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International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Public investment is expected to play a significant role in the post-pandemic economic recovery in Montenegro. Due to the importance of the tourism sector, the pandemic has had a deep economic impact. In addition, as government debt already exceeds one hundred percent of GDP, fiscal space to increase public investment is limited. Nevertheless, the completion of the first phase of the Bar-Boljare Highway (BBH), by the end of 2021, should free up public resources within the budget constraint, that could be used for public investments. In this context, a strengthened public investment management (PIM) framework would contribute to maximize its impact on economic growth.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
COVID-19 hit the economy hard, but a strong recovery is underway. Public debt, already elevated before the pandemic, has increased further. The government has embarked on a reform program ‘Europe Now’, which aims to arrest outward migration through a sharp minimum wage increase, labor tax wedge reduction, and the introduction of a progressive tax code. The financial sector appears to have withstood the COVID-19 shock well.
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This Technical Assistance Report on Montenegro highlights work of the mission with the authorities which included compiling monetary data based on the IMF standardized report forms (SRF), 1SR, and SRF 2SR, for depository corporations. While the depository corporations sector currently dominates the financial system in Montenegro, the Central Bank of Montenegro (CBCG) should also ensure the availability of source data for the compilation and dissemination of a quarterly Other Financial Corporations (OFC) survey given the sector’s potential to grow. The mission found the CBCG’s current data collection framework is broadly appropriate for the compilation of monetary data in line with the MFSMCG 2016 for the depository corporations’ sector, but further work is needed for OFCs. The mission advised on the correct treatment of negative interest accruals (due to negative interest rates) to ensure that the negative accruals diminish the value of the asset.
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This Technical Assistance (TA) report focuses the compilation of financial soundness indicators (FSI) for the deposit takers (DTs), which cover 15 commercial banks, using the chart of accounts (COAs) and supervisory series as source data. The regulatory and accounting practices of the DTs are broadly in line with the FSI Guide, which defers to Basel principles and International Accounting Standards. The mission recommended an action plan with the following priority recommendations to support progress in the FSI compilation. The mission highlighted the need to complement the FSI data with the corresponding metadata. Metadata should also contain information on the content and coverage of the FSIs, as well as the accounting conventions and other national guidelines. As the financial performance of commercial banks’ counterpart sectors as well as key markets has direct impact on the soundness of the financial sector, it is recommended to coordinate with regulators of other financial institutions that are not under the Central Bank of Montenegro’s supervision to draw a work program to collect data for compiling FSIs for other financial corporations.
Mr. Brian Olden
,
Mr. Duncan P Last
,
Mr. Sami Yläoutinen
, and
Ms. Carla Sateriale
This paper assesses the relative strengths and weaknesses of fiscal institutions in ten Southeastern European countries, using recent benchmarking methodologies developed by FAD. The assessment evaluates each country’s understanding of the scale of the fiscal adjustment challenge, its ability to develop a credible consolidation strategy, and its capacity to implement the strategy. Key institutional arrangements, are generally in place, including top-down budgeting and medium-term budget frameworks. Other institutional arrangements require further attention, including macro-fiscal forecasting, fiscal risk analysis, setting fiscal objectives, presence and role of independent fiscal agencies, and top-down parliamentary approval.
Francesco Spadafora
,
Mr. Emidio Cocozza
, and
Mr. Andrea Colabella
This paper analyzes the impact of the global crisis on six South-Eastern European countries. The main objective is to compare macro-financial conditions and policies in the run-up to the crisis as well as to compare the policy responses to it, so as to highlight, inter alia, possible country-specific constraints. While sharing a common pre-crisis pattern of strong capital inflows and robust growth, a key difference in the conduct of macroeconomicpolicies is that some countries adopted expansionary (and procyclical) fiscal policies. These moves exacerbated external vulnerabilities and compromised the ability to discretionarily use the fiscal instrument in acountercyclical fashion.
Mr. Jack Diamond
and
Mr. Duncan P Last
For the republics of the former Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (SFRY) as for many other transition economies, an important step in introducing a more market-oriented system was the restructuring of their budget systems. This paper reviews and evaluates the process of budget system reform during the transition period extending from the time they emerged from the collapse of the SFRY in 1989 until the end of 2002. For at least a decade of this period, the Fiscal Affairs Department of the IMF has been providing technical assistance (TA) to these countries to facilitate such reforms. Based on the material generated by this effort, the authors offer a review of the progress made and an assessment of the reform elements still to be completed. Given that the former Yugoslav republics all commenced the reform process with the same institutions, this paper offers a unique opportunity to analyze the critical elements in successful budget system reform. An attempt is made to explain the varying degrees of success experienced by different countries, and a reform agenda is suggested to guide future TA.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
For many years, the IMF has tracked countries’ military spending. The IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department describes its most recent findings and also looks at patterns in military as well as poverty-reducing spending in countries with loans under the IMF’s concessional Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF).
International Monetary Fund
The Federal Republic of Yugoslavia is faced with the task of stabilizing and reviving a devastated economy after years of military conflicts, sanctions, and economic mismanagement. A weakened institutional capacity and the still evolving political situation is a cause for concern. A short-term macroeconomic strategy is required to bring down inflation. The fiscal position should be improved, and the continued incurrence of expenditure arrears should be avoided. The government should adopt a comprehensive economic program of stabilization and reform that can be supported by the IMF.