Europe > Montenegro

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International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper focuses on Montenegro’s export sector performance and challenges. Montenegro has run a persistent trade deficit since its independence. Montenegro’s goods exports have decreased, while goods imports have been more or less stable. A comparison reveals a relatively weak recovery of goods exports for Montenegro. Montenegro’s goods exports to the euro area have declined over time despite euroization. Foreign demand explains services exports well, but less so goods exports. Business climate surveys indicate high nonprice barriers in Montenegro’s export sector. The share of high-value-added export goods has been diminishing over time. Services exports also signal narrow productivity gains. Weak productivity growth may hinder the export sector.
Mr. Kangni R Kpodar
and
Patrick A. Imam
This paper assesses how regional trade agreements (RTAs) impact growth volatility on a worldwide sample of 170 countries with data spanning the period 1978-2012. Notwithstanding concerns that trade openness through RTAs can heighten exposure to shocks, in particular when it leads to increased product specialization, RTAs through enhanced policy credibility, improved policy coordination, and reduced risk of conflicts can ease growth volatility. Empirical estimations suggest the benefits outweigh the costs as RTAs are consistently associated with lower growth volatility, after controlling for trade openness and other determinants of growth volatility. Furthermore, regression results also suggest that countries that are more prone to shocks are more likely to join a RTA, in particular with countries with relatively less volatile growth, additionally enhancing the stabilization effect.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper on the Republic of Kosovo’s 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights growth and Kosovo’s external environment. In the wake of the global financial crisis, Kosovo’s economic growth slowed but remained positive, while most other Western Balkans slipped into recession. Moreover, the annual average growth rate has been among the highest in the Western Balkans since the onset of the financial crisis in 2007. Kosovo’s tax-to-GDP ratio is comparable to the average of Southeastern Europe, although its tax system relies significantly more on indirect taxation—including a high share of trade taxes. Kosovo’s reliance on trade taxes may create budgetary pressures in the event of further trade liberalization.
Antonis Adam
,
Mr. James McHugh
, and
Mr. Theodora Kosma
This paper explores the effectiveness of the Central European Free Trade Area (CEFTA) and the Baltic Free Trade Area (BFTA). Estimates from a gravity model and bilateral trade data support the view that both CEFTA and BFTA helped expand regional trade and limit the emergence of a "hub-and-spoke" relationship between the CEECs and the European Union (EU). These empirical conclusions carry some important policy implications for the "second wave" of prospective EU members among Southeastern European Countries (SEECs). The paper argues that the SEECs should reconsider their bilateral approach to trade liberalization and move towards a multilateral free-trade area as exemplified by both the CEFTA and BFTA.
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
This paper examines determinants and leading indicators of banking crises. The paper examines episodes of banking system distress and crisis in a large sample of countries to identify which macroeconomic and financial variables can be useful leading indicators. The best warning signs of the recent Asian crises were proxies for the vulnerability of the banking and corporate sector. Full-blown banking crises are shown to be associated more with external developments, and domestic variables are the main leading indicators of severe but contained banking distress.
Mr. Charalambos Christofides
,
Mr. Paul Mylonas
,
Ms. Inci Ötker
,
Mr. Liam P. Ebrill
,
Mr. Gerd Schwartz
, and
Mr. Ajai Chopra

Abstract

Poland's economy rebounded dramatically in 1992-93, several years after the nation embarded on a comprehensive program of economic transformation. This paper describes Polan's steps in the areas of public finance, monetary policy and financial sector reform, trade and exchange rate policy, and microeconomic liberalization, as well as the social impact of transition.