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Europe > Montenegro

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Montenegro: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Montenegro
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation discusses that the Montenegrin economy grew robustly by 6 percent in 2023 as consumption remained strong, tourism revenues exceeded pre-pandemic levels, and the influx of relatively affluent Russian and Ukrainian nationals due to Russia’s war in Ukraine contributed to growth. Growth is expected to moderate to 3.7 percent in 2024 and ease further to about 3 percent over the medium term. While system-wide indicators of financial stability are healthy, the Central Bank Governor needs to remain vigilant regarding lingering pockets of vulnerability. In order to better inform policy judgements, trends in domestic advantage, as well as the banking sector’s growing exposure to foreign securities need to be closely monitored. Diversification both within and away from the tourism sector can help decrease the vulnerability of the economy to shocks. A more conducive environment for a small and medium enterprises sector would enable it to benefit from the presence of skilled migrants in the country.
Keywords:
production GDP estimate; EU integration; economic growth prospects; Policy discussion; CBM balance sheet; European Union initiative; Fiscal stance; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Kosovo: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on challenges and opportunities in Kosovo’s electricity sector. Energy market pressures in Europe are likely to continue throughout 2023. Higher energy prices represent a heavy blow for Kosovo’s current account. The tariff-setting framework is broadly sound, but the increase in European electricity prices has led to challenges. Higher European electricity prices have stressed the sector’s flows, creating liquidity choke points. Higher European electricity prices and lower domestic electricity supply may result is significant stress for Kosovo’s energy sector and budget. In the short term, more efficient use of electricity should reduce demand and contribute to balance the system in 2023. In the medium term, boosting energy efficiency and diversification away from lignite is priority. To that end, creating a fund for the renewal and expansion of domestic electricity generation capacity in green technologies could be explored. Starting to explore carbon pricing would strengthen price signals and result in more efficient demand and less carbon intensity.
Keywords:
tax revenue growth; policy implication; Electricity supply chain; central banks in Kosovo; electricity sector; Electricity; Income; Natural gas sector; Tax administration core functions; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Labor Taxation in the Western Balkan: Looking Back and Forward
Mr. Alain Jousten
,
Mario Mansour
,
Irena Jankulov Suljagic
, and
Charles Vellutini
This paper examines how labor taxation (personal income taxes and social security contributions) in the Western Balkan contributes to labor market outcomes such as high informality and a significant gender gap in participation rates. We find that limited progressivity combined with high tax wedge on low incomes poses a major twin equity-efficiency challenge in the region, resulting in low redistributive capacity and inadequate incentives to enter the job market. Policy implications are discussed with a view to alleviating the excessively high tax wedges on low incomes, while improving progressivity of income taxation.
Keywords:
Western Balkan; labor taxation; labor tax wedge; personal income tax; corporate income tax; social security contributions; income taxation; SSC reduction; employer SSCs; Labor taxes; Tax wedge; Wages; Labor markets; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Montenegro: Technical Assistance Report - Public Investment Management Assessment
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Public investment is expected to play a significant role in the post-pandemic economic recovery in Montenegro. Due to the importance of the tourism sector, the pandemic has had a deep economic impact. In addition, as government debt already exceeds one hundred percent of GDP, fiscal space to increase public investment is limited. Nevertheless, the completion of the first phase of the Bar-Boljare Highway (BBH), by the end of 2021, should free up public resources within the budget constraint, that could be used for public investments. In this context, a strengthened public investment management (PIM) framework would contribute to maximize its impact on economic growth.
Keywords:
IMF's Fiscal Affairs Department; management framework; I. Public investment; efficiency frontier; staff team of the International Monetary Fund; staff from the IMF's Fiscal Affairs Department; Budget planning and preparation; Capital budget; Public investment spending; Capital spending; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Montenegro: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Montenegro
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
COVID-19 hit the economy hard, but a strong recovery is underway. Public debt, already elevated before the pandemic, has increased further. The government has embarked on a reform program ‘Europe Now’, which aims to arrest outward migration through a sharp minimum wage increase, labor tax wedge reduction, and the introduction of a progressive tax code. The financial sector appears to have withstood the COVID-19 shock well.
Keywords:
production GDP estimate; staff growth estimate; authorities' baseline scenario; Montenegrin authority; taxation regime; Government debt management; Labor taxes; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of North Macedonia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
growth acceleration plan; investment trend; deviation from baseline; IMF government finance statistics database; investment plan; Public investment spending; Value-added tax; Infrastructure; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Kosovo: 2020 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Kosovo
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Kosovo has been hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite policy support, economic activity is estimated to have fallen 6 percent in 2020 on account of the combined effect of strict domestic containment measures and international travel restrictions. The fiscal deficit increased to 7.7 percent of GDP, given the large fall in tax revenues and the implementation of mitigation and recovery measures of 4.2 percent of GDP. The current account deficit is estimated to have increased to 7.5 percent of GDP mainly due to a large decline in diaspora-related inflows, most notably in tourism. Gross international reserves declined but remain adequate in part due to the purchase under the IMF’s Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) in April 2020 and the use of other external financing. Banks have weathered the recession well to date, and the high pre-COVID19 liquidity levels and ample capital buffers bode well for the system’s stability.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; targeted cash support; Kosovar authorities; bank asset quality; Kosovo authorities; deficit rule
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Montenegro: Request for Purchase under the Rapid Financing Instrument; Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Montenegro
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The COVID-19 pandemic will hit Montenegro hard, as tourism is a key industry. Fiscal space has eroded in recent years due to large public capital outlays, and the COVID-19 crisis is creating new budgetary strains as health spending and other expenditures rise, while the economic contraction lowers revenues.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; financing; emergency financing request; IMF lending tracker; assistance; liquidity withdrawal requirement rate; financing gap; Executive Board discussion; Fiscal stance; Capital spending; Tourism; Global; COVID-19; Financial sector
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Montenegro: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Montenegro
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2019 Article IV Consultation with Montenegro highlights that while the implementation of large publicly financed infrastructure projects has added economic growth, the accompanying use of fiscal resources has contributed to a large increase in government debt including guarantees, which reached 79 percent of gross domestic product in 2018. Despite the recent intervention in two non-systemic domestic banks, the overall banking sector exhibits improving asset quality, strong credit growth, high liquidity, and is well capitalized. Efforts to improve banking and Anti-Money Laundering/Combating the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) supervision are paramount. The emphasis should be a shift to risk-based tools for supervision in both off-site and on-site functions, and the establishment of a stronger supervisory structure within the central bank. The main priorities are reduction of the labor tax wedge and implementation of the new labor law that aims to increase labor market flexibility. Future decisions on the minimum wage should consider a broad set of indicators and require careful analyses of the impact of past increases.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; authority; debt; CBM balance sheet; development goal; MONSTAT; Montenegro; Montenegrin authorities; banking sector supervision; liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; authorities' effort; MONSTAT report; Fiscal stance; Fiscal consolidation; Capital spending; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Montenegro: Technical Assistance Report-Report on the Monetary and Financial Statistics Mission
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This Technical Assistance Report on Montenegro highlights work of the mission with the authorities which included compiling monetary data based on the IMF standardized report forms (SRF), 1SR, and SRF 2SR, for depository corporations. While the depository corporations sector currently dominates the financial system in Montenegro, the Central Bank of Montenegro (CBCG) should also ensure the availability of source data for the compilation and dissemination of a quarterly Other Financial Corporations (OFC) survey given the sector’s potential to grow. The mission found the CBCG’s current data collection framework is broadly appropriate for the compilation of monetary data in line with the MFSMCG 2016 for the depository corporations’ sector, but further work is needed for OFCs. The mission advised on the correct treatment of negative interest accruals (due to negative interest rates) to ensure that the negative accruals diminish the value of the asset.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; CBCG staff; financial system; CBCG official; CBCG's chart of accounts; CBCG management; holdings of Eurobond; holdings of government; CBCG's Directorate for Accounting; CBCG's holding; holdings of debt securities; interest receivables; CBCG's Information Technology Department; fair value; Monetary statistics; Chart of accounts; Commercial banks; Financial statements; Currencies