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Europe > Montenegro

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Montenegro: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes the long-term growth prospects and the output gap in Montenegro. Historical growth in Montenegro was driven mostly by capital with some contribution from labor, while total factor productivity (TFP) contributed negatively. Going forward, in the baseline growth accounting framework with no reforms, employment will likely have a slightly negative contribution because of demographic dynamics unless both labor force participation and unemployment improve significantly. The highway project will contribute to capital accumulation in the near term, but the contribution from capital accumulation will likely fall despite relatively high investment ratios. Based on historical performance, the contribution from TFP is likely limited and constitutes the main bottleneck for long-term growth prospects in the no-reform baseline.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; bank; expenditure; minimum wage; fiscal policy; TFP growth; IMF staff estimate; child care; output gap estimate; trend revenue; TFP assumption; expenditure elasticity; bank emergency liquidity assistance; highway spending; Total factor productivity; Output gap; Labor markets; Fiscal stance; Global; Eastern Europe; Southern Europe; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Montenegro: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Selected Issues

Keywords:
ISCR; CR; bank; expenditure; minimum wage; fiscal policy; TFP contribution; TFP effect; smoothed TFP; unemployment rate; IMF staff projection; Labor force participation; Depreciation; Potential output; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Montenegro: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Selected Issues

Keywords:
ISCR; CR; bank; expenditure; minimum wage; fiscal policy; trend expenditure; one-off expenditure item; one-off revenue; output gap estimate; GDP ratio; Output gap; Fiscal consolidation; Global
Cover IMF Survey
Interview: Transition countries should not worry too much about real exchange rate appreciations
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.

Anumber of countries making the transition from centrally planned to market economies have experienced strong real exchange rate appreciations. What is causing these movements, and what steps should policymakers take in response? And with these appreciations typically entailing higher inflation, will the countries seeking to join the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) be able to meet the Maastricht inflation criterion? A recent paper by Mark De Broeck of the IMFs European I Department and Torsten Sløk of the Research Department finds that, in a number of countries, these appreciations are mostly driven by productivity gains. When real exchange rate appreciations are part of the process of income convergence toward the advanced economies, there is no need, they argue, for a policy response.

Keywords:
SV; IMF Concludes; IMF Approves; background colo; EU accession countries; productivity gain; EMU membership; appreciation in the transition country; EU enlargement process; Exchange rate arrangements; Productivity; Income