltics
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Albania: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
Inflation in Southeastern European (SEE) countries has been comparable with euro area inflation, partly owing to on the one hand, high initial price levels. On the other hand, the exchange rate regime is of paramount importance, including the inflation-targeting regime pursued in Albania. The analysis also explores additional heterogeneity between SEE and other regions. Two fiscal rules—a debt rule and an expenditure rule with a debt brake—are discussed in the context of Albania’s current economic outlook. Both rules will contribute toward enhancing fiscal sustainability in Albania.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; expenditure rule; rule; debt rule; SEE region; price level index; SEE country; GDP projection; excl. Serbia; Inflation; Fiscal rules; Exchange rate arrangements; Eastern Europe; Middle East; North Africa; Central Asia; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Serbia: Staff Report for the 2006 Article IV Consultation and Post–Program Monitoring Discussions
International Monetary Fund
Failed corporate structures lie at the heart of Serbia’s economic difficulties. But the government emphasized instead the need for public investment and labor tax cuts. Capital inflows pose additional challenges. External concerns leave little room to fiscal maneuver. This puts the focus on public expenditure reform. Recent changes in monetary arrangements are appropriate. These steps would best be taken further—toward inflation targeting. However, the envisaged fiscal relaxation calls much of this into question. Serbia has made significant progress in recent years.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; GDP; current account; disinflation; deficit; inflation expectation; banking privatization; fund staff projection; privatization agency; Inflation; Current account balance; Fiscal stance; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Federal Republic of Yugoslavia: 2002 Article IV Consultation, Third Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement, and Request for an Extended Arrangement—Staff Report; Staff Supplement; Public Information Notice and Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia
International Monetary Fund
This paper assesses the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia’s (FRY) 2002 Article IV Consultation, Third Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA), and a Request for an Extended Arrangement. Despite the impressive achievements since late 2000, when FRY succeeded to membership in the IMF, the challenges facing the authorities remain daunting. The FRY authorities’ medium-term program of stabilization sets a good basis for achieving sustainable growth and a viable external position, and deserves the continued support of the IMF through completion of the third review under the current SBA and approval of the proposed extended arrangement.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Yugoslavia; overstaffed enterprise sector; staff; state; bank reform; authorities of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia; Montenegrin authorities; FRY authorities; exchange system of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia; Commercial banks; Debt service; Exchange rates; Global
Cover IMF Staff Papers
IMF Staff papers, Volume 46 No. 3
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
This paper examines determinants and leading indicators of banking crises. The paper examines episodes of banking system distress and crisis in a large sample of countries to identify which macroeconomic and financial variables can be useful leading indicators. The best warning signs of the recent Asian crises were proxies for the vulnerability of the banking and corporate sector. Full-blown banking crises are shown to be associated more with external developments, and domestic variables are the main leading indicators of severe but contained banking distress.
Keywords:
SP; central bank; Uzbekistan; inflation target; income elasticity; exchange rate volatility; export demand equation; Uzbek growth puzzle; financing requirement; Uzbek experience; Exchange rates; Inflation targeting; Inflation; Commercial banks; Exports; Baltics; Western Europe; East Asia; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Slovenia: Recent Economic Developments
International Monetary Fund
This paper reviews economic developments in Slovenia during 1990–96. Slovenia experienced its first positive real GDP growth in 1993. Real GDP grew by 1.3 percent. This modest recovery began under the impetus of buoyant domestic demand, which grew by 8¼ percent; real foreign demand contracted by 6½ percent owing to a recession in Western markets. Despite the growth in real aggregate demand by more than 2 percent, the output response was dampened as domestic demand growth spilled primarily into a boom in consumer goods imports.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; gross domestic product; exchange rate; investment funds; foreign exchange; rate of return; aggregate demand; Wages; Exchange rates; Income; Inflation; Central and Eastern Europe