This report highlights the recent economic developments and outlook and risks related to the Montenegro’s economy. It also discusses policies which need to be implemented to boost growth. Montenegro’s economy has rebounded in the past year, and strong growth looks set to continue in 2016, at slightly more than 4 percent. Although the government’s growth strategy can bring substantial gains, it also carries sizable risks, notably to the public finances. The authorities have taken various policy measures to (1) contain fiscal sustainability risks, (2) sustainably revitalize credit conditions, (3) safeguard financial sector stability, and (4) boost competitiveness and economic flexibility.
The economic expansion in Montenegro is proceeding at full strength. The economy is overheating. Rapid credit growth is overstretching banks, and has contributed to ballooning asset prices. Eroding competitiveness is a concern. Management of the boom falls on fiscal policy. Tax cuts have been procyclical and potentially destabilizing. Fiscal risks need to be contained. The main focus of credit policy should be to strengthen banking sector supervision. Completing the transition to a market economy should be kept at the top of the policy agenda.