Strong growth this year looks set to continue into the medium term. The authorities are seeking to accelerate growth and development, mainly through new infrastructure projects, but also with fiscal incentives. Although this growth strategy can bring substantial gains, it also poses sizeable risks, notably to public finances, and also in terms of the allocation of capital and financial stability. Gross debt has increased substantially over the past year and looks likely to increase significantly, to 80 percent of GDP. Staff recommends immediate and durable fiscal consolidation measures to limit risks to the public finances and to ensure favorable conditions for funding, particularly to the extent that further infrastructure projects would require additional public debt. Fiscal consolidation is also important for improving external balance, especially as the economy lacks independent monetary policy. A credible strategy to safeguard the health of the public finances would address longstanding problems with public expenditures, such as the very high level of spending on pensions and public sector wages. Measures should be supported by strengthening the fiscal framework and public financial management.
Abstract
This report analyses the main economic developments and achievements in the Western Balkan countries, and lays out the key macroeconomic policy challenges for the future.
KEY ISSUESContext: Moderate growth is continuing; however credit and wage growth are weak.The level of nonperforming loans (NPLs) remains high and public debt has risen sharplyin recent years.Fiscal policy: Medium-term funding needs to roll over existing debt and to fund budgetdeficits are large. A new highway, budgeted to cost about one quarter of GDP, will cause deficits to widen and add to public debt. The draft 2015 budget shows appropriate restraint on other spending, but a long period of strong fiscal discipline will be needed to manage fiscal risks. Laying out clear long-term plans for managing the public finances would boost credibility and reduce risks to market access. Fundamental expenditure reform, especially of the pension system and the public sector wage bill, would be an essential part of such plans.Financial sector: The banking system’s liquidity appears comfortable; however, profitability is low and lending spreads are high. Regulatory provisioning is set higher than that reported under international accounting standards, but a wide range of provisioning levels across banks and weak incentives to take losses remain concerns. A more transparent and comprehensive reporting environment would be beneficial.Reforms to ensure better enforcement of contracts and collateral would help bring down structural lending risk premia.Structural reform: Higher levels of labor participation and employment are needed to boost potential growth and safeguard the public finances. Ensuring that wages adjust in line with productivity alongside reforms to achieve better employment outcomes and boost productivity would enhance the economy’s ability to respond to macroeconomic shocks, and are even more important in a country that lacks its own currency and with decreasing fiscal buffers.
KEY ISSUESContext: Moderate growth is continuing; however credit and wage growth are weak.The level of nonperforming loans (NPLs) remains high and public debt has risen sharplyin recent years.Fiscal policy: Medium-term funding needs to roll over existing debt and to fund budgetdeficits are large. A new highway, budgeted to cost about one quarter of GDP, will cause deficits to widen and add to public debt. The draft 2015 budget shows appropriate restraint on other spending, but a long period of strong fiscal discipline will be needed to manage fiscal risks. Laying out clear long-term plans for managing the public finances would boost credibility and reduce risks to market access. Fundamental expenditure reform, especially of the pension system and the public sector wage bill, would be an essential part of such plans.Financial sector: The banking system’s liquidity appears comfortable; however, profitability is low and lending spreads are high. Regulatory provisioning is set higher than that reported under international accounting standards, but a wide range of provisioning levels across banks and weak incentives to take losses remain concerns. A more transparent and comprehensive reporting environment would be beneficial.Reforms to ensure better enforcement of contracts and collateral would help bring down structural lending risk premia.Structural reform: Higher levels of labor participation and employment are needed to boost potential growth and safeguard the public finances. Ensuring that wages adjust in line with productivity alongside reforms to achieve better employment outcomes and boost productivity would enhance the economy’s ability to respond to macroeconomic shocks, and are even more important in a country that lacks its own currency and with decreasing fiscal buffers.