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Europe > Montenegro

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Inflation Dynamics in the Western Balkans
Gohar Minasyan
,
Ezgi O. Ozturk
,
Magali Pinat
,
Mengxue Wang
, and
Zeju Zhu
After trailing Euro Area inflation closely in the recent past, inflation in the Western Balkans has accelerated faster since early 2022 on the back of the shocks to global commodity prices, strong recovery from the pandemic, and lingering supply bottlenecks. This paper employs two complementary empirical approaches of an augmented Phillips curve and structural VAR, adapting them to the data availability and country specificities of the Western Balkans, to analyze the inflation dynamics in the region. It finds that international food prices affect not only headline but also core inflation as well as inflation expectations. Further, inflation in the Western Balkans is not just determined by foreign shocks, and domestic factors, aggregate demand shocks in particular, have a significant impact on inflation. These findings imply a possible role for policies to temporarily limit an immediate and complete pass-through of international to domestic food prices while also stressing the importance of an appropriate domestic macroeconomic policy mix to keep inflation expectations anchored and safeguard credibility in the face of high inflation persistence.
Keywords:
Inflation; Western Balkans; international food price shocks; commodity price shocks; Phillips curve; panel data; structural VAR; inflation expectation; inflation dynamics; inflations determinant; inflation development; inflation in the Western Balkans; Food prices; Energy prices; Nominal effective exchange rate; Global; Europe
Cover Regional Economic Issues, April 2015, Europe
Regional Economic Issues, April 2015, Europe
The Western Balkans: 15 Years of Economic Transition
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Abstract

This report analyses the main economic developments and achievements in the Western Balkan countries, and lays out the key macroeconomic policy challenges for the future.

Keywords:
REO; western Balkan countries; Balkans; country; economy; economic growth; IMF staff estimate; foreign exchange; fiscal policy; IMF assistance; Balkan economy; private sector; Credit; Labor markets; Capital inflows; Credit booms; Inflation; Global; Europe; Baltics
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Slovenia: Financial System Stability Assessment
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
and
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The Slovenian financial system has been hard hit by the crisis. Banks remained highly vulnerable to continued credit deterioration and refinancing risks. Strengthening of financial condition of banks should be the short-term priority. The financial restructuring should be followed by privatization of state-controlled banks. The supervision of financial institutions should be complemented with a macroprudential overview geared toward overall stability of the financial system. The crisis preparedness and management framework should be improved, and risks to systemic financial stability should be identified.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; bank lending; resolution tool kit; bridge bank; bank borrowing; bank equity; bank resolution tool kit; banking system; state-controlled bank; bank assets; capital market; bank downgrade; bank subsidiary; bank-restructuring transaction; Commercial banks; Stress testing; Loans; Insurance companies; Real estate prices; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Albania: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
Inflation in Southeastern European (SEE) countries has been comparable with euro area inflation, partly owing to on the one hand, high initial price levels. On the other hand, the exchange rate regime is of paramount importance, including the inflation-targeting regime pursued in Albania. The analysis also explores additional heterogeneity between SEE and other regions. Two fiscal rules—a debt rule and an expenditure rule with a debt brake—are discussed in the context of Albania’s current economic outlook. Both rules will contribute toward enhancing fiscal sustainability in Albania.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; expenditure rule; rule; debt rule; SEE region; price level index; SEE country; GDP projection; excl. Serbia; Inflation; Fiscal rules; Exchange rate arrangements; Eastern Europe; Middle East; North Africa; Central Asia; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Serbia: Staff Report for the 2006 Article IV Consultation and Post–Program Monitoring Discussions
International Monetary Fund
Failed corporate structures lie at the heart of Serbia’s economic difficulties. But the government emphasized instead the need for public investment and labor tax cuts. Capital inflows pose additional challenges. External concerns leave little room to fiscal maneuver. This puts the focus on public expenditure reform. Recent changes in monetary arrangements are appropriate. These steps would best be taken further—toward inflation targeting. However, the envisaged fiscal relaxation calls much of this into question. Serbia has made significant progress in recent years.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; GDP; current account; disinflation; deficit; inflation expectation; banking privatization; fund staff projection; privatization agency; Inflation; Current account balance; Fiscal stance; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
IMF Executive Board Concludes 2005 Article IV Consultation with Serbia and Montenegro
International Monetary Fund

This 2005 Article IV Consultation highlights that macroeconomic imbalances in Serbia and Montenegro widened in 2004, putting at risk some of the impressive earlier achievements. Growth, about 5 percent in nonagriculture since 2002, has been fueled by a surge in domestic demand. Lack of competitive domestic production has led to increased imports and a widening current account deficit. The main policy challenge is to maintain macroeconomic stability while accelerating structural reform. Fiscal policy needs to be tightened substantially, and its flexibility increased by reducing the large share of nondiscretionary spending.

Keywords:
ISCR; CR; deficit; enterprise; government; privatization revenue; enterprise restructuring; demand management; privatization receipt; rising inflation; bank privatization; utility company; Exchange rates; Current account deficits; Structural reforms; Inflation; Current account balance
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Serbia and Montenegro: Staff Report for the 2005 Article IV Consultation
International Monetary Fund
This 2005 Article IV Consultation highlights that macroeconomic imbalances in Serbia and Montenegro widened in 2004, putting at risk some of the impressive earlier achievements. Growth, about 5 percent in nonagriculture since 2002, has been fueled by a surge in domestic demand. Lack of competitive domestic production has led to increased imports and a widening current account deficit. The main policy challenge is to maintain macroeconomic stability while accelerating structural reform. Fiscal policy needs to be tightened substantially, and its flexibility increased by reducing the large share of nondiscretionary spending.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; deficit; enterprise; government; privatization revenue; enterprise restructuring; revenue collection; envisaged policy package; authorities of Serbia and Montenegro; exchange rate depreciation; Current account deficits; Inflation; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Serbia and Montenegro: Fifth Review Under the Extended Arrangement, Financing Assurances Review, Request for Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, and Rephasing of Purchases
International Monetary Fund

This 2005 Article IV Consultation highlights that macroeconomic imbalances in Serbia and Montenegro widened in 2004, putting at risk some of the impressive earlier achievements. Growth, about 5 percent in nonagriculture since 2002, has been fueled by a surge in domestic demand. Lack of competitive domestic production has led to increased imports and a widening current account deficit. The main policy challenge is to maintain macroeconomic stability while accelerating structural reform. Fiscal policy needs to be tightened substantially, and its flexibility increased by reducing the large share of nondiscretionary spending.

Keywords:
ISCR; CR; deficit; enterprise; government; privatization revenue; enterprise restructuring; SM authorities; excess demand; SM authority; foreign currency; monetary policy; Current account deficits; Inflation; Value-added tax
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Serbia and Montenegro: Staff Report for the 2005 Article IV Consultation
International Monetary Fund

This 2005 Article IV Consultation highlights that macroeconomic imbalances in Serbia and Montenegro widened in 2004, putting at risk some of the impressive earlier achievements. Growth, about 5 percent in nonagriculture since 2002, has been fueled by a surge in domestic demand. Lack of competitive domestic production has led to increased imports and a widening current account deficit. The main policy challenge is to maintain macroeconomic stability while accelerating structural reform. Fiscal policy needs to be tightened substantially, and its flexibility increased by reducing the large share of nondiscretionary spending.

Keywords:
ISCR; CR; deficit; enterprise; government; privatization revenue; enterprise restructuring; demand management; SM authorities; excess demand; SM authority; incomes policy; Current account deficits; Inflation
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Statement by Fritz Zurbrügg, Executive Director for Serbia and Montenegro and Srboljub Antic, Senior Advisor to Executive Director
International Monetary Fund

The Fourth Review Under the Extended Arrangement, Financing Assurances Review, and Request for Waiver of Performance Criteria for Serbia and Montenegro are discussed. The agreed tighter fiscal, monetary, and incomes policies should cool off wage and credit growth, which are driving the demand for imports. The bold resumption of structural reforms should over time help increase exports, which remain exceptionally low in reference to GDP. The fragile political situation could affect the ability of the reformist minority government to press ahead with bold reforms.

Keywords:
ISCR; CR; prefix; lending; fiscal policy; subsidy cut; expenditure cut; state influence; authorities of Serbia and Montenegro; deficit target; Inflation; Current account deficits; Fiscal consolidation; Privatization