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Europe > Montenegro

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Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Montenegro: Technical Assistance Report-Report on External Sector Statistics Mission (July 29-August 9, 2024)
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
A technical assistance mission on external sector statistics was conducted for the Central Bank of Montenegro (CBM) during July 29 to August 9, 2024. The mission established measures to address the major sources for the large net errors and omissions (NEO) and reduced the average NEO during 2021 to 2023 from 9 percent to 1.1 percent of Gross Domestic Product. The mission also assisted the CBM and the Ministry of Finance in preparing the Template for International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity—a statistical dataset that covers reserves-related data comprehensively.
Keywords:
Balance of payments; net errors and omissions; Economic Citizenship Program; reserve assets; Template for International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity; Montenegro.; data template; IMF executive directors; CBM plan; CBM record detail; CBM transfer; External sector statistics; Foreign direct investment; Portfolio investment; International investment position; Balance of payments statistics
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Surviving Low Interest Rates Central Banks in Kosovo and Other Western Balkan Countries: Republic of Kosovo
Mr. Si Guo
Interest income from foreign reserves is one of the main revenue sources for most emerging market central banks. For central banks in the Western Balkan region, the low global interest rates during 2008–2021 negatively affected their revenues, and the impact was more pronounced for central banks in Kosovo, Montenegro, and Bosnia and Herzegovina because they cannot use seigniorage to finance their operations. This paper explores how these central banks coped with the long period of low-interest rates. The main finding is that the decline in interest income from foreign reserves was partially compensated by higher fees, commissions, and other regulatory revenues.
Keywords:
Central bank; Low interest rates; Kosovo; Montenegro; Bosinia; Herzegovina; interest income; central banks in Kosovo; emerging market central banks; rising interest rates; personnel cost-to-GDP ratio; Income; International reserves; Central bank rates; Government securities; Exchange rate arrangements; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Inflation Dynamics in the Western Balkans
Gohar Minasyan
,
Ezgi O. Ozturk
,
Magali Pinat
,
Mengxue Wang
, and
Zeju Zhu
After trailing Euro Area inflation closely in the recent past, inflation in the Western Balkans has accelerated faster since early 2022 on the back of the shocks to global commodity prices, strong recovery from the pandemic, and lingering supply bottlenecks. This paper employs two complementary empirical approaches of an augmented Phillips curve and structural VAR, adapting them to the data availability and country specificities of the Western Balkans, to analyze the inflation dynamics in the region. It finds that international food prices affect not only headline but also core inflation as well as inflation expectations. Further, inflation in the Western Balkans is not just determined by foreign shocks, and domestic factors, aggregate demand shocks in particular, have a significant impact on inflation. These findings imply a possible role for policies to temporarily limit an immediate and complete pass-through of international to domestic food prices while also stressing the importance of an appropriate domestic macroeconomic policy mix to keep inflation expectations anchored and safeguard credibility in the face of high inflation persistence.
Keywords:
Inflation; Western Balkans; international food price shocks; commodity price shocks; Phillips curve; panel data; structural VAR; inflation expectation; inflation dynamics; inflations determinant; inflation development; inflation in the Western Balkans; Food prices; Energy prices; Nominal effective exchange rate; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Montenegro: Technical Assistance Report-External Sector Statistics
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s Statistics Department (STA) conducted a technical assistance (TA) mission to the Central Bank of Montenegro (CBM) for the compilation of external sector statistics (ESS) during April 28–May 13, 2021. The mission was funded by Eurostat to meet the European Union (EU)’s acquis1 from the ESS perspective. The mission focused on the compilation of quarterly international investment position (IIP),2 and assisted the CBM in preparing the Reserves Data Template (RDT) as well as in recording of financial intermediary services indirectly measured (FISIM) in balance of payments statistics.
Keywords:
BIS LBS; CBM data; IMF's Statistics Department; CBM staff; data template; International investment position; Balance of payments statistics; Foreign direct investment; External sector statistics
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Montenegro: Request for Purchase under the Rapid Financing Instrument; Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Montenegro
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The COVID-19 pandemic will hit Montenegro hard, as tourism is a key industry. Fiscal space has eroded in recent years due to large public capital outlays, and the COVID-19 crisis is creating new budgetary strains as health spending and other expenditures rise, while the economic contraction lowers revenues.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; financing; emergency financing request; IMF lending tracker; assistance; liquidity withdrawal requirement rate; financing gap; Executive Board discussion; Fiscal stance; Capital spending; Tourism; Global; COVID-19; Financial sector
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Montenegro: Technical Assistance Report-Report on External Sector Statistics Mission
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
The IMF’s Statistics Department (STA) conducted a technical assistance mission to support the Central Bank of Montenegro (CBM) for the compilation of external sector statistics in Montenegro during January 20–31, 2020. The mission recommended that the CBM compile preliminary quarterly International Investment Position data and submit them to STA for review by the end of December 2020. The mission recommended that the CBM start recording the Economic Citizenship Program (ECP) according to the characteristics of the payments from the applicants by the end of March 2020. The ECP was just introduced in 2019 and details of the program were not made available during the mission. The mission advised that the payments from applicants for the ECP should be recorded in services, current or capital transfers, or direct or portfolio investment, according to the characteristics of the payments. The CBM plans to start recording data based on the information obtained from the international transaction reporting system (ITRS). The mission advised that the CBM approach the agency in charge of the ECP to collect precise information on the characteristics of the payments and cross-check the data from the ITRS.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; CBM start; Montenegro; asset; CBM use LBS data; ITRS; CBM plan; CBM record; loan assets; Foreign direct investment; External sector statistics; International investment position; Portfolio investment; Reserve assets
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Montenegro: Technical Assistance Report-Report on External Sector Statistics Mission
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
To support the compilation of external sector statistics (ESS) in Montenegro, the International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s Statistics Department (STA) conducted a technical assistance (TA) mission during December 4–15, 2017. The mission was requested by the Central Bank of Montenegro (CBM), the main ESS compiling agency, and supported by the IMF’s European Department. STA’s mission for the Enhanced General Data Dissemination System (e-GDDS) during June 28-July 4, 2017 also suggested TA for Montenegro to start compiling international investment position (IIP) and external debt statistics (EDS). The mission focused on assisting the CBM in preparing IIP, EDS, Reserves Data Template (RDT), and addressing persistent net errors and omissions. Compilation of IIP and EDS is required to be qualified for Threshold 2 of the e-GDDS. Montenegro does not participate in the Eurosystem, but it is fully eurorized. Euro circulating in Montenegro should be included in the assets of the IIP for Montenegro, but difficulty in estimating the amount had been preventing the CBM from compiling IIP for several years.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; balance of payments; Montenegro; position data; portfolio investment position; CBM view; balance of payments division; CBM plan; FDI survey; bank transfer; equity security liability; Foreign direct investment; External sector statistics; International investment position; Currencies; Portfolio investment
Cover Negative Euro Area Interest Rates and Spillovers on Western Balkan Central Bank Policies and Instruments
Negative Euro Area Interest Rates and Spillovers on Western Balkan Central Bank Policies and Instruments
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

Proceedings of a conference co-hosted by the Bank of Albania and the International Monetary Fund in May 2017.

Keywords:
SEM; interest rate; euro; central bank; rate; bank; interest rate differential; interest rate environment; ECB monetary policy; FX reserve; risk-taking channel; Currencies; Negative interest rates; Financial sector stability; Exchange rates; Central bank policy rate; Global; Europe; Western Europe; Eastern Europe; Baltics; ECB monetary policy implementation framework; International reserves
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Montenegro: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper focuses on Montenegro’s export sector performance and challenges. Montenegro has run a persistent trade deficit since its independence. Montenegro’s goods exports have decreased, while goods imports have been more or less stable. A comparison reveals a relatively weak recovery of goods exports for Montenegro. Montenegro’s goods exports to the euro area have declined over time despite euroization. Foreign demand explains services exports well, but less so goods exports. Business climate surveys indicate high nonprice barriers in Montenegro’s export sector. The share of high-value-added export goods has been diminishing over time. Services exports also signal narrow productivity gains. Weak productivity growth may hinder the export sector.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; goods export; goods; Montenegro; export destination; demand model; export sector; export demand equation; export share; export goods; exports goods value; Exports; Service exports; Personal income; Export performance; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Does A Regional Trade Agreement Lessen or Exacerbate Growth Volatility? An Empirical Investigation
Mr. Kangni R Kpodar
and
Patrick A. Imam
This paper assesses how regional trade agreements (RTAs) impact growth volatility on a worldwide sample of 170 countries with data spanning the period 1978-2012. Notwithstanding concerns that trade openness through RTAs can heighten exposure to shocks, in particular when it leads to increased product specialization, RTAs through enhanced policy credibility, improved policy coordination, and reduced risk of conflicts can ease growth volatility. Empirical estimations suggest the benefits outweigh the costs as RTAs are consistently associated with lower growth volatility, after controlling for trade openness and other determinants of growth volatility. Furthermore, regression results also suggest that countries that are more prone to shocks are more likely to join a RTA, in particular with countries with relatively less volatile growth, additionally enhancing the stabilization effect.
Keywords:
WP; growth volatility; regional trade agreement; trade openness; RTA member; trade partner; standard deviation; mega-RTAs agreement; growth rate; RTA dummy variable; affect growth volatility; trade creation; RTA member country; Regional trade; Exports; Imports; Trade agreements; Terms of trade; West Africa; Global