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Europe > Montenegro

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of North Macedonia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
growth acceleration plan; investment trend; deviation from baseline; IMF government finance statistics database; investment plan; Public investment spending; Value-added tax; Infrastructure; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Montenegro: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes the long-term growth prospects and the output gap in Montenegro. Historical growth in Montenegro was driven mostly by capital with some contribution from labor, while total factor productivity (TFP) contributed negatively. Going forward, in the baseline growth accounting framework with no reforms, employment will likely have a slightly negative contribution because of demographic dynamics unless both labor force participation and unemployment improve significantly. The highway project will contribute to capital accumulation in the near term, but the contribution from capital accumulation will likely fall despite relatively high investment ratios. Based on historical performance, the contribution from TFP is likely limited and constitutes the main bottleneck for long-term growth prospects in the no-reform baseline.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; bank; expenditure; minimum wage; fiscal policy; TFP growth; IMF staff estimate; child care; output gap estimate; trend revenue; TFP assumption; expenditure elasticity; bank emergency liquidity assistance; highway spending; Total factor productivity; Output gap; Labor markets; Fiscal stance; Global; Eastern Europe; Southern Europe; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Montenegro: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that Montenegro’s economy is growing strongly, boosted by the implementation of large investment projects, including the construction of the Bar-Boljare highway. Growth should continue over the medium term, albeit at a more moderate pace as highway construction ends. The IMF staff projects the economy to expand by 3 percent in 2018 and 2.5 percent in 2019, with fiscal consolidation also acting as a moderate drag on growth. Although the implementation of large publicly financed infrastructure projects has added to economic growth, the accompanying use of fiscal resources has contributed to a large increase in government debt. Economic growth should remain strong in 2018, notwithstanding fiscal consolidation, and maintain momentum over the medium term.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; government; Montenegro; debt; GDP; surplus; CPI indexation; IMF TA; pension sustainability; government finances; Montenegrin authorities; government debt; public-sector workforce; Fiscal consolidation; Fiscal stance; Capital spending; Global
Cover Regional Economic Issues, April 2015, Europe
Regional Economic Issues, April 2015, Europe
The Western Balkans: 15 Years of Economic Transition
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Abstract

This report analyses the main economic developments and achievements in the Western Balkan countries, and lays out the key macroeconomic policy challenges for the future.

Keywords:
REO; western Balkan countries; Balkans; country; economy; economic growth; IMF staff estimate; foreign exchange; fiscal policy; IMF assistance; Balkan economy; private sector; Credit; Labor markets; Capital inflows; Credit booms; Inflation; Global; Europe; Baltics
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Montenegro: Staff Report for the 2012 Article IV Consultation
International Monetary Fund
This 2012 Article IV Consultation highlights that three years after the sudden end of Montenegro’s boom, there has been considerable progress toward recovery. Fiscal imbalances have proved difficult to rein in, reflecting a large fall in revenue after the collapse of the boom. Executive Directors have commended the authorities’ efforts to stabilize the economy, and welcomed the progress made since the financial crisis. Directors have also recognized the sizable public expenditure adjustment over the past few years, but underscored the need for further high-quality deficit reducing measures.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; commercial bank loan; staff appraisal; IMF staff representative; financing risk; deficit; privatization contract; Loan guarantees; Labor markets; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Montenegro: 2011 Article IV Consultation-Staff Report; Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Montenegro
International Monetary Fund
Since its independence in 2006, Montenegro has experienced an economic and financial roller coaster ride. The baseline is predicated on continued improvements in cost competitiveness and productivity-raising foreign direct investment (FDI). Avoiding a relapse into recession will thus require strengthening the health of the banking system and removing impediments to restructuring the economy. Montenegro’s attractiveness to investors will depend on reducing macroeconomic and structural vulnerabilities. The business environment needs to be further improved. Redressing solvency issues and improving liquidity were jointly seen as priority tasks.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; staff recommendation; authority; staff; authorities of Montenegro; policy effort; swift response; fund team; Commercial banks; Income; Credit; Personal income; Government finance statistics; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Montenegro: 2010 Article IV Consultation-Staff Report; Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Montenegro.
International Monetary Fund
This 2010 Article IV Consultation highlights that Montenegro has been hard hit by the global financial crisis. Contagion and concerns about the robustness of the banking system have triggered large deposit withdrawals and a credit crunch. Moreover, the unwinding of the real estate boom has generated strong negative wealth effects that depressed demand. The authorities have taken wide-ranging measures to stabilize the financial system and rekindle lending activity. Foreign parents have also stepped in with substantial liquidity infusion.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; deficit; authority; mall; authorities of Montenegro; priced government service; IMF staff estimate; blanket deposit guarantee measure; further labor market reform; state guarantee; deposit withdrawal; Credit; Wages; Government finance statistics; Monetary statistics; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Serbia and Montenegro: Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper—Progress Reports
International Monetary Fund
This paper discusses the First Progress Report on the implementation of the Poverty Reduction Strategy (PRS) in Serbia. The Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) for Serbia and its implementation complement the efforts of Serbia in the European Union integration process. The PRSP also includes a focus on the need to reform the public administration with the goal of increasing the efficiency and transparency of policy coordination and governance in implementing the programmatic documents of the Republic of Serbia as well as in improving the way of governing the overall and public sector policies.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; financial support; gross domestic product; absolute poverty; private sector; job creation; economic growth; poverty rate; employment agency; Poverty reduction strategy; Poverty reduction and development; Eastern Europe; Southern Europe; Western Europe; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Serbia and Montenegro: Fourth Review Under the Extended Arrangement (EA), Financing Assurances Review, Request for Waivers, and Modification of an end-December 2004 Performance Criterion
International Monetary Fund
The Fourth Review Under the Extended Arrangement, Financing Assurances Review, and Request for Waiver of Performance Criteria for Serbia and Montenegro are discussed. The agreed tighter fiscal, monetary, and incomes policies should cool off wage and credit growth, which are driving the demand for imports. The bold resumption of structural reforms should over time help increase exports, which remain exceptionally low in reference to GDP. The fragile political situation could affect the ability of the reformist minority government to press ahead with bold reforms.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; prefix; lending; fiscal policy; credit growth; staff appraisal; consumer lending; expenditure side; widening current account deficit; Privatization; Wages; Eastern Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Serbia and Montenegro: Third Review Under the Extended Arrangement and Requests for Waiver of a Performance Criterion and Rephasing of Purchases
International Monetary Fund
This paper examines Serbia and Montenegro’s Third Review Under the Extended Arrangement and Requests for Waiver of Performance Criterion. Serbia and Montenegro’s recent economic performance has been mixed, combining excellent progress in some areas with an uncomfortably large current account deficit and modest growth in output and exports from low levels. The envisaged tightening of fiscal policy is broadly appropriate—albeit overly reliant on revenue measures. Achieving the fiscal deficit target will help narrow the current account deficit and place the fiscal and external accounts on sustainable paths.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; policy; inflation objective; authority; SDR; macroeconomic policy; authorities of Serbia and Montenegro; privatization revenue; executive board discussion; government in Serbia; Privatization; Commercial banks; Monetary base; Global