Abstract
This report analyses the main economic developments and achievements in the Western Balkan countries, and lays out the key macroeconomic policy challenges for the future.
This 2005 Article IV Consultation highlights that macroeconomic imbalances in Serbia and Montenegro widened in 2004, putting at risk some of the impressive earlier achievements. Growth, about 5 percent in nonagriculture since 2002, has been fueled by a surge in domestic demand. Lack of competitive domestic production has led to increased imports and a widening current account deficit. The main policy challenge is to maintain macroeconomic stability while accelerating structural reform. Fiscal policy needs to be tightened substantially, and its flexibility increased by reducing the large share of nondiscretionary spending.
This 2005 Article IV Consultation highlights that macroeconomic imbalances in Serbia and Montenegro widened in 2004, putting at risk some of the impressive earlier achievements. Growth, about 5 percent in nonagriculture since 2002, has been fueled by a surge in domestic demand. Lack of competitive domestic production has led to increased imports and a widening current account deficit. The main policy challenge is to maintain macroeconomic stability while accelerating structural reform. Fiscal policy needs to be tightened substantially, and its flexibility increased by reducing the large share of nondiscretionary spending.
This 2005 Article IV Consultation highlights that macroeconomic imbalances in Serbia and Montenegro widened in 2004, putting at risk some of the impressive earlier achievements. Growth, about 5 percent in nonagriculture since 2002, has been fueled by a surge in domestic demand. Lack of competitive domestic production has led to increased imports and a widening current account deficit. The main policy challenge is to maintain macroeconomic stability while accelerating structural reform. Fiscal policy needs to be tightened substantially, and its flexibility increased by reducing the large share of nondiscretionary spending.
The Fourth Review Under the Extended Arrangement, Financing Assurances Review, and Request for Waiver of Performance Criteria for Serbia and Montenegro are discussed. The agreed tighter fiscal, monetary, and incomes policies should cool off wage and credit growth, which are driving the demand for imports. The bold resumption of structural reforms should over time help increase exports, which remain exceptionally low in reference to GDP. The fragile political situation could affect the ability of the reformist minority government to press ahead with bold reforms.
This paper examines Serbia and Montenegro’s Third Review Under the Extended Arrangement and Requests for Waiver of Performance Criterion. Serbia and Montenegro’s recent economic performance has been mixed, combining excellent progress in some areas with an uncomfortably large current account deficit and modest growth in output and exports from low levels. The envisaged tightening of fiscal policy is broadly appropriate—albeit overly reliant on revenue measures. Achieving the fiscal deficit target will help narrow the current account deficit and place the fiscal and external accounts on sustainable paths.