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Europe > Montenegro

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Front Matter
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

IMF Country Report No. 24/101

Keywords:
policy judgement; credit growth; IMF's transparency policy; debt net; tourism revenue; Fiscal stance
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Montenegro: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Montenegro
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation discusses that the Montenegrin economy grew robustly by 6 percent in 2023 as consumption remained strong, tourism revenues exceeded pre-pandemic levels, and the influx of relatively affluent Russian and Ukrainian nationals due to Russia’s war in Ukraine contributed to growth. Growth is expected to moderate to 3.7 percent in 2024 and ease further to about 3 percent over the medium term. While system-wide indicators of financial stability are healthy, the Central Bank Governor needs to remain vigilant regarding lingering pockets of vulnerability. In order to better inform policy judgements, trends in domestic advantage, as well as the banking sector’s growing exposure to foreign securities need to be closely monitored. Diversification both within and away from the tourism sector can help decrease the vulnerability of the economy to shocks. A more conducive environment for a small and medium enterprises sector would enable it to benefit from the presence of skilled migrants in the country.
Keywords:
production GDP estimate; EU integration; economic growth prospects; Policy discussion; CBM balance sheet; European Union initiative; Fiscal stance; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Montenegro: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Montenegro
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

1. Montenegro is a strategically located, unilaterally euroized economy. After gaining independence in 2006, the country was buffeted by the Global Financial Crisis. Following a period of tourism-driven growth averaging 4 percent in 2015-19, the economy was hit hard once again by COVID, contracting by over 15 percent in 2020. A strong recovery has taken root since 2021, and tourism has exceeded its pre-pandemic levels. The war in Ukraine has significantly impacted the economy through both real (via robust consumption growth due to migrants) and nominal (via inflation) channels, thereby improving its fiscal position. However, on current policies Montenegro's fiscal position is likely to gradually weaken once again over the medium term.

Keywords:
debt anchor; net acquisition; headline inflation; net credit; net incurrence
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Kosovo: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on challenges and opportunities in Kosovo’s electricity sector. Energy market pressures in Europe are likely to continue throughout 2023. Higher energy prices represent a heavy blow for Kosovo’s current account. The tariff-setting framework is broadly sound, but the increase in European electricity prices has led to challenges. Higher European electricity prices have stressed the sector’s flows, creating liquidity choke points. Higher European electricity prices and lower domestic electricity supply may result is significant stress for Kosovo’s energy sector and budget. In the short term, more efficient use of electricity should reduce demand and contribute to balance the system in 2023. In the medium term, boosting energy efficiency and diversification away from lignite is priority. To that end, creating a fund for the renewal and expansion of domestic electricity generation capacity in green technologies could be explored. Starting to explore carbon pricing would strengthen price signals and result in more efficient demand and less carbon intensity.
Keywords:
tax revenue growth; policy implication; Electricity supply chain; central banks in Kosovo; electricity sector; Electricity; Income; Natural gas sector; Tax administration core functions; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Front Matter
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Keywords:
Pima framework diagram; Public Investment Management Assessment (PIMA)
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Montenegro: Technical Assistance Report - Public Investment Management Assessment
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Public investment is expected to play a significant role in the post-pandemic economic recovery in Montenegro. Due to the importance of the tourism sector, the pandemic has had a deep economic impact. In addition, as government debt already exceeds one hundred percent of GDP, fiscal space to increase public investment is limited. Nevertheless, the completion of the first phase of the Bar-Boljare Highway (BBH), by the end of 2021, should free up public resources within the budget constraint, that could be used for public investments. In this context, a strengthened public investment management (PIM) framework would contribute to maximize its impact on economic growth.
Keywords:
IMF's Fiscal Affairs Department; management framework; I. Public investment; efficiency frontier; staff team of the International Monetary Fund; staff from the IMF's Fiscal Affairs Department; Budget planning and preparation; Capital budget; Public investment spending; Capital spending; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Montenegro: Technical Assistance Report - Public Investment Management Assessment
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.

Public investment is expected to play a significant role in the post-pandemic economic recovery in Montenegro. Due to the importance of the tourism sector, the pandemic has had a deep economic impact. In addition, as government debt already exceeds one hundred percent of GDP, fiscal space to increase public investment is limited. Nevertheless, the completion of the first phase of the Bar-Boljare Highway (BBH), by the end of 2021, should free up public resources within the budget constraint, that could be used for public investments. In this context, a strengthened public investment management (PIM) framework would contribute to maximize its impact on economic growth.

Keywords:
investment project; financial support; preparation process; mandate timeframe; government financing; Public investment spending
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Front Matter
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

IMF Country Report No. 22/60

Keywords:
targeted policy response to the pandemic; authorities' targeted policy response; Policy discussion; central bank support; reform program Europe Now; Asset quality review; COVID-19; Labor taxes; Labor markets; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Montenegro: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Montenegro
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
COVID-19 hit the economy hard, but a strong recovery is underway. Public debt, already elevated before the pandemic, has increased further. The government has embarked on a reform program ‘Europe Now’, which aims to arrest outward migration through a sharp minimum wage increase, labor tax wedge reduction, and the introduction of a progressive tax code. The financial sector appears to have withstood the COVID-19 shock well.
Keywords:
production GDP estimate; staff growth estimate; authorities' baseline scenario; Montenegrin authority; taxation regime; Government debt management; Labor taxes; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Montenegro: 2021 Article IV Consultation—Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Montenegro
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

1. Montenegro is a unilaterally euroized economy aiming for EU accession by 2025. It boasts a strategic and scenic location along the Adriatic coast, with significant potential to diversify beyond tourism into renewable energy production, and other sectors. After gaining independence in 2006, it was soon buffeted by the global financial crisis. Recovery was aided by a tourism boom in the years preceding the onset of COVID-19. In 2016, work began on the ambitious Bar-Boljare highway project (the first of four envisaged phases is close to completion) which boosted short-term growth, at the cost of a sharp increase in public debt.

Keywords:
private sector; flat rate; net credit; net budgetary impact; GDP collapse