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Europe > Montenegro

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Labor Taxation in the Western Balkan: Looking Back and Forward
Mr. Alain Jousten
,
Mario Mansour
,
Irena Jankulov Suljagic
, and
Charles Vellutini
This paper examines how labor taxation (personal income taxes and social security contributions) in the Western Balkan contributes to labor market outcomes such as high informality and a significant gender gap in participation rates. We find that limited progressivity combined with high tax wedge on low incomes poses a major twin equity-efficiency challenge in the region, resulting in low redistributive capacity and inadequate incentives to enter the job market. Policy implications are discussed with a view to alleviating the excessively high tax wedges on low incomes, while improving progressivity of income taxation.
Keywords:
Western Balkan; labor taxation; labor tax wedge; personal income tax; corporate income tax; social security contributions; income taxation; SSC reduction; employer SSCs; Labor taxes; Tax wedge; Wages; Labor markets; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Montenegro: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes the long-term growth prospects and the output gap in Montenegro. Historical growth in Montenegro was driven mostly by capital with some contribution from labor, while total factor productivity (TFP) contributed negatively. Going forward, in the baseline growth accounting framework with no reforms, employment will likely have a slightly negative contribution because of demographic dynamics unless both labor force participation and unemployment improve significantly. The highway project will contribute to capital accumulation in the near term, but the contribution from capital accumulation will likely fall despite relatively high investment ratios. Based on historical performance, the contribution from TFP is likely limited and constitutes the main bottleneck for long-term growth prospects in the no-reform baseline.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; bank; expenditure; minimum wage; fiscal policy; TFP growth; IMF staff estimate; child care; output gap estimate; trend revenue; TFP assumption; expenditure elasticity; bank emergency liquidity assistance; highway spending; Total factor productivity; Output gap; Labor markets; Fiscal stance; Global; Eastern Europe; Southern Europe; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Montenegro: 2015 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Montenegro
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This report highlights the recent economic developments and outlook and risks related to the Montenegro’s economy. It also discusses policies which need to be implemented to boost growth. Montenegro’s economy has rebounded in the past year, and strong growth looks set to continue in 2016, at slightly more than 4 percent. Although the government’s growth strategy can bring substantial gains, it also carries sizable risks, notably to the public finances. The authorities have taken various policy measures to (1) contain fiscal sustainability risks, (2) sustainably revitalize credit conditions, (3) safeguard financial sector stability, and (4) boost competitiveness and economic flexibility.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; asset; production GDP estimate; asset quality; consumer price index; Montenegro; article IV staff; growth strategy; Montenegro's economy; Montenegro authorities; insurance oversight framework; assessment of the resilience; Credit; Public sector wages; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Boosting Job Growth in the Western Balkans
Dmitriy Kovtun
,
Alexis Meyer-Cirkel
,
Ms. Zuzana Murgasova
,
Mr. Dustin Smith
, and
Suchanan Tambunlertchai
Labor markets in the Western Balkan countries (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia) are characterized by some of the highest unemployment and low employment rates in Europe. We analyze the poor labor market outcomes in these countries by comparison with the New Member States of the European Union and advanced European economies. Our findings suggest that long-lasting labor market weaknesses in the Western Balkans have structural roots: the institutional setup of the labor markets, labor cost factors, and especially the unfinished transition process. Finally, we offer policy recommendations for boosting job creation.
Keywords:
WP; labor market; unemployment benefit; Balkan countries; labor market outcome; labor market problem; Labor markets; The Balkans; natural rate of unemployment; Labor migration; cost factor; labor market challenge; labor market practice; labor market rigidity; practices in the Balkan countries; unemployment spell; labor-leisure decision; labor market performance; Unemployment; Labor costs; Wages; Unemployment rate; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Montenegro: Staff Report for the 2012 Article IV Consultation
International Monetary Fund
This 2012 Article IV Consultation highlights that three years after the sudden end of Montenegro’s boom, there has been considerable progress toward recovery. Fiscal imbalances have proved difficult to rein in, reflecting a large fall in revenue after the collapse of the boom. Executive Directors have commended the authorities’ efforts to stabilize the economy, and welcomed the progress made since the financial crisis. Directors have also recognized the sizable public expenditure adjustment over the past few years, but underscored the need for further high-quality deficit reducing measures.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; commercial bank loan; staff appraisal; IMF staff representative; financing risk; deficit; privatization contract; Loan guarantees; Labor markets; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Montenegro: 2010 Article IV Consultation-Staff Report; Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Montenegro.
International Monetary Fund
This 2010 Article IV Consultation highlights that Montenegro has been hard hit by the global financial crisis. Contagion and concerns about the robustness of the banking system have triggered large deposit withdrawals and a credit crunch. Moreover, the unwinding of the real estate boom has generated strong negative wealth effects that depressed demand. The authorities have taken wide-ranging measures to stabilize the financial system and rekindle lending activity. Foreign parents have also stepped in with substantial liquidity infusion.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; deficit; authority; mall; authorities of Montenegro; priced government service; IMF staff estimate; blanket deposit guarantee measure; further labor market reform; state guarantee; deposit withdrawal; Credit; Wages; Government finance statistics; Monetary statistics; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Montenegro: 2007 Article IV Consultation: Staff Report; Staff Statement; Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Montenegro
International Monetary Fund
The economic expansion in Montenegro is proceeding at full strength. The economy is overheating. Rapid credit growth is overstretching banks, and has contributed to ballooning asset prices. Eroding competitiveness is a concern. Management of the boom falls on fiscal policy. Tax cuts have been procyclical and potentially destabilizing. Fiscal risks need to be contained. The main focus of credit policy should be to strengthen banking sector supervision. Completing the transition to a market economy should be kept at the top of the policy agenda.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; foreign direct investment; authority; Montenegrin authorities; outturn; policy; credit growth; retail price inflation; staff appraisal; FDI inflow; Credit; Tourism; Public sector; Fiscal stance; Global; Baltics
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Serbia and Montenegro: Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper—Progress Reports
International Monetary Fund
This paper discusses the First Progress Report on the implementation of the Poverty Reduction Strategy (PRS) in Serbia. The Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) for Serbia and its implementation complement the efforts of Serbia in the European Union integration process. The PRSP also includes a focus on the need to reform the public administration with the goal of increasing the efficiency and transparency of policy coordination and governance in implementing the programmatic documents of the Republic of Serbia as well as in improving the way of governing the overall and public sector policies.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; financial support; gross domestic product; absolute poverty; private sector; job creation; economic growth; poverty rate; employment agency; Poverty reduction strategy; Poverty reduction and development; Eastern Europe; Southern Europe; Western Europe; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Serbia and Montenegro: Fourth Review Under the Extended Arrangement (EA), Financing Assurances Review, Request for Waivers, and Modification of an end-December 2004 Performance Criterion
International Monetary Fund
The Fourth Review Under the Extended Arrangement, Financing Assurances Review, and Request for Waiver of Performance Criteria for Serbia and Montenegro are discussed. The agreed tighter fiscal, monetary, and incomes policies should cool off wage and credit growth, which are driving the demand for imports. The bold resumption of structural reforms should over time help increase exports, which remain exceptionally low in reference to GDP. The fragile political situation could affect the ability of the reformist minority government to press ahead with bold reforms.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; prefix; lending; fiscal policy; credit growth; staff appraisal; consumer lending; expenditure side; widening current account deficit; Privatization; Wages; Eastern Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Serbia and Montenegro: Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper
International Monetary Fund
This paper focuses on Serbia and Montenegro’s Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP). Through the process of developing the Poverty Reduction Strategy, national indicators in line with the Millennium Development Goals have been identified. The poverty reduction strategy for the Union focuses on establishing conditions for dynamic and equitable economic growth, through the creation of a stable macroeconomic environment and favorable investment climate to create employment, reduce economic vulnerability, and establish key programs to directly promote employment among the poor.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; absolute poverty; labour market; private sector; local government; financial support; Global; Eastern Europe; Europe; Southern Europe