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Europe > Montenegro

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Montenegro: Staff Report for the 2024 Article IV Consultation-Informational Annex
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

MONTENEGRO

Keywords:
MONSTAT report; financial asset; expenditure account; resource constraint; quarterly GDP estimate; Government finance statistics; External sector statistics; Exchange rate arrangements; International investment position
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Surviving Low Interest Rates Central Banks in Kosovo and Other Western Balkan Countries: Republic of Kosovo
Mr. Si Guo
Interest income from foreign reserves is one of the main revenue sources for most emerging market central banks. For central banks in the Western Balkan region, the low global interest rates during 2008–2021 negatively affected their revenues, and the impact was more pronounced for central banks in Kosovo, Montenegro, and Bosnia and Herzegovina because they cannot use seigniorage to finance their operations. This paper explores how these central banks coped with the long period of low-interest rates. The main finding is that the decline in interest income from foreign reserves was partially compensated by higher fees, commissions, and other regulatory revenues.
Keywords:
Central bank; Low interest rates; Kosovo; Montenegro; Bosinia; Herzegovina; interest income; central banks in Kosovo; emerging market central banks; rising interest rates; personnel cost-to-GDP ratio; Income; International reserves; Central bank rates; Government securities; Exchange rate arrangements; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Inflation Dynamics in the Western Balkans
Gohar Minasyan
,
Ezgi O. Ozturk
,
Magali Pinat
,
Mengxue Wang
, and
Zeju Zhu
After trailing Euro Area inflation closely in the recent past, inflation in the Western Balkans has accelerated faster since early 2022 on the back of the shocks to global commodity prices, strong recovery from the pandemic, and lingering supply bottlenecks. This paper employs two complementary empirical approaches of an augmented Phillips curve and structural VAR, adapting them to the data availability and country specificities of the Western Balkans, to analyze the inflation dynamics in the region. It finds that international food prices affect not only headline but also core inflation as well as inflation expectations. Further, inflation in the Western Balkans is not just determined by foreign shocks, and domestic factors, aggregate demand shocks in particular, have a significant impact on inflation. These findings imply a possible role for policies to temporarily limit an immediate and complete pass-through of international to domestic food prices while also stressing the importance of an appropriate domestic macroeconomic policy mix to keep inflation expectations anchored and safeguard credibility in the face of high inflation persistence.
Keywords:
Inflation; Western Balkans; international food price shocks; commodity price shocks; Phillips curve; panel data; structural VAR; inflation expectation; inflation dynamics; inflations determinant; inflation development; inflation in the Western Balkans; Food prices; Energy prices; Nominal effective exchange rate; Global; Europe
Cover Negative Euro Area Interest Rates and Spillovers on Western Balkan Central Bank Policies and Instruments
Negative Euro Area Interest Rates and Spillovers on Western Balkan Central Bank Policies and Instruments
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

Proceedings of a conference co-hosted by the Bank of Albania and the International Monetary Fund in May 2017.

Keywords:
SEM; interest rate; euro; central bank; rate; bank; interest rate differential; interest rate environment; ECB monetary policy; FX reserve; risk-taking channel; Currencies; Negative interest rates; Financial sector stability; Exchange rates; Central bank policy rate; Global; Europe; Western Europe; Eastern Europe; Baltics; ECB monetary policy implementation framework; International reserves
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Albania: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
Inflation in Southeastern European (SEE) countries has been comparable with euro area inflation, partly owing to on the one hand, high initial price levels. On the other hand, the exchange rate regime is of paramount importance, including the inflation-targeting regime pursued in Albania. The analysis also explores additional heterogeneity between SEE and other regions. Two fiscal rules—a debt rule and an expenditure rule with a debt brake—are discussed in the context of Albania’s current economic outlook. Both rules will contribute toward enhancing fiscal sustainability in Albania.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; expenditure rule; rule; debt rule; SEE region; price level index; SEE country; GDP projection; excl. Serbia; Inflation; Fiscal rules; Exchange rate arrangements; Eastern Europe; Middle East; North Africa; Central Asia; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Serbia: Staff Report for the 2010 Article IV Consultation, Third Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement, and Financing Assurances Review
International Monetary Fund
This 2010 Article IV Consultation highlights that the authorities’ adjustment program has contributed to limiting the fallout of the global crisis on Serbia. Although the output slump has been limited relative to regional peers, the decline in domestic demand has been significant, resulting in a strong external adjustment. The outlook for 2010 points to a slow but balanced recovery. The pickup in growth will likely be moderate, reflecting slow trading-partner recovery, protracted corporate deleveraging, nominal freezes in public wages and pensions, and lagging labor market adjustment.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; policy; tolerance band; policy action; adjustment strategy; regime; inflation expectation; consumer cash loan; growth potential; Pension spending; Fiscal stance; Balance of payments statistics; Global
Cover Policy Papers
IMF Policy Paper: Quota and Voice Reform—Stocktaking and Further Considerations
International Monetary Fund

1. At its Spring Meeting, the IMFC reiterated the importance of implementing the program of quota and voice reforms in line with the timetable set out by the Board of Governors in Singapore.2 The Committee welcomed the initial informal Board discussions on a new quota formula and stressed the importance of agreeing on a new formula, which should be simple and transparent and should capture members’ relative positions in the world economy. It noted that this reform would result in higher shares for dynamic economies, many of which are emerging market economies, whose weight and role in the global economy have increased. The Committee also stressed the importance of enhancing the voice and participation of low-income countries, a key issue for which is an increase in basic votes, at a minimum preserving the voting share of low-income countries. The Committee called on the Executive Board to continue its work on the reform package as a matter of priority.

Keywords:
PP; IMF document; PPP GDP; document; GDP; shares of LIC; GDP growth; transition economy; quota share; GDP blend; Purchasing power parity; Market exchange rates; International banking; Exchange rates; Gold; Global; Africa
Cover Policy Papers
IMF Policy Paper: Quota and Voice-Stocktaking and Further Considerations-Statistical Appendix
International Monetary Fund

This supplement responds to requests made by two Executive Directors for quota calculations based on two alternative approaches:

Keywords:
PP; IMF document; PPP GDP; document; GDP; GDP blend; PPP data; transition economy; data adjustment; Purchasing power parity; Market exchange rates; Global; Africa; Western Hemisphere; Middle East; Asia and Pacific
Cover Policy Papers
IMF Policy Paper: Quota and Voice Reform—Elements of a Possible Approach
International Monetary Fund

1. At the Executive Board discussion of quota and voice reform in July, which built upon two earlier informal seminars, Directors highlighted the need to make significant further progress in the coming months.2 This would enable the Executive Board to report concrete and substantial progress to the Board of Governors at the Annual Meetings. It was envisaged that the period leading up to the Annual Meetings would be used to begin to resolve the remaining areas of difference and focus on the main choices that need to be made. In that vein, staff and management were to consider how the views expressed and guidance provided by Directors so far could be built upon to identify more concretely the scope for specific proposals.

Keywords:
PP; IMF document; quota share; voting share; PPP GDP; share; shares of LIC; market rate GDP; PPP data; blend variable; Purchasing power parity; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Market exchange rates; Income; International banking; Global; Middle East; Western Hemisphere; Africa; Asia and Pacific
Cover Policy Papers
IMF Policy Paper: Quota and Voice Reform—Elements of a Possible Approach Statistical Appendix
International Monetary Fund

Calculated as the sum of variable weights multiplied by a country’s shares in the global total of the respective variables.

Keywords:
PP; IMF document; quota share; voting share; PPP GDP; share; data adjustment; GDP blend; shares of LIC; Purchasing power parity; Market exchange rates; International banking; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Gold; Global; Africa; Middle East; Western Hemisphere; Asia and Pacific