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International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

On behalf of the Montenegrin authorities, we would like to thank Mr. Seshadri and his team for their in-depth report and constructive engagement, including the in-person consultations in Podgorica last November. We would like to offer the following comments.

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The COVID-19 pandemic will hit Montenegro hard, as tourism is a key industry. Fiscal space has eroded in recent years due to large public capital outlays, and the COVID-19 crisis is creating new budgetary strains as health spending and other expenditures rise, while the economic contraction lowers revenues.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2019 Article IV Consultation with Montenegro highlights that while the implementation of large publicly financed infrastructure projects has added economic growth, the accompanying use of fiscal resources has contributed to a large increase in government debt including guarantees, which reached 79 percent of gross domestic product in 2018. Despite the recent intervention in two non-systemic domestic banks, the overall banking sector exhibits improving asset quality, strong credit growth, high liquidity, and is well capitalized. Efforts to improve banking and Anti-Money Laundering/Combating the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) supervision are paramount. The emphasis should be a shift to risk-based tools for supervision in both off-site and on-site functions, and the establishment of a stronger supervisory structure within the central bank. The main priorities are reduction of the labor tax wedge and implementation of the new labor law that aims to increase labor market flexibility. Future decisions on the minimum wage should consider a broad set of indicators and require careful analyses of the impact of past increases.
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This Technical Assistance Report on Montenegro highlights work of the mission with the authorities which included compiling monetary data based on the IMF standardized report forms (SRF), 1SR, and SRF 2SR, for depository corporations. While the depository corporations sector currently dominates the financial system in Montenegro, the Central Bank of Montenegro (CBCG) should also ensure the availability of source data for the compilation and dissemination of a quarterly Other Financial Corporations (OFC) survey given the sector’s potential to grow. The mission found the CBCG’s current data collection framework is broadly appropriate for the compilation of monetary data in line with the MFSMCG 2016 for the depository corporations’ sector, but further work is needed for OFCs. The mission advised on the correct treatment of negative interest accruals (due to negative interest rates) to ensure that the negative accruals diminish the value of the asset.
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This Technical Assistance (TA) report focuses the compilation of financial soundness indicators (FSI) for the deposit takers (DTs), which cover 15 commercial banks, using the chart of accounts (COAs) and supervisory series as source data. The regulatory and accounting practices of the DTs are broadly in line with the FSI Guide, which defers to Basel principles and International Accounting Standards. The mission recommended an action plan with the following priority recommendations to support progress in the FSI compilation. The mission highlighted the need to complement the FSI data with the corresponding metadata. Metadata should also contain information on the content and coverage of the FSIs, as well as the accounting conventions and other national guidelines. As the financial performance of commercial banks’ counterpart sectors as well as key markets has direct impact on the soundness of the financial sector, it is recommended to coordinate with regulators of other financial institutions that are not under the Central Bank of Montenegro’s supervision to draw a work program to collect data for compiling FSIs for other financial corporations.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that Montenegro’s economy is growing strongly, boosted by the implementation of large investment projects, including the construction of the Bar-Boljare highway. Growth should continue over the medium term, albeit at a more moderate pace as highway construction ends. The IMF staff projects the economy to expand by 3 percent in 2018 and 2.5 percent in 2019, with fiscal consolidation also acting as a moderate drag on growth. Although the implementation of large publicly financed infrastructure projects has added to economic growth, the accompanying use of fiscal resources has contributed to a large increase in government debt. Economic growth should remain strong in 2018, notwithstanding fiscal consolidation, and maintain momentum over the medium term.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This paper examines the current state of nonperforming loans (NPLs) in Montenegro, assesses the regulatory and supervisory framework as well as the insolvency and creditor rights regime, and makes recommendations for strengthening the framework. The paper evaluates the legal, regulatory, and supervisory regimes in four key areas: (1) creditor rights and enforcement systems (for secured and unsecured credit); (2) debt recovery and informal enterprise workout practices; (3) formal insolvency system (liquidation and reorganization proceedings); and (4) effectiveness of the relevant institutional, regulatory, and supervisory frameworks in implementing laws, regulations, and supervisory requirements in this area. The local and regional boom-bust cycle has left a legacy of high NPLs in Montenegro.