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Gohar Minasyan
,
Ezgi O. Ozturk
,
Magali Pinat
,
Mengxue Wang
, and
Zeju Zhu
After trailing Euro Area inflation closely in the recent past, inflation in the Western Balkans has accelerated faster since early 2022 on the back of the shocks to global commodity prices, strong recovery from the pandemic, and lingering supply bottlenecks. This paper employs two complementary empirical approaches of an augmented Phillips curve and structural VAR, adapting them to the data availability and country specificities of the Western Balkans, to analyze the inflation dynamics in the region. It finds that international food prices affect not only headline but also core inflation as well as inflation expectations. Further, inflation in the Western Balkans is not just determined by foreign shocks, and domestic factors, aggregate demand shocks in particular, have a significant impact on inflation. These findings imply a possible role for policies to temporarily limit an immediate and complete pass-through of international to domestic food prices while also stressing the importance of an appropriate domestic macroeconomic policy mix to keep inflation expectations anchored and safeguard credibility in the face of high inflation persistence.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on challenges and opportunities in Kosovo’s electricity sector. Energy market pressures in Europe are likely to continue throughout 2023. Higher energy prices represent a heavy blow for Kosovo’s current account. The tariff-setting framework is broadly sound, but the increase in European electricity prices has led to challenges. Higher European electricity prices have stressed the sector’s flows, creating liquidity choke points. Higher European electricity prices and lower domestic electricity supply may result is significant stress for Kosovo’s energy sector and budget. In the short term, more efficient use of electricity should reduce demand and contribute to balance the system in 2023. In the medium term, boosting energy efficiency and diversification away from lignite is priority. To that end, creating a fund for the renewal and expansion of domestic electricity generation capacity in green technologies could be explored. Starting to explore carbon pricing would strengthen price signals and result in more efficient demand and less carbon intensity.
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

The speeches made by officials attending the IMF–World Bank Annual Meetings are published in this volume, along with the press communiqués issued by the International Monetary and Financial Committee and the Development Committee at the conclusion of the meetings.

International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Solicitud de fortalecimiento del FMI, Perspectivas de crecimiento mundial, Strauss-Kahn asume como nuevo Director Gerente del FMI, Comunicado del CMFI, Globalización, Ciclo económico mundial, flujos de capital, Seminarios durante las Reuniones Anuales, Perspectivas de la economía asiática, Perspectivas de economía africana, Notas breves.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Calls for stronger IMF, World Growth Outlook, Strauss-Kahn Takes Over as New IMF Head, IMFC Communique, Globalization, Global Business Cycle, Capital Flows, Annual Meetings Seminars, Asian Economic Outlook, African Economic Outlook, News Briefs.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Plaidoyer pour un FMI plus robuste ; Perspectives de l'économie mondiale ; Strauss-Kahn prend la tête du FMI ; communiqué du CMFI ; mondialisation ; cycle économique mondial ; flux de capitaux ; séminaires lors de l'assemblée annuelle ; perspectives économiques asiatiques ; perspectives économiques africaines ; point sur l'actualité.