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Europe > Montenegro

You are looking at 1 - 5 of 5 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Books and Analytical Papers x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Inflation Dynamics in the Western Balkans
Gohar Minasyan
,
Ezgi O. Ozturk
,
Magali Pinat
,
Mengxue Wang
, and
Zeju Zhu
After trailing Euro Area inflation closely in the recent past, inflation in the Western Balkans has accelerated faster since early 2022 on the back of the shocks to global commodity prices, strong recovery from the pandemic, and lingering supply bottlenecks. This paper employs two complementary empirical approaches of an augmented Phillips curve and structural VAR, adapting them to the data availability and country specificities of the Western Balkans, to analyze the inflation dynamics in the region. It finds that international food prices affect not only headline but also core inflation as well as inflation expectations. Further, inflation in the Western Balkans is not just determined by foreign shocks, and domestic factors, aggregate demand shocks in particular, have a significant impact on inflation. These findings imply a possible role for policies to temporarily limit an immediate and complete pass-through of international to domestic food prices while also stressing the importance of an appropriate domestic macroeconomic policy mix to keep inflation expectations anchored and safeguard credibility in the face of high inflation persistence.
Keywords:
Inflation; Western Balkans; international food price shocks; commodity price shocks; Phillips curve; panel data; structural VAR; inflation expectation; inflation dynamics; inflations determinant; inflation development; inflation in the Western Balkans; Food prices; Energy prices; Nominal effective exchange rate; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Labor Taxation in the Western Balkan: Looking Back and Forward
Mr. Alain Jousten
,
Mario Mansour
,
Irena Jankulov Suljagic
, and
Charles Vellutini
This paper examines how labor taxation (personal income taxes and social security contributions) in the Western Balkan contributes to labor market outcomes such as high informality and a significant gender gap in participation rates. We find that limited progressivity combined with high tax wedge on low incomes poses a major twin equity-efficiency challenge in the region, resulting in low redistributive capacity and inadequate incentives to enter the job market. Policy implications are discussed with a view to alleviating the excessively high tax wedges on low incomes, while improving progressivity of income taxation.
Keywords:
Western Balkan; labor taxation; labor tax wedge; personal income tax; corporate income tax; social security contributions; income taxation; SSC reduction; employer SSCs; Labor taxes; Tax wedge; Wages; Labor markets; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Montenegro: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Financial Crisis Preparedness and Management-Technical Note
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This paper provides assessment of the crisis preparedness and management framework of Montenegro. The banking sector dominates the financial system and accounts for about 90 percent of financial system assets, equivalent to about 93 percent of GDP as of June 2015. In 2010 the Financial Stability Council (FSC) was established to maintain financial system stability and avoid financial distress. FSC members are the Central Bank of Montenegro (CBM) governor (chair), the minister of finance, the president of the Insurance Supervision Agency Council, and the Securities and Exchange Commission president. The CBM functions as the de facto resolution authority for banks.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; CBM Law; bank bankruptcy law; CBM governor; CBM liquidity loan; resolution fund; CBM contingency plan; camel rating; liquidity contingency plans; CBM order; CBM fund; bank shareholder; Bank resolution; Bank resolution framework; Crisis management; Lender of last resort; Contingency planning; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Montenegro: Financial System Stability Assessment
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This paper focuses on the important issues of Montenegro economy which are as follows: microfinancial setting, financial system resilience, financial oversight, resolution of nonperforming loans, and financial safety nets. Montenegro is still dealing with the aftermath of the collapse of the lending boom in 2008. Economic momentum has accelerated in 2015, but there are numerous downside risks. System-wide solvency and liquidity indicators appear broadly sound, but significant pockets of vulnerabilities exist among domestically owned banks. Decisive action to deal with weak banks is critical for preserving financial stability. While the legal, regulatory, and supervisory frameworks for banking and insurance sector have markedly improved since 2006 Financial Sector Assessment Program, further progress is required.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; bank; asset; bridge bank; funding; resolution planning; camel rating; liquidity contingency plans; CBM payment system; CBM-managed payment; CBM oversight function; relationship management; camel-rated bank; a number of bank; private sector; excessive risk aversion; bank relationship management; Nonperforming loans; Commercial banks; Liquidity; Credit; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Federal Republic of Yugoslavia: First Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Request for a Waiver
International Monetary Fund
The government has implemented the IMF-supported program with impressive firmness and has moved quickly to adopt corrective measures as needed to ensure that it stays on track. Much has been accomplished in stabilization and structural reform within a short period. Achievement of the fiscal objectives will be challenging, in both Serbia and Montenegro. Continued progress in structural reform is important. The Federal Republic of Yugoslavia needs the continued support of donors and creditors. The World Bank is closely involved in the reconstruction efforts.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; FRY authorities; stand-by credit; fry economy; Yugoslavia; SDR; executive board discussion; inflation pressure; Currencies; Commercial banks