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Europe > Montenegro

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Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Front Matter
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
Keywords:
External sector statistics; Foreign direct investment
Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Montenegro: Technical Assistance Report-Report on External Sector Statistics Mission (July 29-August 9, 2024)
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.

A technical assistance mission on external sector statistics was conducted for the Central Bank of Montenegro (CBM) during July 29 to August 9, 2024. The mission established measures to address the major sources for the large net errors and omissions (NEO) and reduced the average NEO during 2021 to 2023 from 9 percent to 1.1 percent of Gross Domestic Product. The mission also assisted the CBM and the Ministry of Finance in preparing the Template for International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity—a statistical dataset that covers reserves-related data comprehensively.
Keywords:
MOF record; CBM approach; draft RDT; market value; review of the data
Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Montenegro: Technical Assistance Report-Report on External Sector Statistics Mission (July 29-August 9, 2024)
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
A technical assistance mission on external sector statistics was conducted for the Central Bank of Montenegro (CBM) during July 29 to August 9, 2024. The mission established measures to address the major sources for the large net errors and omissions (NEO) and reduced the average NEO during 2021 to 2023 from 9 percent to 1.1 percent of Gross Domestic Product. The mission also assisted the CBM and the Ministry of Finance in preparing the Template for International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity—a statistical dataset that covers reserves-related data comprehensively.
Keywords:
Balance of payments; net errors and omissions; Economic Citizenship Program; reserve assets; Template for International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity; Montenegro.; data template; IMF executive directors; CBM plan; CBM record detail; CBM transfer; External sector statistics; Foreign direct investment; Portfolio investment; International investment position; Balance of payments statistics
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Front Matter
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

IMF Country Report No. 24/101

Keywords:
policy judgement; credit growth; IMF's transparency policy; debt net; tourism revenue; Fiscal stance
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Montenegro: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Montenegro
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation discusses that the Montenegrin economy grew robustly by 6 percent in 2023 as consumption remained strong, tourism revenues exceeded pre-pandemic levels, and the influx of relatively affluent Russian and Ukrainian nationals due to Russia’s war in Ukraine contributed to growth. Growth is expected to moderate to 3.7 percent in 2024 and ease further to about 3 percent over the medium term. While system-wide indicators of financial stability are healthy, the Central Bank Governor needs to remain vigilant regarding lingering pockets of vulnerability. In order to better inform policy judgements, trends in domestic advantage, as well as the banking sector’s growing exposure to foreign securities need to be closely monitored. Diversification both within and away from the tourism sector can help decrease the vulnerability of the economy to shocks. A more conducive environment for a small and medium enterprises sector would enable it to benefit from the presence of skilled migrants in the country.
Keywords:
production GDP estimate; EU integration; economic growth prospects; Policy discussion; CBM balance sheet; European Union initiative; Fiscal stance; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Montenegro: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Montenegro
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

1. Montenegro is a strategically located, unilaterally euroized economy. After gaining independence in 2006, the country was buffeted by the Global Financial Crisis. Following a period of tourism-driven growth averaging 4 percent in 2015-19, the economy was hit hard once again by COVID, contracting by over 15 percent in 2020. A strong recovery has taken root since 2021, and tourism has exceeded its pre-pandemic levels. The war in Ukraine has significantly impacted the economy through both real (via robust consumption growth due to migrants) and nominal (via inflation) channels, thereby improving its fiscal position. However, on current policies Montenegro's fiscal position is likely to gradually weaken once again over the medium term.

Keywords:
debt anchor; net acquisition; headline inflation; net credit; net incurrence
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Montenegro: Staff Report for the 2024 Article IV Consultation-Informational Annex
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

MONTENEGRO

Keywords:
MONSTAT report; financial asset; expenditure account; resource constraint; quarterly GDP estimate; Government finance statistics; External sector statistics; Exchange rate arrangements; International investment position
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Statement by Mr. Luc Dresse, Alternate Executive Director for Montenegro and Ms. Maja Ivanovic, Advisor to the Executive Director May 1, 2024
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

On behalf of the Montenegrin authorities, we would like to thank the team led by Mr. Seshadri, for their constructive exchange of views during the mission and the comprehensive staff report on the Article IV Consultation.

Keywords:
EU membership; EU regulation; Montenegrin authorities; outlook from stable; SEPA payment scheme; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Global
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Surviving Low Interest Rates Central Banks in Kosovo and Other Western Balkan Countries: Republic of Kosovo
Mr. Si Guo
Interest income from foreign reserves is one of the main revenue sources for most emerging market central banks. For central banks in the Western Balkan region, the low global interest rates during 2008–2021 negatively affected their revenues, and the impact was more pronounced for central banks in Kosovo, Montenegro, and Bosnia and Herzegovina because they cannot use seigniorage to finance their operations. This paper explores how these central banks coped with the long period of low-interest rates. The main finding is that the decline in interest income from foreign reserves was partially compensated by higher fees, commissions, and other regulatory revenues.
Keywords:
Central bank; Low interest rates; Kosovo; Montenegro; Bosinia; Herzegovina; interest income; central banks in Kosovo; emerging market central banks; rising interest rates; personnel cost-to-GDP ratio; Income; International reserves; Central bank rates; Government securities; Exchange rate arrangements; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Inflation Dynamics in the Western Balkans
Gohar Minasyan
,
Ezgi O. Ozturk
,
Magali Pinat
,
Mengxue Wang
, and
Zeju Zhu
After trailing Euro Area inflation closely in the recent past, inflation in the Western Balkans has accelerated faster since early 2022 on the back of the shocks to global commodity prices, strong recovery from the pandemic, and lingering supply bottlenecks. This paper employs two complementary empirical approaches of an augmented Phillips curve and structural VAR, adapting them to the data availability and country specificities of the Western Balkans, to analyze the inflation dynamics in the region. It finds that international food prices affect not only headline but also core inflation as well as inflation expectations. Further, inflation in the Western Balkans is not just determined by foreign shocks, and domestic factors, aggregate demand shocks in particular, have a significant impact on inflation. These findings imply a possible role for policies to temporarily limit an immediate and complete pass-through of international to domestic food prices while also stressing the importance of an appropriate domestic macroeconomic policy mix to keep inflation expectations anchored and safeguard credibility in the face of high inflation persistence.
Keywords:
Inflation; Western Balkans; international food price shocks; commodity price shocks; Phillips curve; panel data; structural VAR; inflation expectation; inflation dynamics; inflations determinant; inflation development; inflation in the Western Balkans; Food prices; Energy prices; Nominal effective exchange rate; Global; Europe