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Europe > Montenegro

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Montenegro: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper focuses on Montenegro’s export sector performance and challenges. Montenegro has run a persistent trade deficit since its independence. Montenegro’s goods exports have decreased, while goods imports have been more or less stable. A comparison reveals a relatively weak recovery of goods exports for Montenegro. Montenegro’s goods exports to the euro area have declined over time despite euroization. Foreign demand explains services exports well, but less so goods exports. Business climate surveys indicate high nonprice barriers in Montenegro’s export sector. The share of high-value-added export goods has been diminishing over time. Services exports also signal narrow productivity gains. Weak productivity growth may hinder the export sector.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; goods export; goods; Montenegro; export destination; demand model; export sector; export demand equation; export share; export goods; exports goods value; Exports; Service exports; Personal income; Export performance; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Does A Regional Trade Agreement Lessen or Exacerbate Growth Volatility? An Empirical Investigation
Mr. Kangni R Kpodar
and
Patrick A. Imam
This paper assesses how regional trade agreements (RTAs) impact growth volatility on a worldwide sample of 170 countries with data spanning the period 1978-2012. Notwithstanding concerns that trade openness through RTAs can heighten exposure to shocks, in particular when it leads to increased product specialization, RTAs through enhanced policy credibility, improved policy coordination, and reduced risk of conflicts can ease growth volatility. Empirical estimations suggest the benefits outweigh the costs as RTAs are consistently associated with lower growth volatility, after controlling for trade openness and other determinants of growth volatility. Furthermore, regression results also suggest that countries that are more prone to shocks are more likely to join a RTA, in particular with countries with relatively less volatile growth, additionally enhancing the stabilization effect.
Keywords:
WP; growth volatility; regional trade agreement; trade openness; RTA member; trade partner; standard deviation; mega-RTAs agreement; growth rate; RTA dummy variable; affect growth volatility; trade creation; RTA member country; Regional trade; Exports; Imports; Trade agreements; Terms of trade; West Africa; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Trade Liberalization Strategies: What Could South Eastern Europe Learn From Cefta and Bfta?
Antonis Adam
,
Mr. James McHugh
, and
Mr. Theodora Kosma
This paper explores the effectiveness of the Central European Free Trade Area (CEFTA) and the Baltic Free Trade Area (BFTA). Estimates from a gravity model and bilateral trade data support the view that both CEFTA and BFTA helped expand regional trade and limit the emergence of a "hub-and-spoke" relationship between the CEECs and the European Union (EU). These empirical conclusions carry some important policy implications for the "second wave" of prospective EU members among Southeastern European Countries (SEECs). The paper argues that the SEECs should reconsider their bilateral approach to trade liberalization and move towards a multilateral free-trade area as exemplified by both the CEFTA and BFTA.
Keywords:
WP; BFTA agreement; EU agreement; market share; CEFTA membership; EU accession process; Trade liberalization; gravity models; stability pact; CEFTA; BFTA; EU enlargement; EU membership; BFTA country; CEFTA exports to the EU; Customs unions; Exports; Trade agreements; Trade balance; Europe; Eastern Europe; Baltics
Cover IMF Staff Papers
IMF Staff papers, Volume 46 No. 3
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
This paper examines determinants and leading indicators of banking crises. The paper examines episodes of banking system distress and crisis in a large sample of countries to identify which macroeconomic and financial variables can be useful leading indicators. The best warning signs of the recent Asian crises were proxies for the vulnerability of the banking and corporate sector. Full-blown banking crises are shown to be associated more with external developments, and domestic variables are the main leading indicators of severe but contained banking distress.
Keywords:
SP; central bank; Uzbekistan; inflation target; income elasticity; exchange rate volatility; export demand equation; Uzbek growth puzzle; financing requirement; Uzbek experience; Exchange rates; Inflation targeting; Inflation; Commercial banks; Exports; Baltics; Western Europe; East Asia; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Papers
IMF Staff papers: Volume 2 No. 3
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
This paper focuses on the relation of inflation to economic development. Due to the inadequacy of savings and the difficulty of directing them into productive investment, there is a strong temptation to raise the level of investment by expanding bank credit—that is, by inflation. In most low-income countries, even the most forceful measures for increasing savings and for applying them to the most urgent needs would still leave the economy with inadequate resources for the investment necessary to assure tolerable progress in raising productive efficiency and expanding production. The only way of securing adequate resources for development in such countries is by supplementing domestic savings with capital from abroad. It is characteristic of the underdeveloped countries that the resources they put into investment are generally a smaller proportion of their very much smaller national product than is true for the more highly developed countries. The proportionally low level of investment in underdeveloped countries may be due to various factors. Frequently, though not universally, the cause of inadequate investment is the unavailability of savings.
Keywords:
SP; fund; depreciation; rate; devaluation; price; fund Agreement; exchange depreciation; exchange devaluation; competitive depreciation; trade indices; Currencies; Income; Wages; Personal income; Inflation; Europe; Asia and Pacific; Eastern Europe