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International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation discusses that the Montenegrin economy grew robustly by 6 percent in 2023 as consumption remained strong, tourism revenues exceeded pre-pandemic levels, and the influx of relatively affluent Russian and Ukrainian nationals due to Russia’s war in Ukraine contributed to growth. Growth is expected to moderate to 3.7 percent in 2024 and ease further to about 3 percent over the medium term. While system-wide indicators of financial stability are healthy, the Central Bank Governor needs to remain vigilant regarding lingering pockets of vulnerability. In order to better inform policy judgements, trends in domestic advantage, as well as the banking sector’s growing exposure to foreign securities need to be closely monitored. Diversification both within and away from the tourism sector can help decrease the vulnerability of the economy to shocks. A more conducive environment for a small and medium enterprises sector would enable it to benefit from the presence of skilled migrants in the country.
Zsoka Koczan
Emerging Europe has undergone a major economic transformation over the past 25 years. Most countries experienced initial drops in output during transition, followed by recovery in the second half of the 1990s. The path of transition in the Western Balkans has however been particularly uneven. The effects of transition also seem to have been more traumatic and persistent in the Western Balkans, and nostalgia for the past appears to be more prevalent here than in other former communist regions. Such dissatisfaction has important implications for the political economy of further reforms. This paper aims to inform policy by complementing the analysis of standard macro-level measures of inequality and poverty with a household-level analysis of subjective perceptions of poverty. We find that many more people appear to feel poor than are classified as such using purely income-based measures. Uncertainty, in particular related to expectations of future income and vulnerability to shocks, appears to be a key driver behind this discrepancy.
Mr. Jiro Honda
This paper examines the effects of IMF financial assistance on economic governance in developing countries, based on panel data analyses of perceived governance indicators. It uses a two-stage approach to address possible endogeneity issues. The results show that successful implementation of IMF programs is associated with improvements in the quality of economic governance. Specifically, the paper finds statistically robust results that IMF concessional programs through the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility tend to enhance the rule of law and strengthen control of corruption. Through this exercise, however, no statistically significant effect is observed for assistances under the General Resource Account.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Montenegro, IMF membership, Peru loan, Lebanon, Murilo Portugal interview, IMF technical assistance (TA), Vietnam and WTO, Colombia, foreign direct investment, gender and economics, Arab economies, France and 35-hour week.
International Monetary Fund
This paper discusses the First Progress Report on the implementation of the Poverty Reduction Strategy (PRS) in Serbia. The Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) for Serbia and its implementation complement the efforts of Serbia in the European Union integration process. The PRSP also includes a focus on the need to reform the public administration with the goal of increasing the efficiency and transparency of policy coordination and governance in implementing the programmatic documents of the Republic of Serbia as well as in improving the way of governing the overall and public sector policies.
International Monetary Fund
This Joint Staff Advisory Note discusses the Poverty Reduction Strategy Progress (PRSP) Reports for Serbia and Montenegro. Although the strong economic growth in recent years in Serbia has improved average living standards, the reports note that its impact on poverty reduction remains inconclusive. The increases in real wages and pensions have boosted household incomes and consumption, according to the national accounts statistics. There are growing regional disparities, with Belgrade increasing its advantage over the rest of the country.
International Monetary Fund
This Report assesses Observance of Standards and Codes on the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) Recommendations for Anti-Money Laundering and Combating the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) for Serbia and Montenegro. The assessment reveals that the AML/CFT regime of Serbia still lacks some essential components. On the repressive side, there is not a specific provision on the financing of terrorism. It is possible to confiscate the proceeds of crime, but it is not possible to confiscate money intended to finance an act of terrorism.
International Monetary Fund
This paper focuses on Serbia and Montenegro’s Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP). Through the process of developing the Poverty Reduction Strategy, national indicators in line with the Millennium Development Goals have been identified. The poverty reduction strategy for the Union focuses on establishing conditions for dynamic and equitable economic growth, through the creation of a stable macroeconomic environment and favorable investment climate to create employment, reduce economic vulnerability, and establish key programs to directly promote employment among the poor.
International Monetary Fund
This paper presents the Joint Staff Assessment of Serbia and Montenegro’s Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP). The PRSP for Serbia and Montenegro comprises a union-level overview and a PRSP for each of the two republics. The Montenegrin PRSP is broadly in line with the Agenda of Economic Reforms, the key government document setting priorities. The Serbian PRSP is also broadly consistent with other government strategies and plans, including “Serbia on the Move,” a document presented at a donor coordination meeting in November 2003.