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International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The COVID-19 pandemic will hit Montenegro hard, as tourism is a key industry. Fiscal space has eroded in recent years due to large public capital outlays, and the COVID-19 crisis is creating new budgetary strains as health spending and other expenditures rise, while the economic contraction lowers revenues.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that Montenegro’s recovery from the collapse of the lending boom in 2008 has been slowed by the debt overhang that remains in the private sector. Output contracted in 2012 because of unusually severe winter weather early in the year, as well as a sharp decline in aluminum production as the financial position of the troubled aluminum company (KAP) continued to worsen. Activity picked up in early 2013 as more favorable weather conditions resulted in a sharp increase in hydro-based electricity production. A sustained, multi-year fiscal consolidation effort is needed to reduce the public debt burden to an appropriately low level in the medium term.
International Monetary Fund
The economic expansion in Montenegro is proceeding at full strength. The economy is overheating. Rapid credit growth is overstretching banks, and has contributed to ballooning asset prices. Eroding competitiveness is a concern. Management of the boom falls on fiscal policy. Tax cuts have been procyclical and potentially destabilizing. Fiscal risks need to be contained. The main focus of credit policy should be to strengthen banking sector supervision. Completing the transition to a market economy should be kept at the top of the policy agenda.